Qualcomm’s Smartphone Future Looks Brighter With AI


人工智能iPhone的讽刺之处在于，它还可能帮助一家苹果公司最不想帮助的公司——高通。


去年在中国举行的贸易展览会上展示的搭载高通骁龙芯片的手机。

人工智能(AI) iPhone的讽刺之处在于，它还可能帮助一家苹果公司(Apple)最不想帮助的公司。 6park.com
The irony of an AI iPhone is that it could also help one company that Apple is least interested in helping.  6park.com
在苹果公司发布最新财报后，投资者日益憧憬这样一个设备。该公司财报显示，3月份当季的iPhone营收明显疲软，但这早在意料之中，而且该公司通过大手笔的股票回购缓解了这一消息的影响。首席执行官库克(Tim Cook)还借此机会进一步宣扬苹果公司对生成式AI的兴趣，这让分析师们更加相信，支持AI的iPhone即将问世。Melius Research的Ben Reitzes在给客户的报告中预测，“AI驱动的iPhone超级周期很可能在2025年到来”。上周五，苹果公司股价大涨6%，创下18个月以来的最大单日涨幅。 6park.com
Investors are increasingly enthusiastic about such a device following Apple’s latest earnings. Those results showed a pronounced weakness in iPhone revenue during the March quarter, but that was already expected, and the company cushioned the news with a generous stock buyback. Chief Executive Tim Cook also used the occasion to further tout Apple’s interest in generative artificial intelligence, which has analysts more convinced that an AI-enabled iPhone is on the horizon. Ben Reitzes of Melius Research predicted “an AI-driven iPhone supercycle is likely coming in 2025” in his note to clients. Apple’s shares jumped 6% on Friday, the stock’s best single-day gain in 18 months.  6park.com
  6park.com
在此之前，高通公司(Qualcomm)创下了更出色的单日表现。iPhone和许多其他无线设备使用该公司生产的调制解调器芯片。高通公布截至3月财季的财报后，上周四股价大涨近10%，该财报显示，芯片销售受益于支持AI的Android手机，如1月份上市的三星(Samsung)最新Galaxy系列。 6park.com
That followed an even better day for Qualcomm. The maker of modem chips used in the iPhone and many other wireless devices saw its stock jump nearly 10% on Thursday after its own March quarter results, where chip sales were helped by AI-enabled Android phones such as Samsung’s latest Galaxy family that went on sale in January. 



今年，越来越多在硬件中嵌入AI处理器和功能的智能手机和个人电脑进入市场。这种端侧AI具有AI任务处理速度更快和隐私性更高等优点，因为这些任务需要在云端来回传输的数据更少。三星的Galaxy S24手机提供实时翻译和搜图等功能。市场反应良好，根据Counterpoint Research的数据，S24手机上市后前三周的销量较去年的上一代Galaxy系列同时间周期的销量增长了8%。 6park.com
A growing number of smartphones and personal computers with AI processors and capabilities embedded in the hardware are making their way to the market this year. Such on-device AI offers benefits such as faster speed in processing AI tasks as well as greater privacy—as less data has to go back and forth between the cloud for such tasks. Samsung’s Galaxy S24 phones offer functions such as real-time translating and image-based web search. The market has been receptive; unit sales of the S24 phones during their first three weeks after launch were up 8% from the previous Galaxy family’s sales last year during the same window, according to Counterpoint Research.  6park.com
   
鉴于苹果公司的营销实力，支持AI的iPhone的推出很可能会进一步推动端侧AI市场的发展。即使考虑到苹果公司和高通的长期敌意，这对高通公司来说也是一大利好。长期以来，高通公司一直主导着调制解调器芯片（也称基带）市场，这种芯片负责将设备连接到运营商网络。高通的骁龙(Snapdragon)中央处理器也是多种Android手机（包括三星的最新产品）的主要计算芯片。此外，该公司在RF（射频）芯片方面的业务也在不断增长，这些芯片与基带配合使用，可以过滤干扰并增强信号强度。 6park.com
The launch of an AI-enabled iPhone would likely further juice the market for on-device AI, given Apple’s marketing prowess. And that would be a major benefit for Qualcomm, even given the two companies’ longstanding animosity. Qualcomm has long dominated the market for modem chips—also known as basebands—that handle the task of connecting a device to a carrier network. Its Snapdragon central processor is also the main computing chip for a variety of Android phones, including the latest from Samsung. And it has a growing business in the RF (radio frequency) chips that work with basebands to filter interference and boost signal strength. 6park.com
  
对于在设备上处理艰巨的AI算法的智能手机而言，这些元件能否在节省电力的同时紧密协作变得至关重要。这将发挥高通公司的优势，尤其是在该公司长期擅长的无线组件方面。“如果在手机中处理AI，计算芯片和内存就会消耗更多电能，”TD Cowen分析师Matt Ramsay说。“如果你希望电池续航时间相同，那么你从哪里获得电力预算呢？答案是调制解调器、射频和屏幕。” 6park.com
For smartphones processing demanding AI algorithms on the device, the ability of such components to work closely together while conserving power becomes paramount. That plays to Qualcomm’s advantages—particularly among the wireless components that the company has a long-established expertise in. “If AI is in a phone, the computer and memory is going to consume more power,” said TD Cowen analyst Matt Ramsay. “If you want the battery life to be the same, where are you going to get the power budget from? Modem, RF and screen.”  6park.com
  
这可能甚至有助于延长高通公司的与苹果公司有争议业务的寿命，苹果公司长期以来一直在努力将高通的芯片从其设备中移除。苹果公司未能开发出自己的调制解调器，促使两家公司去年延长了合作期限。据信今年将推出的iPhone中也将使用高通的射频芯片，此前芯片制造商Skyworks在上周的季度电话会议上告诉投资者，该公司丢掉了这块业务。瑞银分析师Tim Arcuri在给客户的一份报告中说：“可以说苹果公司没有开发出调制解调器的时间越长，高通公司的优势就会越大，因为AI需要更紧密的调制解调器/射频集成，以保持电池续航时间的可控性。” 6park.com
That could even help extend the life of Qualcomm’s contentious business with Apple, which has long been working to get Qualcomm’s chips out of its devices. Apple’s failure to develop its own modem led to the two companies extending their deal last year. Qualcomm is also believed to have won a place for its RF chips in this year’s coming iPhone lineup after chip maker Skyworks told investors during its own quarterly call last week that it lost that socket. In a note to clients, UBS analyst Tim Arcuri said “as time goes on without an Apple modem, Qualcomm’s leverage grows arguably stronger as AI requires much tighter modem/RF integration to keep battery life manageable.”  6park.com
   
高通公司还将在支持AI的个人电脑领域大展拳脚， 预计今年晚些时候将有大量此类个人电脑上市。对于高通而言，只要在个人电脑领域的份额有所增长，就完全是利好，该公司目前在该领域几乎没有业务。微软(Microsoft)本月晚些时候将举行的Build大会预计将展示许多支持AI的新款笔记本电脑，包括采用高通公司骁龙处理器的机型。 6park.com
Qualcomm is also making a major play in AI-enabled PCs, a large number of which are expected to launch later this year. Any share gains in PCs would represent pure upside for the company, as it has little presence there now. Microsoft’s Build conference later this month is expected to showcase many new AI-enabled laptop computers, including models powered by Qualcomm’s Snapdragon processor.  6park.com
   
对于智能手机和个人电脑这两个基本成熟的市场来说，端侧AI能否真正带来急需的销售增长还有待观察。但与许多其他芯片股不同的是，高通公司目前的估值并没有太多地反映AI题材。根据FactSet的数据，该股上周五收盘时的预估市盈率约为17倍，较PHLX Semiconductor Index低39%。PHLX Semiconductor Index的预估市盈率为近十年来的最高水平，为28.3倍。通过让智能手机变得更加智能，从而帮助多卖出一些智能手机，这一趋势可能对高通大有助益。 6park.com
Much remains to be seen about whether on-device AI can actually spark a much-needed boost in sales for smartphones and PCs, two largely mature markets. But unlike many other chip stocks, Qualcomm’s current valuation isn’t reflecting much in the way of AI hype. The shares closed Friday around 17 times forward earnings—a 39% discount to the PHLX Semiconductor Index’s near-decade high multiple of 28.3, according to FactSet. Helping sell a few more smartphones by making them even smarter could go a long way.