Elon Musk and Jamie Dimon’s AI Predictions and What They Mean for the Future of Humanity


与其他一众商界高管一样，科技大鳄马斯克与摩根大通CEO戴蒙都在本周的讲话中对AI带来巨大变革的潜力作出大胆预测。


马斯克和戴蒙均表示，人工智能将给社会带来变革。

马斯克(Elon Musk)和戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)说，人工智能(AI)会比人类更聪明，将给社会带来变革。 6park.com
Elon Musk and Jamie Dimon say artificial intelligence will be smarter than humans and transform society.  6park.com
   
现在的问题是，这位全球数一数二的富豪与这位美国第一大银行掌门人的预言是会实现，还是言过其实。 6park.com
The question now is whether the prognostications of one of the world’s richest people and the head of the nation’s largest bank will come to fruition, or turn out to be overstated.  6park.com
   
与其他一众商界高管一样，马斯克和戴蒙都在本周的讲话中对AI带来巨大变革的潜力作出大胆预测。 6park.com
In remarks this week, both Musk and Dimon joined a chorus of business executives making bold predictions about AI’s potential for dramatic change.  6park.com
   
马斯克周一在与挪威央行投资管理机构(Norges Bank Investment Management)首席执行官Nicolai Tangen对谈时说：“我猜测，我们很可能在明年年底前后就会拥有比任何人类都聪明的AI技术。”该机构是挪威规模1.6万亿美元的主权基金，也是特斯拉(Tesla)最大的投资者之一。这次交谈在马斯克的社交媒体平台X上播出。 6park.com
“My guess is that we’ll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year,” Musk said in an interview Monday with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign fund and one of the largest investors in Tesla. The interview was broadcast on Musk’s social-media platform X.  6park.com
   
马斯克说，AI是他见过的发展最快的技术。他预测，AI很可能在五年内超过人类的集体智慧。这位特斯拉首席执行官也经营着自己的AI公司。 6park.com
Musk, who is chief executive of Tesla and also runs his own AI company, said AI was the fastest-advancing technology he’s ever seen. He predicted it will probably surpass the collective intelligence of humans in five years.  6park.com
  
摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席执行官戴蒙周一向投资者表示，AI的变革性可能不亚于过去几百年来的一些重大技术发明。 6park.com
Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, told investors Monday that AI could be as transformative as some of the major technological inventions over the past several hundred years.  6park.com
   
“想想印刷机、蒸汽机、电力、计算机和互联网等等，”戴蒙在周一致股东的年度信中写道。戴蒙每年的致股东信都备受期待，在金融服务业被广泛阅读。他已表示，AI可能会导致未来几代人每周只工作三天半。 6park.com
“Think the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, computing and the Internet, among others,” Dimon wrote in his annual letter to shareholders Monday. Dimon’s letter to shareholders is highly anticipated every year and read widely in the financial-service industry. He has said AI might lead future generations to only work 3½ days a week.  6park.com
   
在致股东的信中，AI是戴蒙强调的摩根大通面临的第一个问题。 6park.com
In his letter to shareholders, AI was the first issue facing JPMorgan that Dimon highlighted in his letter. 

一场人才争夺战


谷歌CEO皮采今年4月在斯坦福大学商学院的一次活动上。

为打造下一个大事件而展开的AI竞赛在硅谷引发了一场人才争夺战。科技公司以惊人的速度向AI领域投入资金，投资者和分析师越发相信这种繁荣是可持续的。这项技术也极大提振了许多希望从中赚钱的科技和芯片公司的股票表现。 6park.com
The AI race to build the next big thing has sparked a talent war in Silicon Valley. Tech companies have poured cash into AI at a breakneck pace, with investors and analysts increasingly believing the boom is sustainable. And the technology has supercharged the stock performances of many tech and chip companies aiming to cash in on it.  6park.com
   
谷歌(Google)首席执行官皮采(Sundar Pichai)表示，AI的影响可能比火或电的发明更加深远。风投机构Khosla Ventures的创始人Vinod Khosla去年声称，10年内，AI将承担“当前存在的80%的工作”。 6park.com
Google Chief Executive Sundar Pichai has said AI could be more profound than the invention of fire or electricity. Vinod Khosla, founder of venture-capital firm Khosla Ventures, declared last year that within 10 years, AI will take on “80% of 80% of the jobs that exist today.”  6park.com
    
“对于那些适应这些技术的国家来说，社会工作的需求将在25年内消失，”Khosla在接受《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)采访时说。 6park.com
“The need to work in society will disappear within 25 years for those countries that adapt these technologies,” Khosla said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. 6park.com
   
不过，AI技术也引发了对人类未来的严峻警告。本周早些时候，日本最大的电信公司和最大的报纸在一份宣言中警告说，除非对AI加以约束，否则“在最坏情况下，民主和社会秩序可能会崩溃，并导致战争。” 6park.com
And yet, the technology has also led to stark warnings about the future of humanity. Earlier this week, Japan’s largest telecommunications company and the country’s biggest newspaper cautioned in a manifesto that unless AI is restrained, “in the worst-case scenario, democracy and social order could collapse, resulting in wars.” 6park.com
   
他们呼吁日本议员通过立法来约束AI，并提到了对美国公司在开发的AI程序日益加剧的担忧。 6park.com
They called on Japanese lawmakers to pass legislation to restrain AI, pointing to rising concern about the AI programs U.S.-based companies have been developing. 6park.com
   
在美国，拜登(Biden)政府去年动用紧急联邦权力，强制大型AI公司在开发对国家安全构成严重威胁的系统时须通知政府。 6park.com
In the U.S., the Biden administration last year invoked emergency federal powers to compel major AI companies to notify the government when developing systems that pose a serious risk to national security.

夸大其词？


认知科学家Gary Marcus对马斯克关于人工智能将很快超越人类治理的想法表示怀疑。

一些专家仍认为，关于AI变革力量的预测被夸大了。 6park.com
Still, some experts say predictions of AI’s transformative powers have been overblown. 6park.com
   
Gary Marcus是一位认知科学家，曾在2016年将一家AI初创公司卖给优步(Uber)。他说，生成式AI有朝一日或许会达到能改变社会的水平。但他说，要达到互联网甚至智能手机带来的那种变革水平，还须有巨大的改进。 6park.com
Gary Marcus, a cognitive scientist who sold an AI startup to Uber in 2016, said generative AI may one day approach a level where it can transform society. But there has to be vast improvements to approach the level of change produced by the internet or even smartphones, he said.  6park.com
   
“随着我们取得新的发现，并构建出比现在好很多的AI，最终AI有可能带来变革、造福人类，”Marcus接受采访时说。 6park.com
“It’s possible as we make new discoveries and build better AI, much better than we have right now, that eventually AI could be transformative for the good,” Marcus said in an interview.  6park.com
   
Marcus说，目前的生成式AI程序错误太多，不可靠，对世界的了解也很肤浅。 6park.com
Generative AI programs currently make too many mistakes, are unreliable and have a superficial understanding of the world, Marcus said.  6park.com
   
他说，短期来看，AI不太可能像马斯克预测的那样在明年年底接近人类智慧。他说，在未来五年超越所有人类智慧也很难。 6park.com
In the short term, he said it is implausible that AI will approach human intelligence by the end of next year, like Musk predicted. Surpassing all of human intelligence in the next five years is also far-fetched, he said.  6park.com
   
“在理解物理和心理世界方面，有许多基础问题是这些机器尚未解决的，”Marcus说。 6park.com
“There are many foundational problems in understanding the physical and psychological world that these machines have not yet solved,” Marcus said.  6park.com
   
Marcus提出与马斯克打赌，用100万美元赌后者关于AI明年将比人类更聪明的预言是错误的。马斯克的代表未回应就这次对赌置评的请求。 6park.com
Marcus offered to wager $1 million with Musk that his prediction of AI becoming smarter than a human by next year turns out to be wrong. A representative for Musk didn’t respond to a request for a comment about the wager.  6park.com
   
半导体初创公司Ingk的首席执行官Damion Hankejh也对马斯克的预测表示怀疑。作为Marcus赌约的一部分，Hankejh提出要给赌注再加码900万美元。 6park.com
Damion Hankejh, chief executive of Ingk, a startup semiconductor company, also has doubts about Musk’s prediction. He has offered to put up an additional $9 million as part of Marcus’s wager. 6park.com
     
Hankejh说，他看好AI的未来，认为这将是下一个科技复兴。但他认为，目前的AI系统不会取得足以超越人类智慧的进步。 6park.com
Hankejh says he is bullish on the future of AI, saying it will be the next tech renaissance. But he doesn’t think current AI systems will advance enough to surpass human intelligence. 6park.com
   
“这永远不会发生，”Hankejh说。“数字数学机器不是大脑。” 6park.com
“It’s never going to happen,” Hankejh said. “Digital math machines aren’t brains.”

“炒作甚嚣尘上”


Arm首席执行官Rene Haas在2023年《华尔街日报》的一次活动上。

“现在围绕AI的炒作甚嚣尘上，”BetterAI联合创始人兼首席执行官Angel Vossough说。该公司正在开发一款AI葡萄酒推荐工具。 6park.com
“There’s a lot of hype in AI right now,” says Angel Vossough, the co-founder and chief executive of BetterAI, which is working on an AI wine-recommendation tool.  6park.com
    
她说，AI系统善于分析大型数据集，可以作出预测或加快生产率。但她说，这些系统远没有人类那么聪明，人类的智力很大一部分在于情商。 6park.com
She says AI systems are good at analyzing large data sets, and can make predictions or speed up productivity. But they are nowhere near being as intelligent as humans, she said, as a big part of human intelligence is emotional intelligence.  6park.com
   
“需要以一种实际感受很真实且有意义的方式连接、理解和回应人类的情感，”她说。“我认为我们还远未达到这种程度。” 6park.com
“It needs to connect, understand and respond to human emotions in a way that actually feels authentic and meaningful,” she said. “I don’t think we’re anywhere close.” 6park.com
   
当前AI热潮面临的另一个问题是对电力等资源带来的压力。芯片设计公司Arm正在出资研究如何提高AI应用的能效。 6park.com
Another issue with the AI boom: It is straining resources like electricity. Chip-design company Arm is funding efforts studying how to make AI applications more energy efficient.  6park.com
   
Arm首席执行官Rene Haas周二表示，到这个十年末，AI数据中心的耗电量可能达到美国电力需求的20%至25%，目前这一比例约为4%或更低。 6park.com
Rene Haas, chief executive of Arm, said Tuesday that AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements by the end of the decade, up from about 4% or less today. 6park.com
   
戴蒙说，摩根大通早在十多年前就开始首次尝试AI和机器学习技术，目前雇用了2,000多名这方面的专家。 6park.com
Dimon said JPMorgan now employs more than 2,000 AI and machine-learning experts after first experimenting with the technology more than a decade ago.  6park.com
   
他说，他预见在AI助力下整个摩根大通的业务工作流程将迎来新的构想。 6park.com
He said he envisions AI will help reimagine business workflows throughout the bank. 6park.com
   
戴蒙在致股东信中说：“虽然我们不知道AI对我们业务的全部影响或确切来说将以何种速度影响我们的业务，也不知道它将如何影响整个社会，但我们完全相信这种影响将是非同寻常的。” 6park.com
“While we do not know the full effect or the precise rate at which AI will change our business—or how it will affect society at large—we are completely convinced the consequences will be extraordinary,” Dimon said in his letter to shareholders.