| 送交者: icemessenger[♂☆★★★SuperMod★★★☆♂] 于 2024-04-25 3:45 已读 4958 次 1 赞 | icemessenger的个人频道 |
The Folly of China’s Real-Estate Boom Was Easy to See, but No One Wanted to Stop It
开发商、购房者、房地产中介，甚至是为中国房地产繁荣提供资金支持的华尔街银行，当初都忽视了泡沫的警示信号。
2016年，在中国北方，天津环亚国际开发项目中的马球场。 When New York hedge-fund manager Parker Quillen visited a glitzy new development in northern China called Tianjin Goldin Metropolitan, he wondered how on earth the developer would fill all that space. 6park.com
纽约对冲基金经理奎林(Parker Quillen)在中国北方参观一个名为天津环亚国际(Tianjin Goldin Metropolitan)的华丽新项目时，他想知道开发商究竟会用何种方式吸引客户。 6park.com
该项目的公寓起价为100万美元，此外，还计划建造一座比帝国大厦还高大的写字楼、一座歌剧院以及若干购物中心和酒店。项目总面积将超过摩纳哥的土地面积。 6park.comIt had apartments starting at $1 million and plans for an office tower bigger than the Empire State Building, an opera hall, shopping malls and hotels. Its total square footage was to exceed the land area of Monaco. 6park.com
有吸引买家的计划吗？奎林问道。带他参观的营销代理回答说，马球。 6park.comWas there a plan for attracting buyers? Quillen asked. Polo, said the marketing agent showing him around. 6park.com
奎林问：“马球？骑马打的那种？”。 6park.com“Polo? You mean the horse thing?” he asked. 6park.com
奎林记得那人答道：“正是。” 6park.com“Exactly,” he recalled her saying. 6park.com
这位营销人员当时身着马球服，带着奎林穿过一个内有100多匹马球马的马厩。奎林询问了环亚的创始人是否对该项目进行过可行性研究。该营销人员说不知道。这名创始人是一位靠销售电脑显示器致富的亿万富翁马球爱好者。 6park.comThe agent, dressed in riding gear, led him through a stable with more than 100 polo ponies. Quillen asked if Goldin’s founder, a billionaire polo enthusiast who got rich selling computer monitors, had done a viability study for the project. She said she had no idea. 6park.com
奎林说：“然后我就明白了，这个项目的想法是，国际高管会来到天津，在这里设立公司总部，理由是他们喜欢马球。”他表示：“我当时想，天哪。” 6park.com“Then I realized that the vision was that international executives would come to Tianjin and set up their corporate headquarters here because they like polo,” Quillen said. “I was like, oh my God.” 6park.com
回到纽约后，奎林将更多资金投入到对中国房地产类股的做空押注中。 6park.comWhen Quillen returned to New York, he poured more money into his wagers against Chinese property stocks.
马球原本应该为天津的这个项目吸引买家，但该项目已经失败。 That was 2016, during the heady days when the Chinese property boom was just getting going. Even then, the truth was obvious to anyone who knew what to look for: The boom had turned into a bubble—and was likely to end very badly. 6park.com
那是2016年，正是中国房地产热潮刚刚兴起的大好时光。即便在那时，对于任何一个有心观察的人来说，真相都显而易见： 这股热潮已经变成泡沫——而且很可能会以非常糟糕的结局收场。 6park.com
然而，泡沫继续恶化，因为没有人希望盛宴终结。中国的开发商、购房者、房地产中介，甚至是为这场繁荣提供资金支持的华尔街银行，都忽视了警示信号。 6park.comThe bubble proceeded to get even worse, though, because no one wanted the music to stop. Chinese developers, home buyers, real-estate agents and even the Wall Street banks that helped underwrite the boom all ignored warning signs. 6park.com
开发商在投行人士和律师的帮助下，想方设法掩盖他们背负的债务金额。购房者虽然怀疑房地产市场过度膨胀，但还是在继续买房。寻求丰厚回报的中外投资者为开发商提供了大量资金。 6park.comDevelopers found ways to obscure the amount of debt they were holding, with the help of bankers and lawyers. Buyers who suspected the property markets were overbuilt bought more anyway. Chinese and foreign investors seeking juicy returns flooded developers with funding. 6park.com
大家当时都有一个似乎无懈可击的假设，即中国政府绝不会允许房地产市场崩溃。中国人把大部分财富都投资在了住房上。如果允许楼市暴跌，民众的大部分积蓄可能会化为乌有，对共产党的信心也会涣散。 6park.comThe cheerleaders were operating on a seemingly bulletproof assumption that China’s government would never allow the market to crash. Chinese people had invested the majority of their wealth in housing. Letting the market tumble could wipe out much of the population’s savings—and erode confidence in the Communist Party. 6park.com
现在，中国正为没有及早采取行动控制这一切付出代价。 6park.comNow China is paying the price for failing to act earlier to rein it all in. 6park.com
目前已有50多家中国开发商拖欠国际债务。专注中国房地产的民间智库可研(Keyan)称，约有50万人失去了工作。全中国约有2,000万套住宅尚未完工，估计需要4,400亿美元才能完工。 6park.comMore than 50 Chinese developers have defaulted on their international debt. Around 500,000 people have lost their jobs, according to Keyan, a private think tank focused on Chinese property. Some 20 million housing units across China have been left unfinished, and an estimated $440 billion is needed to complete them. 6park.com
3月份，中国主要城市二手房价格下跌5.9%。地方政府由于失去了向开发商出售土地的收入，在偿还债务方面面临困难。随着房地产和相关行业对经济增长的拖累加大，整体经济变得脆弱。房地产和相关行业一度占到中国国内生产总值的25%左右。 6park.comPrices for secondhand homes in major cities fell 5.9% in March. Local governments, deprived of income from selling land to developers, are struggling to service their debts. The overall economy is fragile, as real estate and related industries, which once accounted for around 25% of gross domestic product, become a bigger drag on growth.
“一文不值” In 2016, the same year Parker Quillen toured the polo grounds in Tianjin, a pair of Hong Kong-based accountants traveled to mainland China and hit the road in a rented Buick. 6park.com
2016年，就在奎林参观天津马球场的同一年，两位香港会计师来到中国大陆，开着租来的别克(Buick)汽车上路了。 6park.com
图洛克(Gillem Tulloch)和史蒂文森(Nigel Stevenson)及其公司GMT Research专门挖掘所谓的“金融反常现象”和“猫腻”，他们怀疑中国的房地产市场存在很多这种现象。 6park.comGillem Tulloch and Nigel Stevenson and their firm, GMT Research, specialize in digging out what they call “financial anomalies” and “shenanigans,” and they suspected a lot of that in China’s housing market. 6park.com
在几十年前的毛泽东时代，市场由国家控制，大多数人住在由工作单位分配的房子里。20世纪90年代，政府开始放开市场，私营开发商如雨后春笋般涌现，一排又一排的住宅楼拔地而起，掀起了历史上最大的投资热潮。 6park.comDecades earlier, in the Mao Zedong era, the market was controlled by the state, and most people lived in homes provided by their Communist Party work units. In the 1990s, authorities started liberalizing the market, and private developers sprang up everywhere, erecting row after row of housing towers in one of the biggest investment booms in history. 6park.com
在图洛克和史蒂文森开始他们的旅行时，许多政府官员和经济学家都在警告市场存在泡沫。但只要市场出现疲软迹象，政府就会介入。中国政府出台了刺激购房的新政策，降低了利率，取消了购房限制。信心得以恢复，销售再次起飞。 6park.comBy the time Tulloch and Stevenson began their trip, many government officials and economists were warning of a bubble. But whenever the market showed signs of faltering, the government would step in. Beijing rolled out new policies to stimulate buying, lowered interest rates and lifted home purchase limits. Confidence was restored, and sales took off again. 6park.com
图洛克和史蒂文森心存疑虑。当他们驱车穿越中国各地时，空置大楼和烂尾项目之多让他们大为震惊。 6park.comTulloch and Stevenson were suspicious. As they drove across the country, they were amazed by the number of empty buildings and busted projects. 6park.com
他们盯上了中国销售额最大的开发商中国恒大集团(China Evergrande Group)的项目。该集团的创始人兼董事长许家印当时很快就要成为中国首富，据《福布斯》(Forbes)报道，2017年他的个人财富超过400亿美元。 6park.comThey zeroed in on the projects of China Evergrande Group, the country’s largest developer by sales. Its founder and chairman, Hui Ka Yan, was on his way to becoming China’s richest man, with personal wealth of more than $40 billion in 2017, according to Forbes.
中国恒大创始人兼董事长许家印曾经是中国最富有的人之一。 Tulloch and Stevenson visited 40 Evergrande projects in 16 cities, concluding that many of them were “dead assets,” earning little or no income. Those included sparsely occupied hotels, shops that hadn’t ever been occupied and entire developments far from major population centers. 6park.com
图洛克和史蒂文森造访了恒大在16个城市的40个项目，得出的结论是，许多项目都是“僵尸资产”，收入很少或根本没有收入。这些僵尸资产包括入住率极低的酒店、从未有租户入驻的商铺以及远离主要人口中心的园区。 6park.com
在距离朝鲜边境几小时车程的一个港口城市，有一个项目的六栋住宅楼被废弃，没有工人、住户或销售人员。然而，据图洛克和史蒂文森称，恒大在账面上仍将该项目视为优良资产，并未减记其价值。 6park.comAt one project, in a port city a few hours from the North Korean border, six residential towers were abandoned, with no workmen, residents or marketing staff. Yet according to Tulloch and Stevenson, Evergrande still treated the project on its books as a performing asset, without writing down its value. 6park.com
图洛克和史蒂文森特别留意了恒大的停车库。许多车库几乎是空的。据他们估计，恒大已建成约40万个停车位，但却难以出租或出售，而在审计报表中，恒大仍将这些停车位的价值定为75亿美元，即每个停车位近2万美元。 6park.comTulloch and Stevenson paid special attention to Evergrande’s parking garages. Many were nearly empty. By their reckoning, Evergrande had built some 400,000 parking spaces it was struggling to rent or sell, yet in audited statements it continued to value the spaces at $7.5 billion, or nearly $20,000 per space. 6park.com
这两位会计师说，恒大将车位作为投资性不动产而非库存资产入账，这种会计处理方式在同行中不同寻常，使得恒大可以高估车位价值，并提前将收益入账。 6park.comThe developer booked the parking spaces as investment properties rather than inventory assets—an accounting treatment, unusual among its peers, that allowed Evergrande to overstate their value and book gains early, the two accountants said. 6park.com
他们在当年晚些时候写给客户的一份题为《审计师睡着了》(Auditors Asleep)的报告中写道：“根据我们的估计，该公司已经资不抵债，其股权一文不值。”报告认为，恒大只能通过增加借贷才能维持下去。 6park.com“The company is insolvent by our reckoning, and its equity worth nothing,” they wrote to clients later that year, in a report titled “Auditors Asleep.” The report concluded Evergrande could stay afloat only by borrowing more. 6park.com
恒大为其会计操作和商业行为进行了辩护，称其财务报告经过了审计。 6park.comEvergrande has defended its accounting and business practices, saying its financial results were audited. 6park.com
图洛克和史蒂文森说，许多客户都同意他们的分析，但他们认为没有多少人据此采取行动。 6park.comTulloch and Stevenson said that many of their clients agreed with their analysis, but they don’t think many of them acted on it.
香港会计师图洛克和一位同事开着租来的别克车环游中国，亲眼目睹了中国房地产市场的发展状况。 They were right not to. China’s property market was on the eve of a rebound, thanks to the government’s property-market rescue plan rolled out a year earlier. The next year, 2017, home sales rose 11%, and Evergrande’s Hong Kong-listed shares surged 458%. 6park.com
他们不行动是对的。得益于政府一年前推出的楼市救助计划，中国房地产市场当时正处于反弹的前夜。第二年，也就是2017年，恒大的房屋销售额增长了11%，恒大在香港上市的股票飙升了458%。 6park.com
对许多中国人来说，房地产似乎是比股市更明智、更安全的投资。许多人买了多套房子，空置在那里，一心盼着升值。 6park.comTo many Chinese people, real estate seems like a smarter and safer investment than stocks. Many bought multiple units and left them empty, satisfied just to see their values increase. 6park.com
现年35岁的Chen Yanzhi说，她还在上大学时就开始买房，正好之前靠炒股赚了一点钱。她开始在全国各地看各种新楼盘项目，只要看到中意的房子就立马买下来。 6park.comChen Yanzhi, now 35, says she began buying homes while still in college, after making a bit of money trading stocks. She started visiting new projects around the country, snapping up units whenever she saw one she liked. 6park.com
十年间，她在南京、上海和海南省等地买卖了20多套房子。第一套房子花了她大约7万美元。几年后，她花380万美元在上海购置了一套房产。Chen在接受采访时说，“我爱房子，我爱与房子有关的一切。” 6park.comOver a decade, she bought and sold more than 20 homes in places such as Nanjing, Shanghai and Hainan province. The first cost around $70,000. Years later, she paid $3.8 million for a property in Shanghai. “I love houses, and I love everything about houses,” Chen said in an interview. 6park.com
为开发商工作的年轻人也发了财。 6park.comYoung people made fortunes working for developers. 6park.com
40岁的Remen Xia曾在中国北方的吉林省做过恒大的销售经理，后来他跳槽到其他房地产公司。他说，到2018年和2019年时，他的年薪达到28万美元，而根据数据提供商Wind的数据，当时吉林省的平均工资还不到4,500美元。 6park.comRemen Xia, 40, was a sales manager at Evergrande in China’s northern Jilin province before he jumped to other property companies. By 2018 and 2019, he said, he was earning $280,000 a year, when the average salary for Jilin was less than $4,500, according to data provider Wind. 6park.com
开发商需要大量资金，这对乐于帮他们筹措资金的金融家们来说意味着有佣金可拿。数据提供商Dealogic的资料显示，从2017年到2021年期间，中国房地产开发商通过发行美元债券总计筹集了2,580亿美元。包括高盛(Goldman Sachs)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)等华尔街重量级银行在内的各家银行通过承销这些发债交易获得了17.2亿美元的收入。 6park.comDevelopers needed a lot of capital, which meant fees for financiers willing to raise it. From 2017 to 2021, Chinese real-estate developers raised $258 billion by selling dollar-denominated bonds, according to data provider Dealogic. Banks, including Wall Street heavyweights such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, collected $1.72 billion for underwriting these deals. 6park.com
银行家们在香港四季酒店的奢华大厅里开会讨论一笔笔的交易。据一位对冲基金经理回忆，他每个月至少参加一次在中国开发商拥有的游艇上举行的派对，那里有香槟和女伴。 6park.comBankers met to discuss deals in the lobby of the Hong Kong Four Seasons hotel. One hedge-fund manager recalled attending parties at least once a month on yachts owned by Chinese developers, with Champagne and female escorts.
河北省石家庄市郊区一处未完工的中国恒大住宅小区。
“挖洞” Chinese banks and international institutions such as Fidelity, Invesco, BlackRock and Pimco invested in Chinese property bonds. Demand for the bonds, which yielded double-digit returns, far exceeded supply, so investors appeared willing to tolerate dubious deal structures. 6park.com
中资银行以及富达(Fidelity)、景顺(Invesco)、贝莱德(BlackRock)和品浩(PIMCO)等国际机构投资了中国的房地产债券。由于这些债券的回报率高达两位数，需求远远超过供应，因此投资者似乎愿意容忍这里面可疑的交易结构。 6park.com
其中一种广受欢迎的策略被银行家和投资者戏称为“挖洞”，即利用空壳子公司借款，并由房地产开发母公司提供担保。根据《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)查阅到的文件资料，除了6月30日和12月31日这两个被大多数中国房地产公司用来计算财务业绩的截止日期，前述担保全年有效。 6park.comOne popular tactic, which bankers and investors nicknamed “hole-digging,” involved using shell subsidiaries to borrow money, guaranteed by the parent development companies. The guarantee was valid all year long—except, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, for June 30 and Dec. 31, the cutoff days most Chinese property companies use to base their financial results on. 6park.com
这种交易结构使母公司可以避免在它们自己的资产负债表中披露为子公司债务提供担保所产生的负债。律师和会计师都表示，这种做法并不违法，因为资产负债表按规定只需提供公司在某一特定时间点的财务健康状况。 6park.comThe structure enabled the parent companies to avoid disclosing on their own balance sheets the liabilities incurred by guaranteeing the subsidiary’ debt. It wasn’t illegal, lawyers and accountants said, because a balance sheet is supposed to provide only a snapshot of a company’s financial health at a specific point in time. 6park.com
据了解这种操作的开发商和银行家说，开发商有时会在借款时多次抵押相同的抵押品。 6park.comDevelopers sometimes pledged the same collateral multiple times when borrowing money, according to developers and bankers familiar with the activity. 6park.com
一家对冲基金的高管回忆说，他在半打私募债务发行的条款书上都看到过同样的抵押品清单，即开发商子公司的股份、应收账款或公司官员的私人飞机和豪宅。因为需要创造高回报的业绩，他还是购买了这些债券。 6park.comAn executive at one hedge fund recalled seeing the same list of collateral—shares of developers’ subsidiaries, receivables or company officials’ private jets and mansions—on term sheets for a half-dozen private debt offerings. He bought the debt anyway, given the need for high returns. 6park.com
他说，如果作为投资组合经理选择不忽视抵押品问题，拒绝购买这些债券，那么他的业绩将落在最后，他将被解雇。 6park.com“If a portfolio manager chooses not to overlook the collateral issue and refuses to buy those bonds, his performance will rank last, and he will get fired,” he said. 6park.com
据银行家和一家开发商的高管透露，中资银行非常热衷于承销此类债券，有时他们会同意将数以千万美元计的自有资金投资于这些债券，而不管债券的定价如何。银行的这种热情会向让其他投资者感觉相关交易十分火热，进而压低利率，使开发商的融资成本降低。 6park.comChinese banks were so eager to underwrite such offerings that they sometimes agreed to invest tens of millions of dollars of their own money in the bonds, no matter the pricing, according to bankers and an executive at one development company. Such bank participation would suggest to other investors that the deal was hot, thereby holding down the interest rate and making it less expensive for developers to raise money. 6park.com
这位高管说：“那个时候是我们选择投资者，而不是相反的情况。” 6park.com“At that time, we chose investors, not the other way around,” the executive said. 6park.com
当时恒大已成为中国最大的开发商，决心到2020年跻身世界百强企业。 6park.comEvergrande, having become China’s biggest developer, set its sights on becoming one of the world’s top 100 companies by 2020. 6park.com
一家中国评级机构的高管说，恒大要求他授予该公司主权信用评级，这将表明恒大与中国政府一样安全。 6park.comOne executive at a Chinese rating agency said Evergrande asked him to award the company a sovereign credit rating, which would signal Evergrande was as safe as the Chinese government.
全中国约有2,000万套住宅尚未完工，其中包括位于石家庄郊外的中国恒大烂尾项目中的许多住房。 Three large Chinese domestic companies awarded it triple-A ratings, the highest possible. S&P Global gave Evergrande only a B-plus rating, junk-bond territory. 6park.com
中国国内三家大公司给予了恒大最高的AAA评级。标普全球(S&P Global)只给了恒大B+评级，属于垃圾债券范畴。 6park.com
中国国家媒体强调了这种评级上的差异，《人民日报》写道，部分原因是“缺乏对（中国）公司的了解”。《人民日报》指责西方公司“夸大了中国经济和公司的潜在风险”，并称跨国公司可能是在帮助做空者。 6park.comChinese state media highlighted the discrepancy, with People’s Daily writing that it was partly due to “a lack of understanding of [Chinese] companies.” People’s Daily blamed Western firms for “exaggerating the potential risks of the Chinese economy and companies,” and said international firms could be helping short sellers. 6park.com
在2020年初抗疫封锁期间稍作暂停之后，市场继续强劲攀升。 6park.comAfter a brief pause during coronavirus lockdowns in early 2020, the market resumed its relentless climb. 6park.com
根据高盛(Goldman Sachs)的数据，中国住宅和开发商库存的总价值达到52万亿美元，是美国住宅市场规模的两倍，比整个美国债券市场还要大。根据广发银行(China Guangfa Bank)和西南财经大学(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)的一份报告，中国人近78%的财富捆绑在住宅物业上，而美国只有35%。 6park.comThe total value of Chinese homes and developers’ inventory hit $52 trillion, according to Goldman Sachs, twice the size of the U.S. residential market and bigger than the entire U.S. bond market. Chinese people had nearly 78% of their wealth tied up in residential property, compared with 35% in the U.S., according to a report by China Guangfa Bank and Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. 6park.com
纽约对冲基金经理奎林以及香港会计师图洛克和史蒂文森等怀疑论者对此感到困惑。 6park.comSkeptics like Quillen, the New York hedge-fund manager, and Tulloch and Stevenson, the Hong Kong accountants, were flummoxed. 6park.com
奎林在考察天津开发项目后积累的空头头寸亏损了数百万美元。他说，做空中国房地产股票就像与魔鬼对话时，魔鬼承诺10美元的股票将在两年内跌至零。“但魔鬼没有告诉你的是，”他说，“在这两年内，股票会先涨到100美元，然后再跌到零。” 6park.comQuillen had lost millions of dollars on the short positions he accumulated after his visit to the Tianjin development. Shorting China property stocks, he said, was like having a conversation with the devil in which the devil promised that a $10 stock would go to zero within two years. “But what the devil didn’t tell you,” he said, “is that within those two years, the stock goes to 100 first, then goes to zero.” 6park.com
到2020年底，警示信号越来越难以忽视。 6park.comBy late 2020, it was becoming harder to ignore the warning signs. 6park.com
天津的房价可与伦敦房子最贵的地方匹敌。全中国有数百万套住房空置。 6park.comPrices in Tianjin were comparable with the most expensive parts of London. Millions of units across China sat empty. 6park.com
奎林认为，情况真的不容乐观了。中国国家主席习近平一直在说“房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的”，而且有报道称监管机构正计划收紧信贷。奎林下了新的空头押注。 6park.comQuillen figured the writing was truly on the wall now. President Xi Jinping kept declaring that “homes are for living in, not for speculation,” and reports surfaced that regulators were planning to tighten credit. Quillen made new short bets.
“红线” On the first day of 2021, regulators imposed a policy known as the “three red lines,” which restricted new borrowing by overleveraged developers. Banks started demanding early loan repayments. Investors stopped buying developers’ bonds. 6park.com
2021年的第一天，监管机构实施了一项被称为“三道红线”的政策，限制杠杆率过高的开发商举借新资金。银行开始要求提前偿还贷款。投资者停止购买开发商的债券。 6park.com
几个月内，恒大无法向建筑材料和建筑服务供应商付款，2021年8月该公司数百个项目停工。同年晚些时候，恒大向政府求助未果。 6park.comWithin months, Evergrande was unable to pay suppliers of building materials and construction services. In August 2021, it stopped construction at hundreds of projects. It sought government help later that year, but didn’t get a bailout. 6park.com
开发商资金短缺导致楼盘烂尾的可能性吓坏了中国购房者，他们纷纷停止购房。中国百强房企销售额急剧下滑。Dealogic的数据显示，中国开发商发行的高收益率债券从2021年的230亿美元降至2022年的4.31亿美元。 6park.comChinese home buyers, spooked by the possibility that developers might run out of money and leave their homes unfinished, stopped buying. At China’s biggest 100 developers, sales nosedived. High-yield-bond issuance by Chinese developers fell from $23 billion in 2021 to $431 million in 2022, according to Dealogic. 6park.com 6park.com开发商就像多米诺骨牌一样陷入了流动性危机。 6park.comDevelopers fell into liquidity crises like dominoes. 6park.com
晨星(Morningstar)的数据显示，截至2021年底，贝莱德管理的一只高收益债券基金仍有9.41亿美元的中国房地产债券风险敞口，品浩的一只基金则有7.41亿美元。富达国际(Fidelity International)的一只债券基金有12.8亿美元的此类风险敞口。 6park.comAt the end of 2021, a high-yield-bond fund managed by BlackRock still had $941 million of exposure to China property bonds, and a Pimco fund, $741 million, according to Morningstar. Fidelity International had $1.28 billion of exposure in one bond fund. 6park.com
多年来一直炒房的个人投资者Chen说，她有一半的住宅现在没有租出去，有几套房子的价值现在低于她买时的价格。不过她说自己并不急于卖掉，仍然保持乐观。 6park.comChen, the individual investor who had been buying and selling homes for years, said half of her homes are now without tenants, and several are worth less than what she paid. She said she isn’t in a hurry to sell, though, and remains optimistic.
估计需要4,400亿美元才能使中国停滞的房地产项目完工。图为2018年，天津环亚国际项目中一座施工已经停滞的摩天大楼。 Xia, the former Evergrande sales manager, quit the industry in early 2023 after his then-employer, another developer, stopped paying his salary for six months. He now runs accounts on Chinese short-video apps. 6park.com
恒大的前销售经理Xia在2023年初离开了这个行业，他当时的雇主也是一家开发商，已经六个月没给他发工资。他现在在中国短视频应用软件上运营账号。 6park.com
上述香港会计师史蒂文森曾在2021年8月撰文称，尽管恒大在香港上市的股票从最高点下跌了95%，但做空恒大股票仍有可能获利。他预测恒大股票将跌至零。 6park.comStevenson, one of the Hong Kong accountants, had written in August 2021 that it was still possible to profit by shorting Evergrande’s stock, even though the Hong Kong-listed shares were down 95% from their peak. He predicted they would go to zero. 6park.com
2021年12月，恒大的国际债券违约。2024年1月，香港一家法院对恒大发出清盘命令，恒大股票在每股0.163港元的价格暂停交易。 6park.comIn December 2021, Evergrande defaulted on its international bonds. In January 2024, a Hong Kong court ordered Evergrande to liquidate, and trading in its shares were suspended at 2 cents apiece. 6park.com
3月，中国证监会称，恒大在2019年和2020年的销售额被虚增了共计784亿美元，成为有史以来最大的财务造假案之一。 6park.comIn March, the Chinese securities regulator said that Evergrande overstated its sales in 2019 and 2020 by a total of $78.4 billion, making it one of the largest ever alleged financial frauds. 6park.com
罗兵咸永道会计师事务所(PriceWaterhouseCoopers，即普华永道)于2023年初辞任恒大核数师，称其无法获得与部分房地产销售收入确认相关的信息等问题。上述另一位香港会计师图洛克说，他最近把自己公司的2016年恒大报告发到了罗兵咸永道的一个投诉热线，但他预计不会得到回复。 6park.comPricewaterhouseCoopers resigned as Evergrande’s auditor in early 2023, saying it was unable to obtain information relating to revenue recognition for some property sales, among other issues. Tulloch, the other Hong Kong accountant, said he recently sent his firm’s 2016 Evergrande report to a complaint line at PwC, but that he doesn’t expect a reply. 6park.com
奎林参观过的天津环亚国际的开发商高银金融(Goldin Financial)现已破产。那里的一座办公大楼被设计成手杖的样子，深受国际城市探险家的喜爱，他们在那里上演特技表演，并将视频发布到YouTube上。《吉尼斯世界纪录大全》(The Guinness Book of World Records)将其认证为世界上最高的空置建筑 6park.comGoldin Financial, the company that developed the Tianjin project Quillen visited, is bankrupt. An office tower there, designed to look like a walking stick, has become a favorite of international urban explorers who stage stunts there and post videos to YouTube. The Guinness Book of World Records has certified it as the world’s tallest unoccupied building. 6park.com
2021年，这个马球中心的马匹、葡萄酒和家具在一家拍卖网站上挂牌出售。 6park.comThe polo center’s horses, wines and furniture were listed on an auction website in 2021. 6park.com
奎林现在是Contrarian Alpha Management的首席投资官，他不愿透露自己做空中国开发商最终赚了多少钱。他说，2017年的飙升后做空该类股的人，如果没有在股价上涨时被轧空，可以获得100%的回报。 6park.comQuillen, now chief investment officer at Contrarian Alpha Management, won’t say how much he eventually made on his bets against Chinese developers. He said anyone shorting the stock after the 2017 spike who didn’t get squeezed out when the stock rose would have notched a 100% return. 6park.com
他说，他觉得自己得到了证明，但遗憾的是他的赌注没有下得更大。 6park.comHe said he felt vindicated, but regretted his bet wasn’t bigger.
请点这里投票，“赞”助支持！