Can Apple and A.I. make Baidu cool again?


百度长期以来一直被视为陪跑者，但随着政治环境和科技风向的转变，该公司的命运有望迎来大逆转。


百度与苹果公司就在中国使用其聊天机器人技术进行了探索性谈判。

一直以来，苹果公司(Apple)一直是酷炫科技界的典范：设计时尚、实用性强、拥有众多拥趸。被称为中国版谷歌(Google)的百度(Baidu)则不然，多年来该公司的发展一直处于落后状态。 6park.com
Apple has long been the epitome of tech-sector cool: sleek design, usability, and legions of devotees. Baidu, China’s answer to Google, not so much—it has been a growth laggard for years. 6park.com
    
不过，人工智能(AI)的蓬勃发展可能会改变这种状况。除了与三星电子(Samsung)的现有合作外，百度还与苹果公司就在中国使用其聊天机器人技术进行了探索性谈判。与此同时，AI云收入也开始充实百度的收入。 6park.com
But the artificial intelligence boom might change that. The company has held exploratory talks with Apple over using its chatbot technology in China, on top of an existing cooperation with Samsung. And A.I. cloud revenue is starting to pad its top line.



百度曾被视为中国科技公司的领头羊之一，与阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和腾讯(Tencent)组成了的“BAT”三巨头，但在21世纪头十年的中期和后期，百度在增长和股价表现方面均落后于其他两家公司。 6park.com
While once seen as one of China’s leading tech companies—making up the so-called BATs along with Alibaba and Tencent—Baidu dropped behind the other two in terms of growth and share price performance in the mid and late 2010s. 6park.com
    
然而，就在另外两家在监管和政治障碍面前步履蹒跚之时，百度可能终于找到了超越他们的方法。ChatGPT掀起的狂潮在中国催生了许多克隆产品，而百度长期以来一直在投资AI领域，该公司去年推出自己的AI聊天机器人文心一言(Ernie Bot)也就顺理成章了。 6park.com
But as its peers stumble over regulatory and political roadblocks, Baidu may finally have found a way to outperform them. The frenzy kicked off by ChatGPT has spawned many clones in China and Baidu has long invested in AI, so it is only natural that it launched its own version called Ernie Bot last year. 6park.com
   
与此同时，文心一言似乎已经做好了充当领头羊的准备。三星已经在中国使用文心一言为其最新款Galaxy手机提供一些AI功能。苹果公司可能也在考虑将这项技术用于在中国销售的iPhone和Mac。据《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)上周报道，两家公司已经就此进行了初步会谈。苹果公司自己尚未证实这些讨论，一家中国官方媒体周二称，到目前为止，双方尚未达成协议。百度不予置评。 6park.com
And Ernie seems well placed to stay ahead of its competition. Samsung is already using Ernie to power some AI features in China for its newest Galaxy phone. Apple may also be eyeing the technology for its iPhones and Macs in China. The Journal reported last week that the companies have held preliminary talks on the subject. Apple itself has yet to confirm the talks and a Chinese state-owned paper on Tuesday said a deal hasn’t, so far, been reached. Baidu declined to comment. 6park.com
   
中国禁用ChatGPT和谷歌的Gemini，这一事实毋庸置疑是有帮助的。但如果真能获得苹果公司的认可，那么将巩固文心一言在中国的领先地位。 6park.com
Needless to say, the fact that the likes of ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini aren’t allowed in China helps. But Apple’s endorsement, if it materializes, would cement Ernie Bot’s leading position in the country. 6park.com
   
与其他生成式AI聊天机器人一样，百度也面临着找到文心一言最佳盈利模式的问题，尤其是考虑到训练此类模型的高昂成本。该公司表示，生成式AI有助于改善其搜索体验，增加广告收入。 6park.com
As is the case for other generative AI chatbots, Baidu faces the problem of finding the best way to make money from Ernie, especially given the high costs of training such models. The company says generative AI helps improve its search experience and drive advertising revenue. 6park.com
   
向云客户提供AI服务能带来更直接、更可量化的收益。去年第四季度，百度与AI相关的云业务收入为人民币6.56亿元（约合9100万美元）。这个数字还很小，只占百度该季度总收入的2%，但增速很快。该公司首席执行官李彦宏预计，今年与AI相关的收入将增至人民币数十亿元。一个关键因素是百度能否吸引更多的开发者转向该公司的云服务，特别是那些专注于AI技术的开发者。 6park.com
A more immediate, quantifiable benefit comes from offering AI services to its cloud customers. Baidu made 656 million yuan, the equivalent of $91 million, in the fourth quarter from AI-related cloud revenue. That amount is still pretty small—only 2% of Baidu’s total revenue in the quarter—but it is growing fast. Robin Li, Baidu’s chief executive, expects AI-related revenue to grow to several billion yuan this year. One key factor is whether the company can attract more developers, particularly those focusing on AI, to move to Baidu’s cloud services. 6park.com
   
按照美国标准，百度股价一直很便宜，基于未来12个月预期收益的市盈率约为10倍。百度的主要广告业务面临着来自阿里巴巴、腾讯和快速崛起的抖音的激烈竞争。抖音是TikTok在中国国内的版本。 6park.com
Baidu’s stock has been trading cheaply by U.S. standards—around 10 times next 12 months’ forecast earnings. Its main advertising business faces strong competition from Alibaba, Tencent and fast-rising Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok. 6park.com
   
但百度的核心业务仍是一头“现金牛”。百度去年产生了约30亿美元的自由现金流，坐拥约180亿美元的净现金和短期投资，相当于百度370亿美元市值的近一半。 6park.com
But its core business remains a cash cow. Baidu generated around $3 billion of free cash flow last year and is sitting on around $18 billion of net cash and short-term investments, equal to nearly half of its $37 billion market capitalization. 6park.com
   
如果百度能继续找到新方法来利用在AI领域的领先优势赚钱，同时又能保持较低的成本，那么最终可能会再次受到投资者青睐。届时这个中国科技巨头将会摆脱落后者形象，迎来命运的一次大逆转。 6park.com
If Baidu continues to find new ways to make money out of its AI leadership, while keeping costs down, investors may finally begin to take a look again. That would be a dramatic reversal of fortune for Baidu, the onetime ugly duckling of Chinese Big Tech.