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What Is TikTok Worth? Some Say $20 Billion, Others Say $100 Billion
答案部分取决于TikTok是否将美国业务和国际业务捆绑在一起出售，以及是否包含算法。
TikTok位于加州卡尔弗城的办公室。 Now that President Biden has signed legislation forcing the sale of TikTok’s U.S. operations, any potential deal raises a big question: How much is the popular video-sharing app worth? 6park.com
美国总统拜登(Joe Biden)已签署强制出售TikTok美国业务的法案，那么任何潜在的出售交易都面临一大疑问：这款热门的视频分享应用到底值多少钱？ 6park.com
思考这个问题的人可能要考虑几个金额很大、但差异也很大的数字。一位潜在买家曾提议以200亿美元的初始报价收购TikTok美国业务。据知情人士透露，TikTok母公司字节跳动(ByteDance)的高管此前认为，TikTok全球业务的估值约为字节跳动整体估值的一半，也就是说可能超过1,000亿美元。 6park.comThose asking have some huge—and widely varying—numbers to consider. One suitor has suggested $20 billion as a starting price for the U.S. operations. Executives at TikTok parent ByteDance have previously considered TikTok’s global operations to be worth about half of the Chinese company’s overall value, which would put it above $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. 6park.com
确定TikTok的确切价值将很困难，因为科技行业以前从未有过这样的出售交易，更何况还有几个未知数。 6park.comSettling on the exact value will be difficult because the tech industry has never seen a sale like this before, and there are several unknowns. 6park.com
一个较大的未知数是，TikTok的出售将涉及哪些资产？是出售整个国际业务连带超过10亿的国际用户，还是只出售拥有1.7亿用户的美国业务？TikTok的秘诀——令人上瘾的视频个性化算法，是否也包含在内？ 6park.comA big factor is what would come with the sale. Would it be the whole international business and its more than one billion users, or just the U.S. operations with 170 million users? Would TikTok’s secret sauce—the addictive video-personalization algorithm that China has signaled it won’t allow to be sold—be included? 6park.com 6park.com另一个悬而未决的问题是，随着TikTok一度令人眼花缭乱的增长放缓以及Instagram作为竞争对手的崛起，TikTok的美国业务究竟有多大吸引力。 6park.comAnother question hangs over how attractive TikTok’s U.S. business is, as its once dizzying growth slows and Instagram rises as a rival. 6park.com
如果真走到出售那一步，可能需要几个月甚至更长时间才能敲定售价。在美国国会近日批准该法案后，美国总统拜登周三签署了这项法案。TikTok正准备以言论自由为由提起诉讼，以阻止该法案的实施。该法案规定字节跳动在不超过一年的时间内找到合适买家，否则将面临美国的禁令。 6park.comIt will likely take months or more to settle on a sale price—if it ever comes to that. President Biden on Wednesday signed the legislation after Congress approved the bill in recent days. TikTok is preparing to sue on free-speech grounds to stop the bill from being implemented. The legislation gives ByteDance up to a year to find a suitable buyer or face a U.S. ban. 6park.com 6park.com让潜在出售更加复杂化的是，字节跳动的创始人张一鸣理论上可以选择让TikTok在美国被禁用，尽管外部投资者也有发言权。 6park.comFurther complicating a potential sale is that ByteDance’s founder, Zhang Yiming, could theoretically let TikTok be banned in the U.S., though outside investors have a say, too. 6park.com
据称，张一鸣拥有该公司20%的股份，不过超级投票权股赋予了他更大的投票权。字节跳动约60%的股份由全球机构投资者持有，包括凯雷投资集团(Carlyle Group)、泛大西洋投资集团(General Atlantic)和海纳国际集团(Susquehanna International Group)。剩余的20%股份由公司员工持有。 6park.comZhang owns 20% of ByteDance, according to the company, though super shares have given him larger voting rights. Roughly 60% of ByteDance is owned by global institutional investors including Carlyle Group, General Atlantic and Susquehanna International Group. The remaining 20% is owned by company employees.
字节跳动的创始人张一鸣。 So far public declarations of interest in buying TikTok have been limited. Kevin O’Leary, chairman of O’Shares ETFs and a star of the TV show “Shark Tank,” said he was putting together a bid valuing it between $20 billion and $30 billion, without the algorithm. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said he was forming a group to buy TikTok, and Bobby Kotick, the former chief executive of videogame publisher Activision, has also approached Zhang, The Wall Street Journal has reported. 6park.com
到目前为止，公开宣布有意收购TikTok的消息还不多。O'Shares ETFs的董事长、真人秀节目“创智赢家”(Shark Tank)的嘉宾奥利里(Kevin O'Leary)说，他正在制定一个不包含算法的出价，估值在200亿至300亿美元之间。前美国财政部长姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)已表示，正在组建一个财团来收购TikTok；据《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)的报道，电子游戏发行商Activision的前首席执行官Bobby Kotick已向张一鸣表达了意愿。 6park.com
如果张一鸣和其他股东同意出售TikTok，从字节跳动的角度来看，估值可能会远远超过1,000亿美元。据知情人士透露，字节跳动的高管去年曾讨论，TikTok的估值可能高达字节跳动估值的一半。 6park.comShould Zhang and other shareholders agree to sell, a starting sales price from ByteDance’s perspective could be well over $100 billion. Executives at ByteDance last year said TikTok could be valued at as much as half of ByteDance’s valuation, according to people familiar with the matter. 6park.com
字节跳动对于该公司如何看待TikTok的估值不予置评。 6park.comByteDance declined to comment on its view of TikTok’s valuation. 6park.com 6park.com上述知情人士称，去年12月，由少数人持股的字节跳动以每股160美元的出价向股东回购股份，并对股东称这个价格意味着字节跳动的估值为2,680亿美元。 6park.comIn December, closely held ByteDance offered $160 a share to buy back shares from shareholders, telling them it implied a valuation of $268 billion, the people said.
Other investors think ByteDance is worth less. In private equity markets where ByteDance shareholders sell their stakes, the prices were lower than $130 a share, according to data from Rainmaker Securities, a private-equity brokerage. That would value the Chinese tech giant at less than $215 billion. 6park.com
另外一些投资者对字节跳动的估值要低一些。根据私募股权经纪公司Rainmaker Securities的数据，在字节跳动股东出售持股的私募股权市场上，每股价格不到130美元。对应的估值不到2,150亿美元。 6park.com
另外，对于TikTok的实际价值是否相当于字节跳动的一半，市场也没有共识。字节跳动还在中国运营几款热门应用。 6park.comThere is also no consensus that TikTok is actually worth half of ByteDance, which operates several popular apps in China. 6park.com
据知情人士称，一些投行和投资者对TikTok的估值相当于其广告和直播收入的五倍。知情人士透露，去年，作为TikTok主要收入来源的广告和直播收入约为220亿美元。这意味着TikTok的估值可能达到1,100亿美元。 6park.comSome investment banks and investors are valuing TikTok at five times its advertising and livestreaming revenue, according to people familiar with the matter. Last year, TikTok’s revenue from advertising and livestreaming, its main revenue sources, was about $22 billion, people familiar with the matter said. That suggests TikTok could be valued at $110 billion. 6park.com
这些初步估值均假设字节跳动将TikTok整体出售，而不是将其业务拆分成两块，一部分是美国业务，另一部分是全球其他地方的业务。 6park.comThese starting points assume that ByteDance sells all of TikTok instead of cleaving it into two businesses: one for the U.S. and another for the rest of the world. 6park.com
美国是TikTok最大的市场，也是主要的增长引擎。TikTok电商服务去年9月在美国上线，知情人士称，该公司的目标是今年实现商品交易额175亿美元。 6park.comAmerica is TikTok’s biggest market and a major growth engine. The U.S. business launched an e-commerce service in September and aims to have $17.5 billion of merchandise transactions this year, people familiar with the matter said. 6park.com
据《华尔街日报》上个月报道，TikTok的美国业务实现了广告销售目标，但用户增长停滞不前。移动分析公司Data.ai的数据显示，从2022年到2023年，18至24岁的美国月均用户数量下降了近9%。分析公司Sensor Tower估计，过去一年人们每天花在Instagram上的时间增长了10%，而TikTok仅增长了1%，尽管在这些应用的总使用时间方面，TikTok仍在社交媒体平台中占主导地位。 6park.comTikTok’s U.S. business is hitting its ad-sales targets, but user growth is stalling, the Journal reported last month. U.S. average monthly users ages 18 to 24 declined by nearly 9% from 2022 to 2023, according to the mobile analytics firm Data.ai. Sensor Tower, an analytics firm, estimates that daily time spent on Instagram grew 10% over the past year, compared with growth of 1% on TikTok, though TikTok still dominates social-media platforms in overall time spent on the apps.
6park.com目前还不清楚TikTok是否盈利。在2023年3月的一次采访中，TikTok首席执行官周受资(Shou Zi Chew)说，TikTok尚未盈利，正斥资数十亿美元，希望将美国和欧洲业务与中国隔绝开来，以安抚担心该应用与中国政府关系的政要和监管机构。 6park.comIt is also unclear whether TikTok is profitable. In a March 2023 interview, TikTok Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew said it wasn’t profitable yet because it was spending billions of dollars trying to silo its U.S. and European operations from China, in an attempt to appease politicians and regulators worried about the app’s ties to Beijing. 6park.com
如果只出售美国业务，字节跳动可以保留TikTok的大部分，但周受资说这样做可能会“毁掉”这款应用。他说，TikTok的部分吸引力在于，美国以外的人们可以体验美国生活方式。 6park.comSelling only the U.S. business would let ByteDance keep most of TikTok, but Chew said that doing so might “break” the app. Part of TikTok’s appeal, he said, is that people outside the U.S. can experience Americana. 6park.com
“比方说，如果你是美国用户，你也可以在法国走红，”他说。“如果你有两家公司——一家面向美国，另一家面向世界其他地区——你就会考虑如何进行互操作。你打算怎么做呢?” 6park.com“You can be an American user, you could go viral in France, for example,” he said. “If you had two companies—one for the U.S. and one for the rest of the world—you think about how you’re going to interoperate. How are you going to do that?”
TikTok首席执行官周受资。 Another issue that could reduce TikTok’s sale price is control of the app’s algorithm, or the system that personalizes what videos a user views. China said last year that selling TikTok would be subject to government approval because the algorithm falls under Chinese export-control rules. 6park.com
另一个可能降低TikTok售价的问题是该应用算法的控制权，即对用户观看视频进行个性化设置的系统。中国去年表示，出售TikTok需要获得政府批准，因为算法受到中国出口管制规定的约束。 6park.com
投资者和公司高管表示，字节跳动认为算法是TikTok能够让人上瘾并保持趣味性的关键。买家可能不得不竞购不含算法的TikTok，并重建自己的算法系统。 6park.comByteDance thinks the algorithm is key to making TikTok addictive and fun, investors and company executives said. Buyers might have to bid for TikTok without the algorithm and install their own system. 6park.com
“你必须成为一个管家，把它从TikTok中国变成TikTok美国，”创智赢家的奥利里上个月在CNBC上说。“每个人都认为你不会从中国政府那里获得算法，毫无疑问，他们不会出售算法。” 6park.com“You have to be a steward to change it from TikTok China to TikTok U.S.A.,” Shark Tank’s O’Leary said on CNBC last month. “Everybody assumes you’re not going to get the algorithm from the Chinese government, and there’s no question that they will not sell it.”
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