Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel for Hong Kong?


在拟议的监管改革消息公布之后，本周迄今香港股市上涨了6%，创下今年以来的最佳表现。但仅凭这个好消息很可能不足以扭转香港IPO市场的颓势。


香港的IPO融资规模已跌至十多年来最低水平。

香港股市曾是全球顶级股票发行融资场所。然而，时过境迁，根据Dealogic的数据，在2019年新股发行募资额还是全球排名第一的香港股市，到了2023年甚至连前五都没挤进去。 6park.com
Hong Kong’s stock market used to be the world’s top equity fundraising venue. Not anymore: In the number one spot as recently as 2019, it didn’t even break the top five in 2023 according to Dealogic. 6park.com
    
但在拟议的监管改革消息公布之后，本周迄今香港股市上涨了6%，创下今年以来的最佳表现。特别是中国证券监管机构的言论暗示，可能会有更多中国大型企业获准在香港上市。 6park.com
But the market is up 6% this week, its best performance this year, in the wake of proposed regulatory changes. In particular, comments from China’s security regulator suggesting that more big Chinese companies may be greenlighted to list in Hong Kong. 6park.com
   
这是个好消息，但很可能不足以扭转香港IPO市场的颓势。陷入困境的香港银行业能否持久复苏，仍有待投资者对中国股市的整体态度发生重大转变。 6park.com
That would be welcome news—but it is probably not enough to save the patient. A durable recovery for Hong Kong’s embattled banking sector still awaits a sea change in investors’ attitude toward Chinese stocks more broadly. 6park.com
  
上周，中国证券监管机构宣布了五项专门支持香港金融市场的措施。其中包括进一步丰富沪深港通交易品种在内的一些举措将促进南向资金流入，即使它们不足以提振整个市场。 6park.com
Last week, Chinese securities regulators announced five measures specifically to support Hong Kong’s financial markets. Some, such as expanding the universe of instruments that mainland Chinese investors can buy through a trading link with Hong Kong called Stock Connect, would boost inflows from the north, even if they are not enough to lift the whole market.



然而，尤其令香港处境艰难的银行业人士感到欣慰的是，中国将支持更多内地行业龙头企业赴香港上市。目前尚不清楚北京方面将采取哪些具体措施来实现这一目标，而且一些最大型中国公司已在香港上市。但市场还是为这一消息欢呼雀跃：本周的反弹推动基准恒生指数升至今年以来最高水平。 6park.com
What is particularly music to the ears of the city’s suffering bankers, however, is that China will support more “leading companies” to go public in Hong Kong. It is unclear what concrete steps Beijing will take to make this happen—and some of the largest Chinese companies are already listed in Hong Kong. But the market cheered the news anyway: This week’s rally brought the benchmark Hang Seng Index to its highest level this year.  6park.com
   
上述政策扶持可以说是及时雨。根据Dealogic的数据，香港的IPO融资规模已跌至十多年来最低水平，今年迄今的融资额还不到10亿美元，目前在全球交易所中排名第八。相比之下，香港IPO市场2020年的融资规模高达520亿美元。 6park.com
That help is very much needed. Initial public offerings in the city have fallen to levels not seen for more than a decade—less than $1 billion so far in 2024—placing it eighth among global exchanges according to Dealogic. That compares with $52 billion for the whole of 2020. 6park.com
   
香港交易所(Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing)周三公布，第一季度净利润同比下降13%。除了新股上市数量匮乏外，交易量也不尽如人意。第一季度香港交易所的日均成交额同比下降22%。 6park.com
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, the operator of the city’s stock exchange, on Wednesday reported a 13% year-over-year drop in net profit for the March quarter. Apart from a dearth of new listings, trading volume has also been lackluster. Average daily turnover on the stock exchange last quarter fell 22% from a year earlier. 6park.com
    
近期其他一些监管调整也会有所帮助。自去年以来，中国加强了对国内股市IPO的审查。近年来，上海和深圳一直是与香港争夺新股上市交易的强劲对手。但随着在中国内地上市变得越来越难，可能会有更多公司重新考虑赴香港上市。 6park.com
Some other recent regulatory tweaks could also help. China has stepped up scrutiny of IPOs in its domestic stock markets since last year. Shanghai and Shenzhen have been strong competitors to Hong Kong for new listings in recent years. But more companies may reconsider Hong Kong as it becomes harder to go public in mainland China. 6park.com
   
不过，中概股人气低迷仍是许多公司尚未上市的主要原因。根据FactSet的数据，恒生指数目前的预期市盈率为8.8倍，而10年平均市盈率为12.4倍。这令香港对那些寻求融资的公司来说很难有吸引力。例如，中国电商巨头阿里巴巴(Alibaba)已放弃云计算和物流部门的上市计划，部分原因就是市场环境不利。 6park.com
Still, weak sentiment toward any stocks related to China is still the key reason companies haven’t been going public. The Hang Seng is trading at 8.8 times forward earnings, compared with its ten-year average of 12.4 times, according to FactSet. That makes Hong Kong a tough sell for companies looking to raise capital. Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, for example, has abandoned its plan to list its cloud and logistics units, partly due to the market environment. 6park.com
  
而一些最近成功在香港上市的公司表现不佳。茶饮公司茶百道(Sichuan Baicha Baidao)的新股发行成为今年以来香港规模最大的一桩IPO，但自周二上市以来，该公司市值已缩水三分之一。 6park.com
And some recent companies that did manage to list in Hong Kong have been doing poorly. Bubble tea maker Sichuan Baicha Baidao—the biggest IPO there in 2024—has already lost a third of its value since it went public on Tuesday. 6park.com
  
中国经济放缓、地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及中国对科技和房地产等行业的整顿，都是导致当前中国股市和香港股市萎靡不振的原因。 6park.com
A slowing Chinese economy, intensifying geopolitical tensions and China’s crackdown on industries like technology and real estate have all contributed to the current malaise in Chinese stocks and in Hong Kong. 6park.com
   
为主要的中国企业在香港上市铺平道路会有所助益。但仅靠对监管规则修修补补还不足以重振香港市场。 6park.com
Smoothing the path for key Chinese firms to list there will help. But tinkering with regulatory rules won’t be nearly enough to revive Hong Kong’s markets on its own.