Market Reaction to Iran Attack Tells Us Stocks Aren’t in a Bubble


美国股市上周五和本周一的震荡暂时缓解了对于市场已出现泡沫的担忧。


上周末，伊朗向以色列发射了大量无人机和导弹。

投资者不善于评估地缘政治风险，更不用说战争的前景了。但透过市场对伊朗袭击以色列事件的反应可以了解到投资者现状：他们对股票的估值或许过高，但仍能够作出理性的判断。更妙的是，投资者并没有一触即发地抛售手中投资组合，因此这进一步证明了股市很可能并不存在泡沫，至少现在还没有。 6park.com
Investors are terrible at assessing geopolitical risks, let alone the prospects of war. But the market reaction to Iran’s attack on Israel tells us something about their current state: Investors may be putting superhigh valuations on stocks, but they’re still capable of making reasoned judgments. Even better, investors aren’t on a hair-trigger to dump their portfolios, so this adds to evidence that we’re probably not in a bubble, at least not yet. 6park.com
   
在谈论教训之前，先谈逻辑。上周五，由于投资者担心伊朗在与以色列相互报复的恶性循环中可能采取的行动，股票和债券收益率下跌，石油和黄金的价格上涨。在当天晚些时候和周一，随着伊朗不想升级冲突的情况明朗化，投资者的操作发生了逆转，周一前市，10年期美国国债收益率重返上周五前市开始时的水平。市场关于不会爆发更大范围中东战争的结论可能是错误的。但上述价格走势具有很强的内在逻辑。 6park.com
Before getting to the lessons, the logic. Stocks and bond yields fell and oil and gold rose during the day on Friday as investors worried about Iran’s move in the cycle of revenge with Israel. They reversed their moves late in the day and on Monday—with the 10-year Treasury yield on Monday morning back to where it began on Friday morning—as it became clear that Iran didn’t want to escalate. Markets might be wrong to conclude that a wider Middle East war isn’t about to break out. But the price moves had strong internal logic. 6park.com
   
这告诉我们，市场不完全是非理性的。在市场泡沫中，坏消息通常要么被忽略，因为人们相信郁金香/铁路/网站/电动汽车/绿色科技近乎神奇的力量可以克服一切障碍，要么产生巨大影响，因为它可能迫使投资者重新审视传统的估值工具。在一个缺乏支撑的市场中，逻辑几乎不存在。 6park.com
This tells us that markets aren’t entirely irrational. In a bubble, bad news is typically either ignored—as belief in the near-magical power of tulips/railways/websites/electric cars/green tech overcomes all obstacles—or has a huge impact as it threatens to force investors to revert to looking at traditional valuation tools. Logic has little place in a market that’s floating on nothing.



本轮市场跌幅也很小。当然，标普500指数创出1月份以来的最大单日跌幅。但每三个月一次接近1.5%的跌幅并不算什么，与真正的泡沫相比，也确实不算什么。2000年1月和2月，当网络泡沫接近完全膨胀时，该指数曾出现七次跌幅至少1.5%的下挫，算下来每两周不止一次。 6park.com
The scale of the selloff was also small. Sure, the S&P 500 had its biggest drop in a day since January. But a near-1.5% drop once every three months is nothing, and really nothing compared with what happens in a true bubble. In January and February 2000, as the dot-com bubble was nearing full inflation, stocks dropped 1.5% or more seven times, more than once every two weeks. 6park.com
   
对于美国股市现已出现泡沫的说法，这提供了一些安慰。但也存在表明实际情况可能正好相反的证据。 6park.com
This offers some reassurance against talk of a bubble today. But there’s evidence the other way, too. 6park.com
   
首先是波动性上升的反面：有一些泡沫的市场自然会剧烈波动。在互联网泡沫的最后一年，即从1999年初到2000年3月泡沫达到顶峰，隐含波动率Vix指数平均为24，远高于长期平均值。在2020年底至2021年初的清洁技术、大麻、特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)和模因股泡沫期间，Vix指数也保持在远高于20的水平，泡沫股经常是每日涨跌幅最大的股票之一。 6park.com
The first is the flip side of a pick up in volatility: Frothy markets are naturally volatile. During the final year of the dot-com bubble from the start of 1999 to the March 2000 peak the Vix index of implied volatility averaged 24, much higher than its long-run average. The Vix stayed well above 20 during the bubble in clean technology, cannabis, SPACs and meme stocks in late 2020-early 2021, too, with frothy stocks frequently among the biggest daily movers both up and down.   6park.com
   
第二个证据是，当前市场再次出现一些极端走势，比如投资者疯狂交易Trump Media & Technology股票。自从三周前宣布股票代码为DJT（前总统、大股东特朗普(Donald J. Trump)名字的首字母）以来，除了两个交易日，该公司在其他所有交易日的涨跌幅都超过了5%。 6park.com
The second piece of evidence is that today’s market again has some extreme moves going on, such as the wild trading in Trump Media & Technology. It has moved up or down by more than 5% on all but two trading days since announcing three weeks ago its ticker would be DJT, initials of Donald Trump, the former president and majority owner. 6park.com
   
一些投资者被人工智能(AI)的美好前景所迷惑，他们将一些较小AI公司的股价推到了同样荒谬的水平，而个人期权交易的增加也是一个过度的迹象。这些都不意味着一定会出现更广泛的泡沫，在过去十年中，部分主题中的小型泡沫屡见不鲜。但这是小投资者投下的信任票。 6park.com
Investors moonstruck by the possibilities of artificial intelligence have pushed some smaller AI firms to similar silliness, while increased trading in options by individuals is another sign of excess. None of this means there is necessarily a wider bubble, as mini-bubbles in narrow themes have been common over the past decade. But they are a sign of confidence by small investors. 6park.com
   
第三个证据来自对投资者感受的调查。调查结果简而言之：很好。也许太好了。根据Investors Intelligence的调查，看跌股市的投资者简报占比为2018年1月以来最低。在该时间节点不久后，结构性产品“波动灾难”大爆发导致标普500指数重挫10%。在美国散户协会(American Association of Individual Investors)的调查中，多头占比比空头多出19个百分点，这一差距持续了整整一年，而且还在拉大，但与2000年1月62个百分点的差距相去甚远。 6park.com
The third piece of evidence comes from surveys of how investors feel. In short: Good. Perhaps too good. The lowest proportion of investor newsletters are bearish since January 2018, just before the “volmageddon” blowup of structured products that knocked 10% off the S&P, according to Investors Intelligence. Bulls outnumber bears by 19 percentage points in the American Association of Individual Investors survey, a gap that has persisted all year and is elevated, but nothing like the 62-point gap of January 2000.



花旗集团(Citigroup)将衡量投资者情绪的多种指标整合到以已故华尔街策略师Tobias Levkovich命名的Levkovich指数中，并称该指数正指向“亢奋”。这是一个需要谨慎的理由，因为当投资者已经欣喜若狂时，就难以更上一层楼了。但也不是不可能：真正的泡沫仍有可能膨胀。 6park.com
Citigroup combines multiple measures of investor sentiment into its Levkovich index, named for the late Wall Street strategist Tobias Levkovich, and says it is pointing at “euphoric.” That’s a reason for caution, because when investors are already overjoyed, it’s hard for them to get even happier. But it isn’t impossible: A true bubble could still inflate. 6park.com
  
中东可能爆发战争，这将对生命和生计造成巨大的破坏，在这种可能性推动的市场走势中发现好消息似乎有些奇怪。认为有可能发生战争的投资者应该买入石油、石油股票、黄金或债券，尤其是在周一强劲的零售额数据推动10年期债券收益率跃升至4.6%之后。但要注意的是，押注地缘政治很难赚钱。对投资者来说，周末发生的事件更有助于思考股市是否泡沫过多。 6park.com
It might seem odd to be finding good news in market action driven by a possible war in the Middle East, which would be hugely destructive in lives and livelihoods. Investors who think it likely should buy oil, oil stocks, gold or bonds, particularly after the 10-year yield jumped to 4.6% on Monday on the back of strong retail sales. But be aware that it’s incredibly hard to make money betting on geopolitics. For investors, the weekend’s events are more useful as a way to think about whether there’s too much froth in stocks.