Netflix Needs to Put On Another Big Subscriber Show


这家流媒体巨头去年开始打击密码共享，投资者对该公司今年再现订户大幅增长寄予厚望。


Netflix的“The Gentlemen”剧照。

但愿Netflix第一次避开了一些蹭看的人。 6park.com
Hopefully, Netflix missed some freeloaders the first time around.  6park.com
   
这家流媒体巨头从去年年中开始打击密码共享。要说这一努力是成功的，未免有些保守了。2023年下半年，Netflix净新增付费订户近2,200万，创历年同期最高纪录，是2022年下半年新增订户数量的两倍多。该公司认为这主要得益于付费共享“干预”，并表示未来还会有更多这类干预。付费共享“干预”提示订户与非同一住户的其他人共享密码要额外付费，或者非同住者需要注册自己的帐户。Netflix联席首席执行官Greg Peters在今年1月的公司第四财季业绩电话会议上表示：“2024年我们将继续向新用户群实施‘干预’。” 6park.com
The streaming giant began cracking down on password sharing in the middle of last year. To call the effort successful would be an understatement. Netflix added nearly 22 million net new paid subscribers in the second half of 2023—a record for that period and more than double what it added in the second half of 2022. The company cited paid-sharing “interventions”—prompts for subscribers sharing their passwords with others outside their households to pay extra or get them their own account—as a big driver of that growth, and suggested there was more to come. “We’re going to continue to deliver [interventions] to new cohorts in 2024,” Netflix co-Chief Executive Greg Peters said on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call in January.  6park.com
  6park.com
在Netflix定于下周四发布第一财季报告前，到底会增加多少订户是一个关键问题。Netflix自身给出的预期范围很广，仅表示预计第一财季新增订户数量将高于去年第一财季的180万，但低于第四财季的1,310万。根据Visible Alpha的数据，官方的平均预期似乎并不高，分析师预计Netflix第一财季和第二财季的净新增订户数量均为略高于400万。 6park.com
Just how much more is a key question heading into the company’s first-quarter report, slated for next Thursday. Netflix itself gave a wide range, saying only that it expects first-quarter subscriber additions to come in above the 1.8 million it reported in last year’s first quarter but below the 13.1 million added in the fourth quarter. Official consensus estimates are seemingly modest, with analysts expecting a little over 4 million net new subscribers in both the first and second quarter, according to Visible Alpha. 



但非官方预期可能远高于此。在周一的一份报告中，花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师Jason Bazinet援引与投资者的谈话暗示，Netflix第一财季新增订户有望达到800万。同一天，摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)分析师Doug Anmuth将他自己对Netflix新增订户的预期从450万提高到600万，并称，“不过我们认识到投资者的预期可能更倾向于700万至800万。” 6park.com
But less-official expectations may be well above that. In a report Monday, Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet cited “conversations with investors” suggesting an expectation for 8 million subscriber additions in the first quarter. On the same day, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth boosted his own subscriber target from 4.5 million to 6 million, adding “though we recognize investor expectations are likely more toward 7M-8M.”  6park.com
  
人们当然寄予厚望。Netflix股价一路高歌猛进，在过去六个月里飙升了近66%，是纳斯达克指数和标普500指数同期涨幅的三倍多。这主要归功于该公司在过去两份财报中公布的强劲订户增长。这轮上涨也使该股自2021年底以来首次回到600美元关口上方，当时该股在新冠疫情引发的长达18个月的上涨后达到顶峰。 6park.com
Expectations are certainly high. Netflix shares have been on a tear, surging nearly 66% over the past six months, which is more than triple the performance of both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 in that time. That is mostly thanks to the strong subscriber growth the company has delivered in its past two earnings reports. The run-up has also put the stock back above the $600 mark for the first time since late 2021, when the shares peaked following an 18-month, pandemic-induced rally.    6park.com
  
两年前，Netflix首次对其付费共享机会进行了评估，当时该公司订户数量出现有史以来的首次下降，令投资者感到震惊，该公司还首次披露有超过1亿家庭在使用他人付费账号观看Netflix的内容。难度最低的目标群体可能已经触及，Evercore ISI的Mark Mahaney估计，大约80%共享账号的美国用户已收到了干预通知。 6park.com
Netflix first sized up its paid-sharing opportunity two years ago, when it shocked investors with its first-ever drop in subscribers and disclosed—for the first time—that more than 100 million households were viewing its service using accounts paid for by others. The easiest targets may have already been hit; Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI estimates that about 80% of U.S. users sharing an account have already received an intervention notice.  6park.com
   
但Mahaney上个月对Netflix用户的调查发现，日本等市场的付费共享干预率要低得多，还有一些“边缘案例”，比如那些只在移动设备上观看Netflix的用户。摩根大通的Anmuth估计，Netflix今年可以将3,600万账号借用者转化为付费用户。他写道：“虽然最容易触及的果实已在2023年被摘取，但我们相信，随着Netflix加强筛查特定使用场景和账号借用群体，它仍大有机会在付费共享方面挖掘收益。” 6park.com
But Mahaney’s survey of Netflix users last month found the rate of paid-sharing interventions has been much lower in markets like Japan, as well as “edge cases,” such as those who only view Netflix on mobile devices. Anmuth of JPMorgan estimates the company can convert 36 million borrowers this year. “While the lowest hanging fruit was captured in 2023, we believe Netflix still has a meaningful paid sharing monetization opportunity as it tightens filters across specific use cases and borrower cohorts,” he wrote.  6park.com
   
那些最近将股价炒至接近历史最高水平的人最好希望这些预测是正确的。根据FactSet的数据，令人失望的订户数字往往会严重影响到Netflix股价；过去四次该公司的付费用户净增数量低于华尔街目标时，股价平均重挫了近18%。在过去一年里，Netflix一直刻意努力让投资者关注收入增长，而不是订户增长。然而这番表演还没有得到太多欣赏。 6park.com
Those who have bid the stock to near-record levels lately better hope those forecasts are right. Netflix shares tend to react badly to disappointing subscriber numbers; the stock has crashed by an average of nearly 18% on the past four occasions that the company’s net paid additions fell short of Wall Street’s targets, according to FactSet. Netflix has made a pointed effort over the past year to get investors to focus on revenue growth over subscriber growth. But that is one show that hasn’t caught on just yet.