China Surprises With Strong Start to Year as Factories Power Expansion


中国第一季度GDP同比增长5.3%，高于前值。经济增速加快在很大程度上得益于中国政府大力推动制造业发展的举措。


为了重振经济增长，中国官员正在引导经济活动和投资转向制造业和出口。

中国表示，今年前三个月中国经济增速加快。这在很大程度上得益于中国政府大力推动制造业发展的举措。 6park.com
China said its economy picked up in the first three months of the year, driven in large part by Beijing’s push to turbocharge manufacturing. 6park.com
    
中国国家统计局周二表示，第一季度中国国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长5.3%。 6park.com
China’s economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter compared with the same three months a year earlier, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. 6park.com
   
这高于中国2023年最后一个季度5.2%的同比增速，也符合中国政府今年5%左右的官方增长目标。 6park.com
That was a faster pace than the 5.2% year-over-year growth rate that the country notched up in the final quarter of 2023, and in line with the government’s official growth target of around 5% for the year. 6park.com
   
去年中国经济增速为几十年来（新冠疫情期间动荡的几年除外）的最低水平之一，预期中的中国政府取消严格防疫措施后的消费热潮仅持续了几个月就逐渐消失了。 6park.com
China’s economy last year recorded one of its weakest growth rates in decades, outside of the turbulent years of the pandemic, as a hoped-for consumption boom following Beijing’s abandonment of its strict Covid-19 controls petered out after only a few months. 6park.com
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随着住宅销售和建筑业下滑，曾占经济产出四分之一之多的房地产业成为拖累经济增长的一个主要因素。 6park.com
Real estate, which once accounted for as much as one quarter of economic output, was a major drag on growth as housing sales and construction tumbled.


中国第一季度GDP同比增长5.3%。

为了重振经济增长，中国官员正在引导经济活动和投资转向制造业和出口，以弥补国内消费者不愿花钱和房地产市场危机的影响。无论是谨慎的消费者情绪，还是房地产市场困境都没有减弱的迹象。 6park.com
To revive economic growth, Chinese officials are steering activity and investment toward manufacturing and exports to compensate for domestic consumers’ restraint and the property market crunch, neither of which shows signs of abating. 6park.com
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中国政府的优先关注的领域包括电动汽车和可再生能源设备等行业，这些行业被中国政府视为“新质生产力”，中国政府打算利用这些行业提升在全球制造业中的份额。 6park.com
Beijing’s top priorities are sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy equipment—industries it counts among the “new productive forces” that it intends to harness to dominate a growing chunk of global manufacturing. 6park.com
   
数据显示，这一战略正在奏效。在好于预期的中国制造业数据公布之后，高盛(Goldman Sachs)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和亚洲开发银行(ADB)的经济学家上周纷纷小幅上调了对中国经济增长的预测。这三家机构现在都预计中国全年经济增长将接近政府5%左右的官方目标。 6park.com
Data suggests the strategy is working. Economists at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the Asian Development Bank last week nudged up their forecasts for economic growth in China after better-than-expected industrial data. All three institutions now expect growth to be close to the government’s official target of around 5% for the full year. 6park.com
 
 
但中国政府的战略正在让世界各国感到不满，各国政府担心中国新一轮的降价竞争会给就业和工业带来风险，令21世纪之初的“中国冲击”重演。 6park.com
But Beijing’s strategy is raising hackles around the world as governments balk at the risk to jobs and industries from a new wave of cut-price Chinese competition, a potential rerun of the “China shock” of the early 2000s. 6park.com
  
美国和欧洲正在抵制中国的电动汽车、太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机。新兴经济体也感受到了中国制造业过剩带来的压力，巴西、印度和墨西哥等国正在调查中国的钢铁和陶瓷等产品是否正以不公平低价倾销到它们的市场。 6park.com
The U.S. and Europe are pushing back against Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines. Emerging economies are feeling the heat from China’s manufacturing glut, too, with Brazil, India and Mexico among those countries investigating whether Chinese products such as steel and ceramics are being dumped on to their markets at unfairly low prices.


本月，一名女性在北京一家服装店购物。

中国称中资企业是在公平竞争，并批评上述那些行为是保护主义。国际货币基金组织(IMF)等机构警告称，国与国之间的贸易关系日趋紧张恐怕会导致全球经济割裂，形成分别以美国和中国为中心的国家集团，阻碍更广泛的贸易。 6park.com
China says its companies are competing fairly and has criticized such moves as protectionism. The International Monetary Fund and others warn that these mounting tensions over trade between countries could lead to a fracturing of the global economy, with blocs of countries allied around the U.S. and China, respectively, and broader trade impeded. 6park.com
   
周二的数据体现了中国政府战略的成果，第一季度规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%。与此同时，作为衡量国内消费的重要指标，1-3月份社会消费品零售总额增长4.7%，增幅更加温和。 6park.com
Tuesday’s data captured the fruits of Beijing’s strategy, with industrial production rising 6.1% from a year earlier in the first quarter. Meanwhile, retail sales, a key gauge of domestic consumption, increased by a more modest 4.7% in the first three months of the year. 6park.com
   
中国国家统计局副局长盛来运称赞了工业增加值的明显回升，称这主要是因为出口好转和一系列政策推动，这也帮助经济在第一季度实现了高于预期的增速。 6park.com
Sheng Laiyun, deputy head of China’s statistics bureau, credited an acceleration in industrial production, buoyed by improving exports and government support measures, with helping economic growth surprise to the upside in the first quarter. 6park.com
   
以美元计算，第一季度出口额同比增长1.5%，但出口量增长4%以上，因中国商品在全球市场上的价格下跌。 6park.com
Exports in the first quarter rose 1.5% compared with the same period a year earlier when measured in U.S. dollar terms, though by more than 4% by volume as prices for Chinese goods fell on global markets. 6park.com
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不过，就工业增加值和社会消费品零售总额而言，大部分增长出现在今年前两个月。相比之下，3月份的增长势头明显减弱，这对今年剩余时间是一个警示信号。 6park.com
In the case of both industrial production and retail sales, however, most of the heavy lifting was done in the first two months of the year. March, in contrast, showed a considerable loss of momentum—a warning sign for the remainder of the year. 6park.com
   
就3月份而言，工业增加值同比仅增长4.5%，这远低于1-2月7.0%的增幅。零售额增速也放缓，同比仅增长3.1%。 6park.com
For the month of March, industrial production rose just 4.5% from a year earlier, much lower than the 7.0% rise in the first two months of the year. Retail sales also slowed, rising just 3.1% on the year. 6park.com
   
牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)驻新加坡的首席中国经济学家卢姿蕙(Louise Loo)说，她预计在3月份相关数据疲软后，中国第二季度经济增长将放缓。 6park.com
Louise Loo, lead China economist at Oxford Economics in Singapore, said she expects economic growth in China to slow in the second quarter following the weakness in the March data. 6park.com
   
与此同时，中国的总体失业率，即全国城镇调查失业率从2月份的5.3%小幅降至5.2%。 6park.com
Meanwhile, China’s headline rate of joblessness, the surveyed urban unemployment rate, edged down to 5.2%, from February’s 5.3%. 6park.com
   
中国庞大的房地产市场可以说是中国经济最大的风险所在，周二公布的相关数据喜忧参半。 6park.com
When it comes to China’s sprawling property market, arguably the economy’s biggest risk, Tuesday’s data release offered a mixed picture. 6park.com
   
虽然3月份新房销售、房价等指标环比和同比继续下降，但降幅普遍收窄。 6park.com
While indicators such as new home sales and home prices continued to fall in March in both month-over-month and year-over-year terms, the magnitude of those declines generally narrowed. 6park.com
   
另一方面，1-3月全国房地产开发投资同比下降9.5%，降幅较1-2月的9.0%有所扩大。 6park.com
On the other hand, property investment fell 9.5% in the January-March period from a year earlier, widening from a 9.0% drop in the first two months of the year.