Persistently High Commodity Prices Could Delay Interest Rate Cuts, World Bank Says


世界银行表示，预计今明两年全球大宗商品价格仍会保持在大大高于新冠疫情前的价格水平，这将使各国央行更难降低通胀率和放松货币政策。


存档图片：2016年6月9日，美国能源部走访在得克萨斯州弗里波特战略石油储备基地，图为当时迷宫般的原油管道和阀门。

世界银行表示，预计今明两年全球大宗商品价格将走软，但仍会保持在大大高于新冠疫情前的价格水平，这将使各国央行更难降低通胀率和放松货币政策。 6park.com
Global commodity prices are expected to soften this year and next but remain considerably above prepandemic levels, making it harder for central banks to lower inflation and loosen monetary policy, the World Bank said. 6park.com
   
根据世界银行的最新报告，大宗商品价格在2022年6月至2023年6月期间大跌近40%，导致全球通胀率下降了两个多百分点，但此后大宗商品价格基本保持不变。 6park.com
Commodity prices plunged nearly 40% between June 2022 and June 2023, driving a reduction of more than two percentage points in global inflation, but they have remained broadly unchanged since then, according to the bank’s latest report. 6park.com
   
世界银行首席经济学家兼高级副行长Indermit Gill在周四表示，“大宗商品价格下降是推动通胀走低的关键力量，但这一因素基本上已停滞不前。这意味着今明两年的利率仍可能高于目前的预期。” 6park.com
“A key force for disinflation-falling commodity prices-has essentially hit a wall. That means interest rates could remain higher than currently expected this year and next,” Chief Economist and Senior Vice President Indermit Gill said on Thursday. 6park.com
  
欧洲央行行长拉加德(Christine Lagarde)上周在接受CNBC采访时表示，欧洲央行必须高度关注大宗商品价格走势，尤其是能源和食品价格，因为它们会对通胀产生直接而迅速的影响。 6park.com
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in an interview with CNBC last week that the central bank has to be extremely attentive to commodity-price movements, particularly energy and food, as they have a direct and rapid impact on inflation. 6park.com
   
欧洲央行暗示可能会在6月开始下调基准利率，而美联储则表示，在近期数据显示美国经济活动强劲之后，可能将在今年晚些时候下调利率。 6park.com
The ECB signaled that it could start lowering its key interest rate in June, while the Federal Reserve indicated that cuts will likely come later in the year after recent data pointed to strong economic activity in the U.S. 6park.com
   
世界银行预测，该行编制的大宗商品价格指数在今年和明年料将分别下降3%和4%，这相当于比2015-19年期间的平均水平高出约38%，那时候许多经济体的通胀率仍高于目标水准。 6park.com
The World Bank forecasts its commodity price index to fall by 3% this year and 4% next year, staying about 38% above the 2015-19 average at a time when inflation is still above targets across many economies. 6park.com
   
该机构称，尽管经济增长低迷，但价格却持续走高，主要原因是地缘政治风险加剧、许多工业大宗商品供应紧张，以及清洁能源技术提振了贱金属需求。 6park.com
Persistently higher prices in spite of subdued economic growth are mainly due to heightened geopolitical risks, tight supplies for many industrial commodities, and higher demand for base metals bolstered by clean-energy technologies, according to the institution. 6park.com
价格上涨的主要风险是中东地区冲突升级，这可能会加剧全球通胀，进一步推迟货币宽松政策。“一系列不利的结果仍然是可能的，”世界银行表示。“涉及一个或多个主要产油国的进一步冲突升级，可能导致该地区的开采和出口受到限制，从而迅速减少全球石油供应。” 6park.com
The main upside risk to prices is a regional escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which could stoke global inflation and further delay monetary easing. “A range of adverse outcomes remains possible,” the World Bank said. “Further conflict escalation involving one or more key oil producers could result in extraction and exports in the region being curtailed, rapidly lessening global oil supply.” 6park.com
  
霍尔木兹海峡是连接波斯湾和阿拉伯海的世界上最重要的石油通道之一，该海峡的任何贸易中断都会导致价格大幅上涨，影响原油、液化天然气和化肥的价格。 6park.com
Any trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important routes for oil that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea—would cause a substantial increase in prices, affecting crude, liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. 6park.com
  
世界银行表示，温和的供应中断可能会使国际石油基准布伦特原油今年的均价升至每桶92美元，而更严重的供应中断可能会使油价超过每桶100美元，从而使全球通胀率上升近一个百分点。 6park.com
Moderate supply disruptions could raise the average price for Brent, the international oil benchmark, to $92 per barrel this year, while a more severe disruption could see prices surpass $100 per barrel, raising global inflation by nearly one percentage point, the World Bank said. 6park.com
  
世界银行表示，其他上行风险包括美国能源供应减少，以及页岩油生产商可能无法实现生产目标，因为该行业目前倾向于将增加的利润分配给股东，而不是将其再投资于开采。另一方面，“欧佩克+”限产措施的解除速度快于预期以及全球经济增长令人失望，都可能利空油价。 6park.com
Other upside risks include lower U.S. energy supply and the possibility of shale oil producers failing to meet production targets, as the industry currently tends to allocate an increased portion of profits to shareholders rather than reinvesting them into extraction, the bank said. On the other hand, a faster-than-anticipated unwinding of OPEC+ curbs and disappointing global economic growth could be bearish for oil. 6park.com
上周，以色列对伊朗发动报复性打击的消息引发了对地区冲突扩大的担忧，原油基准大幅上涨，但不久后又因局势缓和的迹象而回落。布伦特原油在4月初飙升至91美元，比2015-19年的平均水平高出近34美元/桶。该国际石油基准目前的交易价格约为每桶87美元，而美国石油基准西德克萨斯中质油价格约为每桶83美元。 6park.com
Crude benchmarks rose significantly last week on news that Israel launched a retaliatory strike against Iran, spiking fears of a widening regional conflict, but retreated shortly after on signs of de-escalation. Brent crude surged to $91 in early April, nearly $34 per barrel above the 2015-19 average. The international oil benchmark is now trading around $87 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil gauge, is at around $83 a barrel. 6park.com
  
由于较低的借贷成本通常会刺激经济和对原油的需求，利率在更长时间内维持较高水平的前景也支持了更为悲观的情绪。经济学家目前预计美联储将于9月而非6月开始降息，晚于欧洲央行和英国央行。 6park.com
A more bearish sentiment is also supported by prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates, as lower borrowing costs typically stimulate the economy and demand for crude. Economists now expect the Fed to start cutting rates in September rather than June, later than the ECB and the Bank of England. 6park.com
假定不发生与冲突有关的供应中断，世界银行预测2024年布伦特原油的平均价格为每桶84美元，高于去年的每桶83美元，预计2025年为每桶79美元，届时供应条件将有所改善。 6park.com
Assuming no conflict-related supply disruptions, the World Bank forecasts Brent crude at an average of $84 a barrel in 2024, up from $83 a barrel last year, and $79 a barrel in 2025 on improving supply conditions. 6park.com
  
预计今年的石油产量增长80万桶/日，不到2023年增量的一半，主要受美国供应的推动。消费量增长将减速至约120万桶/日，并在明年进一步放缓，而预期中欧佩克+减产措施的收回将推高产量并导致库存增加。 6park.com
Oil production is expected to grow 0.8 million barrels a day this year—less than half the increment seen in 2023—mainly driven by U.S. supply. Consumption growth should decelerate to about 1.2 million barrels a day and further slow next year, as the expected rollback of OPEC+ cuts will push production higher and result in building inventories. 6park.com
  
由于储存量充足，预计欧洲天然气价格今年将下跌近28%，然后在2025年反弹；美国天然气价格应会温和下跌，之后在明年攀升约46%，新的液化天然气终端使出口更加便利。荷兰TTF基准价格目前约为每兆瓦时29欧元。 6park.com
European natural-gas prices are instead forecast to tumble nearly 28% this year due to ample storage levels, before rebounding in 2025; while U.S. natural-gas prices should moderately decline before climbing roughly 46% next year as new LNG terminals help facilitate exports. Benchmark Dutch TTF prices are currently trading around EUR29 a megawatt-hour. 6park.com
   
与此同时，世界银行表示，预计今明两年粮食价格将下降，部分原因是供应量增加以及厄尔尼诺天气条件缓和，化肥价格预计将下降，原因是天然气等投入成本降低。 6park.com
Meanwhile, food prices are expected to fall this year and next, partly driven by higher supplies and moderating El Nino weather conditions, while fertilizer prices are forecast to decrease due to lower costs for inputs such as natural gas, the World Bank said. 6park.com
  
在电网基础设施、电动汽车以及太阳能电池板和其他可再生能源基础设施需求的推动下，铜和铝等金属价格应会上涨。 6park.com
Metals such as copper and aluminum instead should rise, bolstered by demand for electricity-grid infrastructure and electric vehicles, as well as solar panels and other renewable-power infrastructure.