How China Could Swamp India’s Chip Ambitions


印度正准备在半导体领域大展拳脚，但中美紧张局势的影响和中国的雄厚财力可能会阻碍印度在这一领域的发展。


总理莫迪表示，印度有望成为芯片制造领域的全球领导者。

印度最大企业集团塔塔集团(Tata Group)耗资110亿美元的半导体工厂上周破土动工时，总理莫迪(Narendra Modi)表示印度有望成为这一行业的全球领先者。 6park.com
When India’s largest conglomerate, Tata Group, broke ground on a $11 billion semiconductor factory this week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the country was poised to become a world leader in the sector. 6park.com
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他的这一芯片梦想可能被无情地打碎。 6park.com
He might be in for a rude awakening. 6park.com
     
塔塔集团并非单打独斗，将与台湾力晶积成电子制造股份有限公司(Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing)合作生产28纳米及以上老一代成熟制程芯片，这将提高成功的概率。 6park.com
Tata isn’t going it alone, which raises the probability of success. It will partner with Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing to make older-generation, mature-node chips, which have features measuring 28 nanometers or wider. 6park.com
    
问题在于，尖端芯片发展雄心一直受制于美国和欧洲出口管控的中国，对成熟制程芯片制造领域的投资正达到惊人的规模。这会压缩各方的利润空间，尤其会让规模较小的新参与者处境艰难。 6park.com
The problem is that China, whose ambitions in cutting-edge chips have been stymied by U.S. and European export controls, is pouring capital into legacy chip making on a breathtaking scale. That will compress margins for everyone—and make life especially difficult for new small-scale players. 6park.com
    
根据研究咨询机构龙洲经讯(GaveKal Dragonomics)的数据，2024年中国新增芯片产能将超过世界其他国家和地区的增量总和，每月将比2023年同期多产出100万块晶圆，而且都是成熟制程芯片。塔塔集团计划每月生产5万块晶圆。行业跟踪机构集邦科技(TrendForce)预计，到2027年，中国在全球成熟制程芯片生产中所占份额将从2023年的31%升至39%。 6park.com
China will add more chip-making capacity than the rest of the world combined in 2024, according to research consulting firm Gavekal Dragonomics: one million more wafers a month than in 2023—all mature nodes. Tata plans to make 50,000 wafers a month. Industry tracker TrendForce projects that China’s share of global mature-node production will grow from 31% in 2023 to 39% in 2027.



中国在芯片生产领域的积极扩张正值成熟制程芯片市场供应已经充足之际。AI革命推动先进制程芯片需求迅猛增长，但成熟制程芯片另当别论。据龙洲经讯的数据，成熟制程芯片生产商的产能利用率已从2020年的近100%降至目前的65-75%。 6park.com
China’s aggressive expansion comes at a time when the market for legacy chips is already well supplied. The artificial-intelligence revolution is supercharging demand for advanced chips, but older ones are another matter. Utilization rates for producers of mature-node chips have fallen from nearly 100% in 2020 to 65-75% at present, according to Gavekal. 6park.com
    
中国政府规模超1,500亿美元的激励措施将帮助生产商吸收损失。但印度将难以为这样一个资本密集型的新兴产业提供如此多资金，尤其是考虑到印度政府的债务负担已然沉重，并且基础设施建设的资金需求巨大。这些基础设施方面的难题也对芯片制造过程构成直接挑战。可靠的水电供应必不可少，因为停电不仅会中断运营，还可能损坏生产中的设备和晶圆。塔塔集团的上述项目已准备好接受政府数十亿美元的资助。 6park.com
China’s government incentives—worth more than $150 billion—will help producers absorb losses. But India would struggle to shower such a capital-intensive infant industry with that kind of cash, especially given its already high government debt and enormous funding needs for infrastructure in general. Those infrastructure challenges represent a direct challenge to the chip-making process, too. Dependable water and power are essential—power outages not only disrupt operations but can damage equipment and wafers in production. The Tata project is already poised to absorb billions of dollars’ worth of state funding. 6park.com
     
上游工业产能缺乏是印度面临的另一道障碍。例如，印度的化工和天然气生产商已在生产许多半导体制造所需的化学品。但据总部位于华盛顿特区的信息技术与创新基金会(Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, 简称ITIF)发布的一份由业界资助的报告，印度缺乏将纯度提高到半导体级别的精炼能力。ITIF指出，从国外采购会大幅提高成本。 6park.com
A lack of upstream industrial capacity is another hindrance. India’s chemical and gas producers, for example, already produce many chemicals required for semiconductor manufacturing. But India lacks the refining capacity to boost purity levels to semiconductor grade, according to an industry-funded report by the Washington, D.C.-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Foreign sourcing can substantially raise costs, the ITIF says. 6park.com
    
对中国芯片征收高额关税这种保护主义做法可能是一种解决方案。但正如西方国家过去两年在对俄贸易中懊恼地认识到的那样，控制成熟制程芯片的贸易流动并非易事。腐败以及通过第三国钻制度的空子将具有极大的诱惑。即使假定关税制度能如愿奏效，也会使印度不断壮大的电子业务的其他方面处于严重劣势。 6park.com
Protectionism—i.e., big tariffs on Chinese chips—might be one solution. But as Western nations have learned to their chagrin over the past two years with Russia, controlling trade flows of legacy chips is difficult. The incentives for corruption and gaming the system through third countries would be enormous. And even assuming a tariff system worked as intended, it would put the rest of India’s burgeoning electronics business at a serious disadvantage. 6park.com
    
印度电子与半导体协会(India Electronics & Semiconductor Association)主席Ashok Chandak认为，塔塔集团的成功将对吸引其他芯片制造商来印度至关重要，它必须要克服巨大的挑战，这样后来者才能拥有更多便利。ITIF称，印度有可能在未来五年内投产两到三家成熟制程芯片工厂。 6park.com
According to Ashok Chandak, president of the India Electronics & Semiconductor Association, Tata’s success will be critical to attracting other chip makers to India—and it will have to surmount big challenges so it becomes easier for those that follow. The ITIF says India is likely to commission two to three plants for mature-node chips within the next five years. 6park.com
    
但中国可能会给这些雄心泼冷水。在美光(Micron)等外国公司的助力下，在要求较低的芯片封装和测试领域站稳脚跟，对印度公司来说是明智之举。将政府稀缺的资金用于哺育需要大量资金、仍在襁褓中的芯片制造厂，而不是一般的基础设施建设，风险可能要大得多。 6park.com
But China could pour cold water on those ambitions. Gaining a foothold in the less demanding area of chip packaging and testing—with the help of foreign firms like Micron—makes good sense for Indian companies. Spending scarce government funds babysitting cash-hungry infant chip-fabrication plants, rather than on infrastructure in general, could be a far riskier move.