Fed Chair Jerome Powell Projects Optimism, But Inflation Data Are in the Driver’s Seat


美联储主席鲍威尔周三试图保持美联储政策选择的开放性，他坚持自己的观点，认为利率处于限制性水平，通胀有可能重拾下降势头。


美联储主席鲍威尔拒绝了美联储将在通胀率3%时宣布胜利的观点。

美国联邦储备委员会（简称：美联储）主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周三试图保持美联储政策选择的开放性，他坚持自己的观点，认为利率处于限制性水平，通胀有可能重拾下降势头。 6park.com
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tried to keep the central bank’s options open Wednesday by sticking with his view that interest rates are restrictive and that inflation was likely to resume its decline. 6park.com
   
但一连串物价和工资压力数据令人失望，导致投资者不再那么重视美联储的展望，而更多地关注经济数据的走势。 6park.com
But a string of disappointing readings on price and wage pressures have led investors to put less weight on the central bank’s outlook and more attention on how the economic data unfold. 6park.com
Renaissance Macro Research经济研究主管Neil Dutta说：“不管鲍威尔怎么说，最终的决定因素是通胀数据。” 6park.com
“Powell can say whatever he wants, but ultimately the inflation numbers will dictate what happens,” said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. 6park.com
 
美联储在周三的政策声明中维持了降息可能性仍大于加息可能性的措辞，即所谓的偏宽松立场。但美联储前高级顾问、耶鲁大学管理学院教授William English表示，如果通胀数据持续走高，美联储有可能需要放弃这一指引，为加息更多地敞开大门。 6park.com
The Fed maintained language in its policy statement Wednesday that suggested an interest-rate cut was still more likely than an increase—a so-called easing bias. But William English, a former senior Fed adviser, said it was possible that if inflation data continued to run hotter, the Fed would need to jettison that guidance, opening the door wider to hikes. 6park.com
   
“我们了解到的情况是，他们离考虑加息还有一段距离，”English说。“如果他们在通胀问题上没有取得进一步进展，那么在某个时候说‘我们不知道利率会朝哪个方向发展’将是正确的。” 6park.com
“What we learned was they are still a ways from that,” said English, a professor at Yale School of Management. “If they just don’t make further progress on inflation, it will be right at some point to say, ‘We don’t know what direction rates are going to go.’ ” 6park.com
   
事实上，鲍威尔在周三表示，他认为美联储可能没有必要恢复加息，这令投资者欢欣鼓舞，但他也保留了加息的可能性。他说：“就峰值利率而言，我认为......需要由数据为我们解答这个问题。” 6park.com
Indeed, while Powell cheered investors on Wednesday when he said he didn’t think it was likely the central bank would have to resume rate increases, he left the possibility open. “In terms of the peak rate, I think…the data will have to answer that question for us,” he said.

两大阵营

在美联储内部，一个阵营一直担心在过长时间内保持过高利率，尤其是在通胀和工资增长减速的情况下。 6park.com
Inside the central bank, one camp of officials has been worried about leaving rates too high for too long, especially if inflation and wage growth were decelerating. 6park.com
  
将利率维持在目前的水平（20年来的高点）更长时间，可能会给地区银行、商业房地产投资者和其他行业带来更多痛苦，这些行业对过去两年利率的快速上升尤其毫无防备。 6park.com
Keeping rates at their current level, a two-decade high, for a longer period could cause more pain for regional banks, commercial real-estate investors and other industries that were particularly unprepared for the rapid increase in interest rates over the last two years. 6park.com
另一个阵营则认为，由于经济强劲，今年几乎没有必要降息。他们担心通胀率会停留在远高于2.5%的水平，而美联储的目标是2%。他们希望在考虑降息之前有更多证据表明经济正在放缓。最新数据为这个阵营提供了更多支持，增加了官员们在降息前会等待看到更多经济放缓证据的可能性，而经济放缓一旦开始往往很难逆转。 6park.com
Another camp has seen little need to cut rates this year because the economy is strong. They worried that inflation would get stuck at a level well above 2.5%, when the Fed targets 2%. They have wanted more evidence that the economy is slowing before entertaining rate cuts. The latest data have given more support to that latter group and raised the odds that officials wait to see more evidence of a slowdown—one that is frequently hard to reverse once it starts—before cutting rates.

哪个领域过热？

鲍威尔列举了一系列认为高利率确实正在令需求降温的理由，其中包括招聘放缓和工人辞职比例下降。 6park.com
Powell cited a list of reasons to think high interest rates were indeed cooling demand, including a slowdown in hiring and a decline in the share of workers quitting their jobs. 6park.com
鲍威尔说，他仍然预计通胀会下降，一定程度上是因为住房租金放缓的滞后效应尚未传导至官方通胀指标。 6park.com
And he said he continued to expect inflation to decline, partly because of the lagged behind effects of a slowdown in housing rents that have yet to feed through to official inflation measures. 6park.com
前波士顿联邦储备银行行长罗森格伦(Eric Rosengren)说：“要想获得持续的通胀，必须要有一些东西能够产生这种通胀，而现在，并没有一个明显的过热领域能够产生价格和工资上涨的可能性。” 6park.com
“To get a sustained inflation, there has to be something generating that, and right now, there’s not an obvious area that is overheated and that is generating the likelihood of prices and wages going up,” said Eric Rosengren, former president of the Boston Fed. 6park.com
  
罗森格伦说，如果工资和薪金像周二的一份薪酬增长报告暗示的那样似乎在重新加速增长，那就更令人担忧了。他表示：“如果工资增长稳定在4%以上，那就会增加‘通胀方面的进展将慢于大多数人预期’的风险。” 6park.com
It would be more worrisome, he said, if wages and salaries appeared to be reaccelerating, as a report on compensation growth hinted at on Tuesday. If wage growth settles above 4%, that increases the risk “that progress on inflation will be slower than most people were anticipating,” said Rosengren. 6park.com
  
Dutta说，他赞同鲍威尔的观点，即随着住房租金放缓和全球通胀降温，未来会有很大的价格下行压力来源。“有迹象表明劳动力市场正在回暖吗？并没有确切迹象，”Dutta说。“通胀走弱的理由仍然很充分，坦率地说，在这种情况改变之前，美联储应该保持偏宽松倾向。” 6park.com
Dutta said he shares Powell’s view that there’s a significant source of lower price pressures ahead as housing rents slow and global inflation cools. “Are there signs that the labor markets are reheating? Not really,” said Dutta. “The case for weaker inflation is still strong, and until that changes, the Fed should maintain a dovish bias, quite frankly.”

通胀就维持在3%了吗？

另一些人担心，住房和制造业等对利率敏感的经济部门可能已经经受住了美联储利率政策的冲击，这就催生了紧俏的劳动力市场会维持经济增长的再加速、从而使通胀不会下降很多的风险。 6park.com
Others worry that interest-sensitive sectors of the economy such as housing and manufacturing may have weathered the brunt of the Fed’s rate policies, creating the risk that a tight labor market sustains a reacceleration of growth that keeps inflation from falling much. 6park.com
  
如果通胀似乎维持在3%左右不动，那么在有关他们应该做些什么的问题上，美联储官员们可能会面临一系列更加棘手的对话。毕马威(KPMG)的首席经济学家Diane Swonk说，她预计，如果出现这种情况，一些美联储官员会提出收紧政策的可能性，尽管 “这不是鲍威尔想要的”。 6park.com
If inflation appears to be getting stuck around 3%, officials could face a more thorny set of conversations over what they should do. Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said she expected some Fed officials to float the prospect of tighter policy if that occurs, even though “it’s not where Powell wants to be.” 6park.com
 
鲍威尔周三回避了一个有关此次会议上是否讨论过加息的问题。他表示，如果通胀被证明 “比预期更持久，而且......正在横向波动”，那么美联储将暂缓降息，而不是加息。 6park.com
Powell on Wednesday sidestepped a question over whether rate increases had been discussed at the meeting. For his part, he said that if inflation proves “more persistent than expected and…is moving sideways,” then the Fed would hold off on rate cuts, as opposed to raising rates. 6park.com
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鲍威尔还驳斥了美联储将在通胀位于3%的情况下宣布胜利的说法。“我们当然对3%的通胀不满意，”他说。“‘3%’不能和‘满意’放在一个句子里。” 6park.com
Powell also rejected the idea that the Fed would declare victory with inflation at 3%. “Of course we’re not satisfied with 3% inflation,” he said. “ ‘Three percent’ can’t be in a sentence with ‘satisfied.’ ” 6park.com
   
暂时而言，美联储认为降息可能性大于加息可能性的观点 “是合理的”，English说。“我本人并不倾向于认为他们今天就应该加息，但现在确实存在下一步行动的方向是向上的可能性。” 6park.com
For now, the Fed’s view that a rate cut is more likely than an increase “is a reasonable one,” said English. “I’m not inclined myself to think they should be raising rates today, but there is now a real possibility that the next move could be to the high side.”