China’s Coming ‘Two Sessions’ Put Plans to Jumpstart Economy in the Spotlight


中国的两会定于本周拉开帷幕，投资者关注的重要消息之一是2024年中国经济展望，包括GDP增长目标、通胀目标和就业目标。


图为中国北京的天安门广场。

中国的政策会议两会定于本周拉开帷幕，市场关注中国政府将采取何种措施来提振这个全球第二大经济体。 6park.com
China’s “Two Sessions” policy meetings kick off next week and the markets are watching to see what Beijing does to kick-start the world’s second-largest economy. 6park.com
    
这关系重大。全国人大代表和高层决策者的这一年度会议召开之际，中国经济困难重重。消费者已收紧钱袋子，中国房地产巨头们正为生存而挣扎，股市遭遇了大幅下跌。政府推出了旨在稳定经济的措施，包括旨在刺激住房需求的举措，但持续疲软的数据已令人怀疑刺激措施是否足够大胆。 6park.com
The stakes are high. The annual gathering of the National People’s Congress deputies and top policymakers comes as China’s economic woes pile up. Consumers have tightened their purse strings, the country’s property giants are struggling for survival and stock markets have suffered a punishing selloff. The government has rolled out measures to stabilize the economy, including steps to stoke demand for housing, but persistently weak data has raised doubts about whether stimulus has been bold enough. 6park.com
    
投资者关注的两会重要消息之一是2024年中国经济展望，包括国内生产总值(GDP)增长目标、通胀目标和就业目标。GDP增长目标将最受瞩目；中国有两次未能达到这一目标。 6park.com
Key announcements on the investors’ radar include the outlook for China’s economy in 2024, featuring targets for gross domestic product growth, inflation and employment. The GDP target, which the country has only failed to reach twice, will be the most keenly watched. 6park.com
   
▪ GDP目标：虽然两会定于周一拉开帷幕，但到周二市场才能等来中国国务院总理李强在其年度政府工作报告中宣布这一经济增长目标。分析人士目前预计，中国政府将把GDP增长目标定在“5%左右”，与2023年一样。基于目前的政策支持情况，市场预期今年GDP增长4.6%。 6park.com
GDP TARGET: Though the sessions start Monday, markets will have to wait until Tuesday for Chinese Premier Li Qiang to announce the economic growth target in his annual government work report. Analysts are expecting Beijing to aim for “around 5%,” the same as in 2023. Market consensus is for a 4.6% increase this year, based on current policy support. 6park.com
     
仲量联行(JLL)大中华区研究主管兼首席经济学家庞溟(Bruce Pang)对道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)表示，届时有关GDP目标的表述就将显示出中国宏观经济政策的范围，以及政府为保增长而必须做出的取舍。 6park.com
“The narrative of GDP targets will precisely show the scope of China’s macroeconomic policies and what the government has to trade off to maintain its growth,” Bruce Pang, head of Greater China research and chief economist at JLL, told Dow Jones Newswires. 6park.com
    
分析人士表示，若增长目标为5%或更高，可能表明政府重振经济的决心坚定，暗示政府未来将采取更积极的刺激措施。若增长目标低于5%，则很可能被视为更加悲观，暗示政府政策会有所克制。 6park.com
A target of 5% or more could signal strong determination to revive the economy, suggesting more aggressive stimulus ahead, analysts say. One below 5% would likely be seen as more bearish, suggesting policy restraint. 6park.com
    
解读增长目标的关键在于配套措施，这些措施将彰显出中国政府计划如何实现目标。 6park.com
The key to interpreting the target will be the accompanying measures, which will shed light on how Beijing plans to deliver. 6park.com
     
▪ 通缩与消费：德国商业银行(Commerzbank AG)资深中国经济学家胡东安(Tommy Wu)表示，另一个需要关注的重要问题是中国政府是否愿意推出更积极的刺激政策来提振消费支出。他告诉道琼斯通讯社，这将比额外的基础设施支出带来更大的益处。 6park.com
DEFLATION & CONSUMPTION: Another important thing to watch is Beijing’s willingness to roll out more aggressive stimulus to boost consumer spending, said Tommy Wu, senior China economist at Commerzbank AG. “That will provide a bigger bang for the buck than additional infrastructure spending,” he told Dow Jones Newswires. 6park.com
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预计中国政府今年的目标是使居民消费价格(CPI)涨幅位于3%左右，中国CPI涨幅自2015年以来一直维持在该水平。 6park.com
Beijing is expected to set its consumer inflation target at around 3% this year, as it has since 2015. 6park.com
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投资者越来越关注经济增长重要引擎中国消费需求的情况。1月份，中国CPI创下逾14年来最大降幅，凸显出需求持续疲软。 6park.com
Investors have become increasingly concerned about the strength of China’s consumer demand, a key engine of economic growth. China’s consumer inflation in January fell at the fastest pace in over 14 years, underlining continued weakness in demand. 6park.com
    
德意志银行研究部(DB Research)在一份报告中说，投资者应关注消费刺激措施，包括以旧换新计划、鼓励大件设备更新换代的措施，以及吸引外资和改革金融部门和资本市场的举措。 6park.com
“Investors should look for measures to stimulate consumption including through trade-in programs, incentives to upgrade large-scale equipment as well as moves to attract foreign investment and reform the financial sector and capital markets,” DB Research said in a note. 6park.com
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▪ 房地产：决策者无疑将提到房地产行业，但政策措辞将受到密切关注。 6park.com
PROPERTY: Policymakers will doubtless address the property sector, but how policies are phrased will be under scrutiny. 6park.com
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中国可能会依靠国有企业帮助负债累累的开发商完成住宅项目的建设。亚洲协会(Asia Society)的牛犇(Neil Thomas)和钱镜在一份报告中说，投资者将关注中国国务院总理李强是否不再提及“房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的”这一表述，以寻找即将出台的房地产行业政策的线索。 6park.com
China is likely to rely on state-owned enterprises to help indebted developers finish housing projects. Investors will watch whether Premier Li omits the phrase “housing are for living in, not for speculation,” for clues about upcoming property-sector policies, Neil Thomas and Jing Qian from Asia Society said in a report. 6park.com
     
2016年底，高层决策者开始强调“房住不炒”，试图加强对房地产市场的控制。去年7月，中共中央政治局的声明不再提及这句话，这被视为向放松政策倾斜的迹象。 6park.com
Top policymakers started emphasizing that line in late 2016 as they sought to tighten control over the property market. When they left the line out of the Politburo statement in July last year, it was seen as a sign of a tilt toward easing. 6park.com
    
仲量联行的庞溟说，如果李强在两会上不提这句话，可能表明中国将进一步放松房地产政策。 6park.com
If Li doesn’t mention the phrase at the Two Sessions, it could suggest that China is going to relax property policies even further, JLL’s Bruce Pang says. 6park.com
    
穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)认为，随着政府宣布扩大支持范围和明确的市场干预措施，房地产行业有望获得一条救生索。穆迪表示，有关部门可以在提供更多的房地产行业资金方面提供帮助，以加快未完工楼盘的建设。项目交付延迟不但削弱了信心，也削弱了需求。他们还表示，刺激需求措施可能包括再次放宽对首次购房者的限制，并降低首付比例。” 6park.com
Moody’s Analytics sees scope for “a lifeline for real estate,” with announcements of widening support and clear market interventions. Authorities could help supply with more property-sector funding to expedite construction of unfinished properties, says Moody’s. Delays in delivering projects has sapped confidence and weakened demand. “Efforts to boost demand could bring another easing of restrictions for first-time home buyers and a reduction of the down payment ratio,” they add. 6park.com
      
▪ 财政预算：市场观察人士还在关注政府是否会对经济提供更多的财政支持，同时密切关注地方政府债务水平的增长。 6park.com
FISCAL BUDGET: Market watchers are also looking if there is more fiscal support for the economy, while keeping an eye on growing levels of local-government debt. 6park.com
    
高盛(Goldman Sachs)的策略师认为，中国政府将把2024年的赤字目标设定为GDP的3%。中国在去年3月也设定了同样的目标，但在增发人民币1万亿元（约合1,391.2亿美元）的国债用于救灾防灾后，将其修正为3.8%。 6park.com
Goldman Sachs strategists think the government will set a 2024 deficit target at 3% of GDP. China set the same target last March but revised it to 3.8% after issuing one trillion yuan ($139.12 billion) of special bonds to support disaster relief. 6park.com
    
高盛在一份报告中称，若政府宣布的内容高于预期，如赤字目标超过GDP的3%-3.5%，或中央政府特别国债发行额超过人民币1万亿元，将有助于增强市场对今年经济前景的信心。 6park.com
Any upside surprises, like a deficit target bigger than 3%-3.5% of GDP or a central government special bond issuance quota exceeding CNY1 trillion, “could help improve confidence towards the economic outlook this year,” GS said in a note. 6park.com
     
▪ 市场反应：面对这么多公布内容，投资者将思考如何根据这些消息开展交易。 6park.com
REACTION: With so many announcements to consider, investors will ponder how to trade the news. 6park.com
     
瑞银(UBS)的分析师和策略师在一份报告中说，这在很大程度上取决于有关部门是否能让投资者相信，政府真的想要重启停滞不前的经济增长引擎，即消费和投资。 6park.com
Much depends on whether authorities convince investors that they are serious about restarting the “stalled engines of economic growth: consumption and investment,” UBS analysts and strategists said in a note. 6park.com
     
若出台的支持政策较为温和，瑞银建议采取所谓的“杠铃策略”（即同样投资于高风险和低风险证券），并向防御性高收益派息股倾斜。他们称，这个领域与国有企业有很大的重叠，可能会极大地获益于定向宽松政策和国家队入市。国家队入市指的是政府相关机构进行的旨在支撑市场的买入行动。如果政策制定者带来积极的惊喜，低廉的估值将提供机会布局对复苏敏感的互联网和消费板块，以及中国未来增长动力的中长期受益者，如消费、绿色科技和高科技板块。 6park.com
In the event of moderately supportive policy, UBS suggests a so-called barbell strategy—investing equally in high- and low-risk securities—with a tilt to defensive, high-yielding dividend stocks. “This segment, which overlaps heavily with state-owned enterprises (SOEs), is likely to benefit disproportionately from both targeted easing and National Team buying,” they add, referring to market-supportive stock purchases by government-related entities. If policymakers deliver a positive surprise, cheap valuations offer an opportunity to “position in recovery-sensitive internet and consumer sectors, as well as medium- to longer-term beneficiaries of China’s growth drivers of the future, like consumption, green tech, and high-tech industries.” 6park.com
    
分析师认为有一点显而易见，如果不加大支持力度，现状将持续下去。 6park.com
What’s clear for analysts is that without a step-up in support, the status quo will persist. 6park.com
    
德国商业银行的胡东安称，中国政府可能需要采取更大胆的措施为经济增长托底并重振市场信心。 6park.com
“Beijing will likely need to take bolder measures to put a floor on growth and to revive market confidence,” Commerzbank’s Wu said.