‘Envy of the World’—U.S. Economy Expected to Keep Powering Higher


预测人士上一次对美国经济前景这么乐观还是两年前。在《华尔街日报》的最新调查中，经济学家预计今年美国增长率将触底反弹。


经济学家相信通胀率将下降，但同时不会引发经济衰退。

预测人士上一次对美国经济前景这么乐观还是两年前。 6park.com
It has been two years since forecasters felt this good about the economic outlook. 6park.com
   
在《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)最新的季度调查中，商界和学术界的经济学家将未来一年内发生经济衰退的可能性从1月份调查时的39%下调至29%。这是自2022年4月预测经济衰退概率为28%以来的最低概率。 6park.com
In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the January survey. That was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%. 6park.com
   
事实上，经济学家认为美国经济甚至不会接近衰退。今年1月，他们平均预测今年前三个季度每个季度的经济增长率都低于1%。现在，他们预计今年增长率将触底反弹，第三季度经通胀调整后为增长1.4%。 6park.com
Economists, in fact, don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they on average forecast sub-1% growth in each of the first three quarters of this year. Now, they expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter. 6park.com
   
目前只有10%的受访者认为未来12个月美国经济将至少有一个季度出现负增长，这一比例低于1月份的33%。 6park.com
Just 10% of survey respondents think the economy will experience at least one quarter of negative growth over the next 12 months, down from 33% in January.



《华尔街日报》的这项调查于4月5日至9日进行，就在3月份CPI数据公布之前，该数据显示通胀率高于经济学家预期。 6park.com
The Wall Street Journal survey was conducted from April 5 to 9, just before the release of March consumer-price index data showing inflation running hotter than economists had anticipated. 6park.com
    
美国经济过去一年半的表现远超预期。在美联储40年来最激进的加息行动的重压下，美国经济非但没有停顿，反而继续强劲扩张。 6park.com
The U.S. economy has far outperformed expectations over the past year and a half. Instead of stumbling under the weight of the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest-rate-raising campaign in four decades, it has continued expanding at a robust clip.  6park.com
   
很少有人认为美国经济能达到去年的增长水平，按第四季度经季节性因素调整后的同比变化衡量，去年美国经济增长率为3.1%。这一数字可能受到美国联邦基础设施和半导体立法等一次性因素以及移民人数增加的推动，移民人数也许不会持续增长。 6park.com
Few think that the economy can do quite as well as last year’s 3.1% growth, as measured by the seasonally adjusted fourth-quarter change from a year earlier. That figure might have been boosted by one-time factors such as federal infrastructure and semiconductor legislation and an uptick in immigration, which also might not last.



尽管如此，随着时间的推移，似乎并没有出现经济将要大幅放缓的迹象，经济学家们不得不重新考虑关于经济大幅放缓的预测。他们目前的平均预期是，今年第一季度美国经济增长率为2.2%，高于1月份预测的0.9%。 6park.com
Still, economists have had to rethink forecasts for a major slowdown as more time has passed and one still doesn’t seem imminent. Economists on average think the economy grew at a 2.2% rate in the first three months of the year, up from a 0.9% forecast in January. 6park.com
   
“美国经济表现非常好，"EconForecaster经济学家James Smith在上述调查中说。“我们确实令世界羡慕。” 6park.com
“The U.S. economy is performing very well,” EconForecaster economist James Smith said in the survey. “We’re truly the envy of the world.” 6park.com
   
自经济学家们上次如此乐观以来，情况已发生了很大变化。两年前，美联储的基准联邦基金利率目标区间为0.25%-0.5%。当时通胀率高企，但经济学家仍普遍认为，无需美联储提供太多帮助，通胀率就能回落。他们当时预测经济将稳步增长，联邦基金利率的区间中点最高将略高于2.5%。 6park.com
Much has changed since economists were last this optimistic. Two years ago, the Fed’s benchmark federal-funds rate was set between 0.25% and 0.5%. Inflation was high but economists still generally thought that it could come down without too much help from the Fed. They forecast steady growth and the midpoint of the range for the fed-funds rate topping out at just above 2.5%. 



现在联邦基金利率目标区间为5.25%-5.5%，经济学家认为美联储不会很快大幅降息。许多分析师在上周强劲的通胀报告公布后都下调了降息预期。但即使在该报告公布之前，调查受访者就预测今年年底的利率将为4.67%，这意味着将有三次降息。而在1月份时受访者预计今年可能会有四到五次降息。 6park.com
Now, the fed-funds rate is sitting between 5.25% and 5.5%, and economists don’t see a bunch of cuts coming soon. Many analysts trimmed their rate-cut forecasts after last week’s hot inflation report. But even before the report, survey respondents predicted that rates would end the year at 4.67%, implying three cuts. In January, their responses suggested that they thought four or five cuts were likely.  6park.com
  
经济学家现在认为，与不久前相比，美国经济可以承受更高的利率。 6park.com
Economists now think the economy can withstand higher rates than they did not long ago. 6park.com
   
他们预计，作为关键借贷基准的10年期美国国债收益率（上述调查进行时约为4.4%）今年年底将达到3.97%。展望未来，他们预计到2026年底该收益率为3.78%。这甚至略高于他们去年10月的预测，当时该收益率比现在要高。 6park.com
They expect the 10-year Treasury yield—a key borrowing benchmark that was around 4.4% at the time of the survey—to end 2024 at 3.97%. Looking further into the future, they expect the yield to end 2026 at 3.78%. That is slightly above even their forecast last October, when the yield was higher than it is now. 6park.com
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许多经济学家长期以来都认为，当经济能够更快增长时，特别是当工人生产率提高时，经济可以承受更高的利率。 6park.com
Many economists have long thought that the economy can handle higher interest rates when it is capable of growing faster, and particularly when worker productivity has increased. 6park.com
  
因此，经济学家预计，未来十年劳工部的生产率指标年均增长率将达到1.9%。这与过去40年的生产率年均增长率相当。但这高于2010年代1.2%的增速，当时10年期美国国债收益率通常徘徊在1.5%-2.5%之间。 6park.com
To that end, economists expect the Labor Department’s measure of productivity to rise at an annual rate of 1.9% over the next decade. That matches the annual increase in productivity over the last 40 years. But it is above the 1.2% pace of the 2010s, when the 10-year Treasury yield was typically stuck between 1.5% and 2.5%. 6park.com
    
一些经济学家现在看好美国经济的长期潜力。 6park.com
Some economists are now enthusiastic about the economy’s longer-term potential. 6park.com
   
RSM美国首席经济学家Joe Brusuelas在受访时说：“我们认为，美国经济已进入良性循环，强劲的生产率导致经济增长高于长期趋势，通胀率介于2%-2.5% ，失业率介于3.5%-4%。” 6park.com
“We think that the American economy has entered a virtuous cycle where strong productivity results in growth above the long-term trend, inflation between 2% and 2.5% and an unemployment rate between 3.5% and 4%,” RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas said in the survey. 6park.com
  
但许多人并不那么乐观。增长前景向好的一个不利因素是，更强劲的经济可能使通胀率更难一路回落到美联储2%的目标。 6park.com
Many aren’t quite as optimistic. One downside of a better growth outlook is that a stronger economy could make it harder for inflation to fall all the way back to the Fed’s 2% target.  6park.com
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美联储密切关注的通胀指标核心个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)在2月份上升2.8%。经济学家目前预计今年年底该指数升幅为2.5%，而1月份给出的预测值为2.3%。 6park.com
An inflation gauge that is closely watched by the Fed, the core personal-consumption expenditures price index, was 2.8% in February, its most recent reading. Economists now expect it to end the year at 2.5%, after having forecast 2.3% in January. 6park.com
   
经济学家的平均预期为，如果不出现经济衰退，核心PCE通胀到明年年底会降至2.1%。然而，在上周的通胀数据公布后，他们可能已上调了预测，一些人依旧担心美联储控制通胀的努力仍对经济构成重大威胁。 6park.com
Economists, on average, believe that core PCE inflation will fall to 2.1% by the end of next year without a recession. However, their projections might already have ticked higher after last week’s price data, and some continue to worry that the Fed’s efforts to control inflation still present a major threat to the economy. 6park.com
  
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家Brett Ryan和Matthew Luzzetti在受访时表示：“风险明显偏向于美联储持更偏紧缩的立场，这可能会拖累我们的经济增长预期。” 6park.com
“The risks are clearly skewed toward more hawkish Fed outcomes, which could drag on our growth forecasts,” Deutsche Bank economists Brett Ryan and Matthew Luzzetti said in the survey. 6park.com
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有69位经济学家接受了《华尔街日报》的此次调查访问，并非所有经济学家都回答了全部问题。 6park.com
The Wall Street Journal survey was answered by 69 economists. Not every economist responded to every question.