Oil Is Hitting Its Highest Level in Months—Just in Time for Summer Driving Season


在俄罗斯的无人机袭击、中东的动荡局势以及消费者的强劲需求共同影响下，原油价格创下数月新高，为今夏汽油价格可能飙升埋下伏笔。


美国汽车协会测算的全国平均汽油价格今年迄今上涨了15%，达到每加仑3.57美元。

在俄罗斯的无人机袭击、中东的动荡局势以及消费者的强劲需求共同影响下，原油价格创下数月新高，为今夏汽油价格可能飙升埋下伏笔。 6park.com
Drone attacks in Russia, unrest in the Middle East and strong consumer demand have propelled oil prices to their highest level in months, setting the stage for what could be a summer surge in gas prices. 6park.com
   
本周原油价格涨势加快，此前以色列对一栋伊朗外交大楼的袭击加剧了人们对爆发更大范围地区战争的担忧。由于欧佩克(OPEC)及其盟国减产，全球市场原油供应相对不足，这也支撑了油价。 6park.com
The rally in crude picked up speed this week after an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic building fanned worries of a broader regional war. Undergirding prices: a relative lack of crude in global markets thanks to production cuts from OPEC and its allies. 6park.com
   
作为基准的布伦特原油期货价格今年迄今攀升了18%，自去年10月以来首次超过每桶90美元。这也影响到汽油价格，美国汽车协会(AAA)测算的全国平均汽油价格今年迄今上涨了15%，达到每加仑3.57美元。 6park.com
Brent crude futures, the benchmark, have climbed 18% in 2024 to exceed $90 a barrel for the first time since October. That is feeding into gasoline, with average national prices measured by AAA up 15% this year at $3.57 a gallon. 6park.com
   
渣打(Standard Chartered)大宗商品研究主管Paul Horsnell说，市场总体上才刚刚意识到供应紧张将加剧到什么程度。 6park.com
“The market in general is only just waking up to just how…tight supplies will increasingly be,” said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered. 6park.com
    
Horsnell一直是为数不多的几位看涨石油的分析师之一，他预测本季度布伦特油价将升至每桶94美元。在华尔街许多人预计油价将横盘震荡时，油价却开始上涨，这表明油价可能会继续走高，尤其是如果投资者踊跃入市交易的话。 6park.com
Horsnell has been one of the few bullish oil analysts, forecasting that Brent will rise to $94 a barrel this quarter. The fact that prices started rising when many on Wall Street expected them to go sideways suggests they could keep heading higher—especially if investors crowd into the trade. 6park.com
   
在夏季驾驶旺季到来之前，汽油供应可能面临紧要关头。美国当前汽油库存比一年中这个时段的近期平均水平低3%，接近过去五年里这一时期的最低水平。 6park.com
Gasoline supplies are a possible pinch point ahead of the busy summer driving season. Inventories in the U.S. are 3% below the recent average for this time of year, close to the lowest for this time of year in the past five years.  6park.com
    
汽油价格飙升有可能避免。相对于原油和柴油而言，汽油价格已经上涨，从而提高了炼油厂增产的利润率。 6park.com
There is a possibility that a surge in gas prices is avoided. Gas prices have jumped relative to crude and diesel, enhancing profit margins for refiners to crank up output. 6park.com
    
咨询公司Rystad Energy的分析师Janiv Shah说，到夏季时，美国炼油厂的原油日加工量将比3月份高出约70万桶。这将有助于满足季节性汽油需求，但有可能推动原油价格进一步上涨。 6park.com
By the summer, U.S. refiners will churn through about 700,000 more barrels of crude each day than they were last month, said Janiv Shah, an analyst at consulting firm Rystad Energy—helping meet seasonal gasoline demand but potentially driving crude prices even higher. 6park.com
   
美国银行(Bank of America)分析师预计，今年夏天布伦特原油价格可能达到每桶95美元的峰值，并指出美国、欧洲和亚洲的汽油库存相对较低。 6park.com
Bank of America analysts figure Brent prices could peak at $95 a barrel this summer, pointing to relatively low gasoline stockpiles in the U.S., Europe and Asia. 6park.com
   
汽油价格上涨正值美国总统大选前夕。去年夏天，汽油价格最高时达到平均每加仑3.88美元，而取决于接下来几个月的情况，汽油价格可能会超过每加仑4美元。 6park.com
The rise in prices at the gasoline pump comes in the run-up to the presidential election. Prices topped out last summer at $3.88 a gallon on average and could tip over $4 depending on how the following months play out.  6park.com
   
原油价格上涨使美联储面临的问题更加复杂。美国CPI涨幅一直停留在3%左右，高于美联储的目标。燃料价格上涨的影响会渗透到其他商品和服务的价格。 6park.com
Higher crude prices complicate matters for the Federal Reserve. Consumer-price inflation in the U.S. has gotten stuck at about 3%, above the Fed’s target. More expensive fuel can trickle into prices for other goods and services. 6park.com
    
原油以及铜等其他原材料价格的上涨，在某种程度上反映出世界经济出人意料的强劲表现。尽管各国都在努力发展更清洁能源，但能源需求增速更快，由此造成的供应缺口要靠化石燃料来填补。 6park.com
Higher prices for crude and other raw materials, including copper, to some extent reflect surprising strength in the world economy. The growing appetite for energy has also outpaced efforts to move toward cleaner sources of power, leaving fossil fuels to fill the gap. 6park.com
   
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)大宗商品策略主管Martijn Rats说，航班售罄提升了对航空燃油的需求。船舶要是不想冒胡塞武装导弹袭击的危险在红海航行，就得从非洲南端绕行，这样会消耗更多燃料。今年1月，美国部分地区的寒冷天气压制了石油产量，而巴西和加拿大最近几个月的原油产量也不及预期。 6park.com
Sold-out flight schedules have lifted demand for jet fuel, said Martijn Rats, head of commodity strategy at Morgan Stanley. Ships are burning more fuel to sail around the southern tip of Africa instead of braving Houthi missiles in the Red Sea. Freezing weather curtailed oil output in parts of the U.S. in January, while Brazil and Canada haven’t pumped as much crude as expected in recent months. 6park.com
     
Northern Trace Capital首席投资官Trevor Woods说：“布伦特原油价格有可能达到每桶95美元或100美元吗？我认为可能。”这家总部位于俄亥俄州的对冲基金正通过买入原油期货和看涨期权来押注油价上涨。 6park.com
“Could Brent be $95 or $100? I think so,” said Trevor Woods, chief investment officer at Northern Trace Capital. The Ohio-based hedge fund is betting on higher oil prices by buying crude futures and call options. 6park.com
    
欧佩克及其以俄罗斯为首的盟国，即欧佩克+，自2022年秋季以来一直在削减产量。对交易商来说，一个未知数是，如果油价持续上涨，该卡特尔是否会在今年晚些时候提高产量。 6park.com
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies—collectively, OPEC+—have throttled production since the fall of 2022. An unknown for traders is whether the cartel will jack up output later in the year if prices keep rising. 6park.com
    
RCMA Capital首席执行官Doug King表示，柴油需求是市场的一个薄弱点。强势美元是他怀疑原油价格会不会继续攀升的另一个原因。 6park.com
One weak spot in the market is diesel demand, said RCMA Capital Chief Executive Doug King. The strong dollar is another reason why he doubts crude prices will keep climbing. 6park.com
    
即便如此，国际能源署(International Energy Agency)认为，今年全球石油日均消耗量将达到创纪录的1.03亿桶，而去年不到1.02亿桶，2022年不足1亿桶。 6park.com
Even so, the International Energy Agency thinks the world will guzzle a record 103 million barrels of oil each day this year—up from less than 102 million last year and under 100 million in 2022. 6park.com
   
乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油设施的打击是分析师提高油价预测的另一个理由。航运数据显示，袭击发生后，俄罗斯的巨量柴油出口下降，其他地方的炼油厂要购买更多原油来填补缺口。 6park.com
Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil-refining facilities are another reason analysts have raised price forecasts. Shipping data show Russia’s massive diesel exports have dropped following the attacks, requiring refiners elsewhere to buy more crude to fill the gap. 6park.com
    
其中一些原油将来自俄罗斯本国。但分析师称，物流方面的困难以及俄罗斯在欧佩克+框架下的承诺，可能意味着原油出口量的增加并不能完全抵消成品油出货量的下降。 6park.com
Some of that will come from Russia itself. But analysts say logistical difficulties, as well as Russia’s commitments under OPEC+, may mean higher crude exports don’t fully offset the drop in refined-fuel shipments. 6park.com
    
大宗商品数据机构Vortexa的首席经济学家David Wech说，美国制裁执法力度加强似乎也在抑制俄罗斯的出口。大量俄罗斯燃料正漂浮在海上，这意味着俄罗斯出口商可能难以找到买家。 6park.com
Tougher sanctions enforcement by the U.S. also appears to be curbing Russian exports, said David Wech, chief economist at commodities-data firm Vortexa. A large volume of Russian fuel is floating at sea, suggesting Russian exporters might be struggling to find buyers.