A way for energy investors to ride the AI boom


那些希望逐浪AI热潮的投资者已将目光转向了市场上一个沉寂的角落——拥有并运营发电厂的企业。


位于加利福尼亚州莫斯兰丁的Vistra储能设施电池大楼外的电源逆变器和电缆。

那些希望逐浪人工智能(AI)热潮的投资者已将目光转向了市场上一个沉寂的角落——拥有并运营发电厂的企业。这一领域的走高是合理的吗？ 6park.com
Investors looking to ride the artificial-intelligence wave have turned their eyes to a sleepier corner of the market—companies that own and operate power plants. Is the run-up justified?



今年迄今为止，AI热已将Vistra股价推高了85%。这虽不及英伟达(Nvidia)令人瞠目的92%涨幅，但也远高于微软(Microsoft )同期12%的涨幅。拥有最具竞争力核能发电能力的美国最大核电站所有者Constellation Energy股价今年已累计上升60%，同期NRG Energy涨了32%。 6park.com
AI hype has helped lift Vistra stock 85% year to date. That falls short of Nvidia’s eye-watering 92% surge, but is far greater than the 12% lift that Microsoft has seen over that time. Constellation Energy, the owner of the U.S.’s largest fleet of competitive nuclear generation capacity, has rallied 60% year to date, while NRG Energy is up 32%. 6park.com
  
  
得益于能源效率的提高，美国的电力需求自2010年以来一直相对平稳。现在，AI带来的数据中心增长前景，以及《芯片法案》(Chips Act)推动的制造业近岸化和供暖、交通等领域的电气化，料将推动电力需求增长。麦肯锡(McKinsey)、波士顿咨询公司(BCG)和标普全球大宗商品(S&P Global Commodity Insights)都预测，到2030年，与数据中心相关的电力需求将以13%至15%的复合年增长率增长。PJM Interconnection预计，未来10年的总电力需求年增长率将达到2.4%，高于一年前预测的1.4%。该公司的营运范围包括数据中心密集的弗吉尼亚州。 6park.com
U.S. electricity demand has been relatively flat since 2010, thanks to energy efficiency. Now, the prospect of data-center growth due to AI, as well as a Chips Act-driven nearshoring of manufacturing and the electrification of things like heating and transportation, are expected to drive electricity demand growth. McKinsey, BCG and S&P Global Commodity Insights all project electricity demand tied to data centers to increase at a compound annual growth rate of between 13% and 15% through 2030. PJM Interconnection, whose jurisdiction includes data center-heavy Virginia, expects total electricity demand to grow at an annual rate of 2.4% over the next 10 years, up from its year-ago forecast of 1.4%. 6park.com
    
在此之际，Wolfe Research股票分析师Steve Fleishman指出，美国电力市场已连续七年处于紧张状态。与此同时，由于电网运营商面临长期积压，新发电能力从规划阶段到商业运营所需的时间只会越来越长。 6park.com
This comes as the U.S. power market has been tightening for seven straight years, notes Steve Fleishman, equity analyst at Wolfe Research. Meanwhile, the time it takes for new capacity to go from the planning stage to commercial operation has only gotten longer as grid operators face long backlogs. 6park.com
   
Talen Energy与亚马逊公司(Amazon.com)本月早些时候宣布了一项核电购买协议，这明确显示出随时可用的清洁电力可收取高价。据Reaves Asset Management分析师Rodney Rebello估计，基于已公布的条款，与其核电厂在当今电力市场上所能获得的价格相比，Talen Energy似乎至少得到了50%的溢价。Reaves Asset Management管理着一家专注于公用事业的ETF。 6park.com
A nuclear-power purchase agreement announced earlier this month between Talen Energy and Amazon.com was a clear signal that clean, always-available power can command lofty rates. Based on the announced terms, Talen Energy appears to be getting at least a 50% premium over what its nuclear power plant would otherwise get in the power market today, according to estimates from Rodney Rebello, analyst for Reaves Asset Management, which manages a utilities-focused ETF.



标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)董事总经理Aneesh Prabhu指出，任何电力净多头公司，即那些售电能力大于购电义务（例如代表零售能源客户）的公司，必然会在电力需求上升时获得助益。属于这类股票的上市公司很少，这也许就是涨势集中的原因。据Prabhu，Vistra和Constellation属于这一类公司，NRG也是其中一员，不过该公司的发电能力较少。 6park.com
Any company that is net long power—that is, those that have more capacity to sell power than the obligation to buy power (say, on behalf of retail energy customers)—are bound to experience tailwinds as power demand rises, notes Aneesh Prabhu, managing director at S&P Global Ratings. Few listed companies fall into this bucket, which might explain the concentrated rally. Vistra and Constellation are part of this club, as is NRG, though it has less generation capacity, according to Prabhu. 6park.com
   
对订单的第一个影响是，发电商与数据中心签订新购电协议时，可能会发现合同价格存在溢价。那些拥有清洁、随时可用的核电发电能力的企业在这方面更有优势。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最近的一份报告显示，核电站不仅已经可以获得冷却水，而且往往位于大型地点，使企业能够将数据中心合用同一地点（节省接入电网的成本）。除Constellation和Vistra外，PSEG也拥有适合数据中心的核电容量。随着这些合同将现有发电能力从电网中抽走，任何拥有发电能力的公司应该都会从更高的电价中获益。 6park.com
The first order impact is that any generator signing new power purchase agreements with data centers is likely to see a premium on the contracted prices. Those with clean, always-available nuclear power generation have a leg up here. Not only do nuclear power plants already have access to cooling water, but they also tend to be on large sites that make it feasible for companies to co-locate data centers (saving them the cost of connecting to the grid), according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley. In addition to Constellation and Vistra, PSEG has nuclear capacity suitable for data centers. As those contracts pull out existing capacity from the grid, any company that owns power generation should benefit from higher electricity prices.



AES和NextEra Energy等可再生能源和电池存储开发商也可能成为受益者，因为仅靠核能发电将不足以满足所有数据中心的能源需求。在经历了高利率和供应链瓶颈的恐慌之后，这些公司的股价并没有上涨那么多。 6park.com
Renewable and battery storage developers such as AES and NextEra Energy are likely beneficiaries, too, because nuclear generation alone won’t be enough to meet all data-center energy needs. Their shares haven’t rallied as much after jitters regarding high interest rates and supply-chain bottlenecks. 6park.com
   
现场燃料电池供电的供应商Bloom Energy是另一个潜在受益者。帮助建设输电线路的Quanta Services年初至今已上涨了18%。虽然受监管的公用事业公司不会出现象不受监管的发电公司那样的上涨，但电网所需的投资增加可能意味着利润增长更快。 6park.com
Bloom Energy, provider of on-site fuel cell-powered electricity, is another potential beneficiary. And Quanta Services, which helps build transmission lines, has rallied 18% year to date. While regulated utilities won’t see the same kind of upside that unregulated power generators do, the rising investment needed in the grid will likely mean faster profit growth. 6park.com
   
任何希望从人工智能题材中获利的人，不妨在自己的投资篮子里保留一篮子有电力敞口的股票。 6park.com
Anyone looking to profit off the AI theme would do well to keep a basket of electricity-exposed stocks in their basket.