A safe, profitable bet on the green transition


鉴于增加天然气管道输送或存储能力的难度之大，中游能源公司尤其具有吸引力。


Kinder Morgan工厂的储罐。

从事天然气储存和运输业务的公司听起来并不具有“成长性”或令人兴奋，但这些公司的竞争护城河在不断加深，市场需求也在日益增长。 6park.com
Companies in the business of storing and transporting natural gas don’t sound “growth-y" or exciting, but they are businesses with a deepening competitive moat and growing need. 6park.com
 
根据美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration, 简称EIA)的数据，过去十年间，美国的干天然气产量增长57%，包括用于出口部分在内的需求量增长45%。Williams Companies援引EIA的数据称，在此期间，美国各州之间的天然气管道输送能力仅增长25%。与此同时，天然气储存能力几乎没有变化。 6park.com
Over the last decade, U.S. dry natural gas production has grown 57% and demand (including for exports) has risen 45%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Over that period, interstate pipeline capacity for natural gas has expanded just 25%, according to Williams Companies, citing data from EIA. Meanwhile, natural-gas storage capacity has barely changed. 6park.com
   
这一瓶颈使所谓的中游公司在谈判新合同时可以收取更高的费用。在今年早些时候的投资者日，Kinder Morgan表示，该公司前五大管道的平均利用率已从2016年的73%升至2023年的87%。该公司称，输气能力的不足正帮助该公司签订期限更长、费率更高的合同。 6park.com
The bottleneck is allowing so-called midstream companies to charge higher fees when they negotiate new contracts. In its investor day earlier this year, Kinder Morgan said the average utilization rate rose to 87% in 2023 from 73% in 2016 for five of its largest pipelines. The company said the scarcity factor is helping it sign longer contracts with increased rates. 6park.com
    
Oneok在最新的财报电话会议上表示，由于长期储存服务的盈利增加，以及通过协商签订的基于费用的合同费率提高，该公司天然气管道业务2023年的表现“大幅超出”财务业绩预期。虽然天然气价格目前处于低谷，不到每百万英热单位2美元，但管道业务的优势在于不太依赖于大宗商品价格，而且有基于费用的长期合同作为依托。 6park.com
In its latest earnings call, Oneok said its natural-gas pipelines segment “significantly exceeded" its 2023 financial guidance due to higher earnings from its long-term storage services and higher rates from negotiated fee-based contracts. While natural-gas prices are currently in the gutter—at less than $2 per million British thermal units—the advantage of pipelines is that they don’t depend much on commodity prices—they are underpinned by long-term, fee-based contracts. 6park.com
   
据EIA预测，从现在到2050年，美国的天然气产量和液化天然气出口量可能会持续增长。但考虑到建设管道所面临的许可和政治障碍，管道的稀缺价值似乎可能持续存在。此外，花旗投资研究(Citi Research)的股票分析师Spiro Dounis表示，与油气生产商一样，中游公司自身在过去几年中也从资本支出模式转向了资本回报模式。过去三年，标普500指数成分股一组中游公司的平均年股息回报达到市值的5.3%左右，而该指数中一组公用事业公司的股息回报仅为市值的3.1%。 6park.com
The EIA forecasts U.S. natural-gas production and liquefied natural-gas exports will likely grow through 2050. But the pipelines’ scarcity value seems likely to persist given the permitting and political roadblocks to getting them built. Moreover, like oil and gas producers, midstream companies themselves switched from capital spending mode to capital returns mode over the past few years, according to Spiro Dounis, equity analyst at Citi Research. Over the past three years, a basket of midstream companies in the S&P 500 on average returned about 5.3% of their market value in annual dividends compared with 3.1% for a group of utilities in the S&P 500. 6park.com
  
而在这条增长道路上天然气价格可能将大幅波动，这应会使中游公司的存储资产变得越发有价值。美国能源系统当前的转变方式也许会使这些波动加剧。首先，随着燃煤发电产能退出，电网在短缺时期转向煤电的能力正在减弱。其次，在液化天然气出口能力不断增长之际，美国天然气价格与国际需求间的关联正越来越紧密。 6park.com
And the path to growth will likely be volatile for natural-gas prices—something that should make midstream companies’ storage assets even more valuable. The U.S. energy system is shifting in ways that can make those swings even bigger. For one, the ability of the electric grid to switch to coal in times of shortage is diminishing as coal-fired power capacity shuts down. Secondly, U.S. natural-gas prices are getting more linked to international demand as LNG export capacity keeps growing.



能源研究公司Wood Mackenzie的研究主管Eugene Kim认为，天然气储存能力“严重匮乏”。Kim指出，压裂热潮期间，储存能力在2005年至2015年间增长了20%左右，但在2015年之后，储存能力并未扩张，同时天然气产量本身又增长了40%。拥有天然气储存能力的公司包括Kinder Morgan、Williams、DT Midstream和TC Energy。 6park.com
Natural-gas storage is “severely lacking," according to Eugene Kim, research director at energy research firm Wood Mackenzie. Storage capacity grew about 20% between 2005 and 2015, during the fracking boom, but hasn’t expanded at all post-2015, when natural-gas production itself grew another 40%, Kim noted. Companies that own natural-gas storage capacity include Kinder Morgan, Williams, DT Midstream and TC Energy. 6park.com
   
标普500指数中一组中游公司股票今年以来累计上涨约14%，跑赢该大盘指数。即便如此，这些股票的估值看起来仍然合理，它们的企业价值与未来12个月利息﹑税项﹑折旧﹑摊销前收益之比约为10倍，比标普500指数的相应估值倍数低28%。而在历史上，中游公司的估值相较于标普500指数曾有5.5%的折让，折让幅度要小得多。 6park.com
A basket of midstream companies in the S&P 500 has gained about 14% year to date, outpacing the broader index. Even so, their valuation looks reasonable, with enterprise value at about 10 times forward-12-month earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, 28% lower than the overall index. Historically, midstream companies had traded at a more modest 5.5% discount to the S&P 500. 6park.com
    
如果想要搭上能源转型的顺风车，投资于天然气基础设施板块可能是一种成本相对较低且附带丰厚股息的方式。 6park.com
Investing in natural-gas infrastructure could be a relatively cheap, dividend-rich way to hitch your wagon to the energy transition.