What You Need to Know About Gold’s Curious Rally


金价正屡创新高，一众华尔街分析师坦言这让他们措手不及。


与股票和债券等资产相比，较低的利率使黄金更具吸引力。

“悄然。”“隐秘。”“出人意料。” 金价正屡创新高，一众华尔街分析师坦言这让他们措手不及。 6park.com
“Quiet.” “Stealthy.” “Surprising.” Gold prices are hitting record highs, and Wall Street analysts say they have been caught off guard. 6park.com
   
每逢震荡发生之际、地缘政治风险上升之时，黄金总是被视为避风港。这一次，金价的上涨恰逢投资者对美国经济颇为乐观之际，这种乐观情绪已推动股票等风险较高的资产创下新高。就连比特币也已大涨，升破前高。 6park.com
The precious metal is traditionally seen as a haven in times of volatility and geopolitical risk. This time, its ascent is coinciding with investor optimism about the U.S. economy, which has sent riskier assets like stocks to new highs. Even bitcoin has surged past its previous record. 6park.com
    
摩根大通全球大宗商品研究部门的分析师上周四表示：“黄金大幅跃升至名义新高，走势之强令我们感到惊讶。” 6park.com
“Gold’s sharp jump to new nominal highs has surprised us in its intensity,” said analysts at J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research on Thursday. 6park.com
    
以下是分析师对当前走势的看法。 6park.com
Here’s what analysts think is going on.

新高

黄金期货价格在过去八个交易日中不断上涨，并在过去七个交易日中屡屡打破纪录。周一，三月交割的黄金期货价格收于创纪录的每盎司2,182.50美元，金价今年以来的涨幅由此达到5.8%。 6park.com
Gold futures have notched gains for the past eight trading sessions and broken records in the past seven. Futures for March delivery settled Monday at a record $2,182.50 a troy ounce, bringing gold’s gains this year to 5.8%. 6park.com
   
有些触发因素解释起来比其他因素更容易一些。 6park.com
Some triggers are easier to explain than others. 



最近这波涨势到来前，消费者信心发生下滑，且上月底公布的数据显示通胀松动，这导致对美联储今年降息的憧憬升温。黄金是一种非孳息资产，利率下降会让黄金相对于股票和债券等支付股息和利息的资产更具吸引力。 6park.com
The latest run-up came after a drop in consumer sentiment and moderate inflation data late last month raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. Lower rates make gold, which pays no income, more attractive relative to assets such as stocks and bonds that pay dividends and interest. 6park.com
    
但这波上涨的幅度和黄金在此之前的攀升需要更多解释。 6park.com
But the magnitude of the move and gold’s climb before that call for more explanation. 6park.com
    
黄金最大的敌人是实际收益率的上升；实际收益率指经通胀因素调整后的利率。然而，自2021年底以来，金价已累计上涨20%，尽管同期美联储抗通胀之战已使实际收益率从-1%左右飙升至约1.8%，并在美国引发了黄金ETF的抛售。 6park.com
Gold’s biggest enemy is a rise in real yields, which are interest rates adjusted for inflation. Yet gold has notched a 20% gain since the end of 2021. That is even as the Fed’s inflation fight has catapulted real yields to about 1.8% from around negative 1% since the end of 2021, prompting a selloff of gold exchange-traded funds in the U.S.



海外买盘

部分原因是人们感觉到在美国以外，经济和地缘政治风险都在增加。全球各国央行在2008年金融危机之后都纷纷开始购买黄金，而在2022年初俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，央行对黄金的购买加速。 6park.com
Part of the explanation is a sense of growing economic and geopolitical risks outside the U.S. Central banks around the world began buying gold after the 2008 financial crisis and accelerated their purchases after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.  6park.com
   
然后是2023年10月份，在哈马斯袭击以色列后，黄金跳涨5%。现在，金价已经比以哈冲突开始时的水平高出19%。 6park.com
Then in October, gold jumped 5% after Hamas attacked Israel. It is now 19% higher than when the conflict began. 6park.com
    
在过去两年里，各国央行囤积的黄金量已接近全球黄金矿业产量的30%。渣打银行(Standard Chartered)贵金属分析师Suki Cooper表示，去年各国央行的黄金购买量是美国黄金ETF投资者抛售量的四倍多。 6park.com
Bullion hoarding by central banks has approached 30% of global mining production over the past two years. Last year, those institutions snapped up more than four times the amount of gold that was ditched by ETF investors in the U.S., according to Suki Cooper, precious-metals analyst at Standard Chartered. 6park.com
    6park.com
据世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)称，在土耳其央行和中国央行的带动下，这波央行购买黄金的热潮至少持续到今年1月。 6park.com
The buying spree has continued at least through January of this year, led by central banks in Turkey and China, according to the World Gold Council.  6park.com
    
与此同时，英国皇家铸币厂(Royal Mint)表示，英国在2023年底进入经济衰退后，黄金购买量猛增。MKS PAMP金属策略师Nicky Shiels说，中国对黄金的需求也是“永无止境的”。中国的房地产市场遭受重创，基准股票指数在连续下跌三年后，在2024年1月又以6.3%的跌幅开局。 6park.com
At the same time, the Royal Mint said gold purchases jumped after the U.K. entered a recession in late 2023. Demand for gold in China has also been “insatiable,” said Nicky Shiels, metals strategist at MKS PAMP. The country’s real-estate market has been battered, and the benchmark stock index kicked off 2024 with a 6.3% drop in January, after falling for three years in a row. 6park.com
    
Shiels说，中国这里完全是恐慌性购买。 6park.com
“It’s complete fear buying,” Shiels said.  6park.com
    
MKS PAMP在其他地方也看到了强劲的黄金购买需求。在印度，投资者正试图通过黄金来对冲在全球增长最快的经济体之一印度出现的通货膨胀。 6park.com
Her firm is seeing robust demand elsewhere. In India, investors are seeking to hedge inflation in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. 

面临力竭

品浩(PIMCO)的大宗商品和实物资产主管Greg Sharenow是质疑黄金最近涨势能否持续的人士之一。他说，各国央行在黄金上涨过程中发挥了重要作用，一些央行有可能不再愿意以前所未有的高价购买更多黄金了。 6park.com
Greg Sharenow, head of commodities and real assets at Pimco, is among those who question whether gold’s latest rally can continue. Central banks have played a big role in its rise, and there is a risk that some will balk at buying more bullion at unprecedentedly high prices, he said. 6park.com
   
“央行是推动黄金上涨的力量。”他说，“但自从金价发生大的波动以来，现在很难判断这种推动力量能否继续保持强劲。” 6park.com
“They’re the tailwind,” he said, “But it’s hard to know that that tailwind remains as strong since prices have really moved.” 6park.com
   
道明证券(TD Securities)的数据显示，尽管系统性趋势跟踪交易者的期货买盘推动了金价的上涨，但他们的多头头寸目前也已接近上限。这使得他们不太可能推动金价进一步大幅上涨。 6park.com
Although futures buying by systematic trend-following traders has helped power gold’s rise, they are also now close to their maximum long positions, according to TD Securities. That makes it unlikely they will boost prices much higher. 6park.com
   
美国的普通投资者和机构投资者已经在抛售黄金，不过在利率仍然高企的情况下，抛售量要比通常情况下少。分析师说，一些人可能担心美国股市涨势过猛，因此将黄金作为一种对冲风险的工具继续持有。 6park.com
Everyday as well as institutional investors in the U.S. have been selling gold, though less than they ordinarily might with interest rates still high. Some might be worried that the stock market’s rally has gone too far and are hanging on to the metal as a hedge, analysts said. 

触发因素

金价上一次创出历史新高是在去年12月份，当时美国利率见顶的前景引发了所谓的“万物上涨”。 6park.com
Gold made its last record run in December, after the prospect that interest rates had peaked sparked the so-called everything rally.  6park.com
    6park.com
推动金价最近这轮涨势的也可能是类似的力量。华尔街的许多人认为金价的涨势还能继续，但需要有更明确的表明美联储确实会很快降息的信号。 6park.com
Similar forces could be at play with the latest upsurge. Many on Wall Street think the gains can continue—but there needs to be a clearer signal that the Fed will indeed cut rates soon. 6park.com
    
花旗集团(Citigroup)、摩根大通和道明证券都认为金价可能升至2,300美元。 6park.com
Citigroup, J.P. Morgan and TD Securities all have $2,300 price targets. 



Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates的执行合伙人Leigh Goehring正在买入金矿公司的股票，他认为鉴于这些公司的低估值，这些股票的表现将跑赢金价本身。VanEck Gold Miners ETF今年迄今累计下跌2.8%，同期标普500指数累计上涨7.3%。 6park.com
Leigh Goehring, managing partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, is buying shares of mining companies, which he thinks will outperform gold itself given their low valuations. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF is down 2.8% this year, while the S&P 500 is up 7.3%. 6park.com
   
Goehring说，西方投资者需要先对降息即将到来有更大的确定性，之后才能从卖出黄金改为买入黄金。他认为，这种确信随时可能到来。 6park.com
Goehring said that Western investors need more certainty that rate cuts are coming before switching from selling to buying gold. He thinks that conviction could come at any time. 6park.com
   
“谁知道什么时候会突然发生呢？”他说：“形势很可能很快就会发生转变。” 6park.com
“Who knows when it’s going to snap?” he said. “It could very well turn around very, very quickly.”