It Isn’t Just Big Tech Propelling Gains in the Stock Market Anymore


美国经济的强劲增长已开始促使投资者大举买入更多板块的股票，而不仅仅局限在少数几家推动股指刷新纪录高位的科技巨头。



美国经济的强劲增长已开始促使投资者大举买入更多板块的股票，而不仅仅局限在少数几家推动股指刷新纪录高位的科技巨头。 6park.com
Strong U.S. growth is prompting investors to scoop up a broader set of stocks, rather than just the handful of giant technology companies that drove indexes to record heights. 6park.com
    
随着今年苹果公司(Apple)和特斯拉(Tesla)等权重股下跌，更多种类的股票开始推动近期的涨势。赋予每只股票相同权重而非按市值加权的标普500指数上周创下历史新高。根据Bespoke Investment Group的研究，该指数近五分之一的股票在最近一个交易日触及52周新高，为2021年5月以来最高比例。 6park.com
With heavyweights including Apple and Tesla sinking this year, a larger group of companies has helped power recent gains. The equal-weighted S&P 500, which measures each company equally rather than by its market capitalization, rose to a record this past week. Almost one-fifth of the stocks in the index hit new 52-week highs on a recent day, the largest share since May 2021, according to research by Bespoke Investment Group. 6park.com
    
这种转变反映出华尔街的一种看法：美国经济已经挺过本轮加息周期最糟糕的阶段。这为各类资产可能出现的大幅上涨扫清了道路，其中也包括规模较小且风险较高的股票。标普500指数过去12个月累计上涨约33%，目前较上周四的创纪录收盘水平下跌不到一个百分点。 6park.com
The shift signals Wall Street’s embrace of the idea that the U.S. economy has weathered the worst of this cycle’s interest-rate increases. That clears the way for potentially large gains in all kinds of assets, including smaller and riskier stocks. The S&P 500 is up about 33% in the past 12 months, off less than a percentage point from its record close on Thursday. 6park.com
    
这对投资者也是好事一桩。此前，由于上涨行情全被大型科技股主导，加上AI概念热度不断，人们担心股市的利空因素被掩盖了，这容易导致股市发生逆转。但现在上涨的股票范围扩大，这种担忧也能得到缓解。 6park.com
That’s good news for investors. A broadening rally mitigates fears that big tech companies’ dominance—and investors’ enthusiasm for the prospects of artificial intelligence—concealed underlying weakness that left stocks vulnerable to a reversal.  6park.com
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路博迈(Neuberger Berman)首席投资官Joseph Amato说：“随着通胀回落，美联储不再与投资者对抗，对高风险资产来说是更好的长期投资的理由。” 6park.com
“With inflation coming down and the Fed no longer fighting you, it’s just a better long-term case for risky assets,” said Joseph Amato, chief investment officer of Neuberger Berman.



美国最新的消费者价格数据将在周二公布，甲骨文(Oracle)、Kohl's和Adobe等公司本周将发布财报。届时投资者将根据这些数据重新审视美股前景。 6park.com
Investors will get a fresh look at stocks’ prospects from the latest reading of the consumer-price index coming Tuesday, along with earnings reports due this week from companies such as Oracle, Kohl’s and Adobe.  6park.com
    
过去几年，借贷成本的上升和预期的经济放缓使美股上涨只集中在少数几只股票身上。2023年，大部分美国公司都难以提高利润。但身为“美股七雄”的英伟达(Nvidia)和微软(Microsoft)等科技巨头从现金储备中获得的收益超过了新冠疫情期间的再融资热潮所带来的偿债支出。 6park.com
Rising borrowing costs and an anticipated slowdown helped concentrate stock gains over the past couple of years. The bulk of U.S. companies struggled to improve their bottom lines in 2023. But behemoths such as Nvidia and Microsoft—members of the so-called Magnificent Seven—earned more on their war chests of cash than they spent paying to service debt issued during the pandemic refinancing spree. 6park.com
    
美国企业的利润料将继续受到强劲的生产力和财政支出的提振。去年12月，美联储官员预计美国经济今年经通胀调整后的增长率将达到1.4%。亚特兰大联储的一个模型显示，美国经济今年第一季度增长率将达到2.5%。美联储暗示，今年晚些时候利率可能下调。 6park.com
Corporate profits are expected to continue being supported by strong productivity and fiscal spending. In December, Federal Reserve officials projected the economy would grow at an inflation-adjusted rate of 1.4% this year. An Atlanta Fed model is tracking toward 2.5% for the first quarter. The Fed is signaling that interest rates will likely fall later this year. 6park.com
    
科技股2024年迄今为止仍有两位数的涨幅，而公用事业和房地产等对利率比较敏感的股票则基本持平。但与经济增长前景关系更大的工业股和金融服务股至少上涨了7%。 6park.com
Tech stocks are still up double-digit percentages in 2024, while rate-sensitive shares such as utilities and real estate are relatively unchanged. But industrial and financial-services shares, tied more to the outlook for growth, have advanced at least 7%.  

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与此同时，罗素2000小型股指数较去年10月份低点累计上涨27%，这些公司通常大部分收入来自美国本土。此前美联储开始加息时，投资者对借贷成本和增长放缓的担忧曾拖累小型股跌入熊市。 6park.com
At the same time, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies, which tend to get most of their revenue from inside the U.S., has climbed 27% off its October lows. Investors’ worries about borrowing costs and slowing growth had driven small-cap stocks into a bear market when the Fed began ratcheting up interest rates.  6park.com
    
小型股中涨幅最大的是投资者最青睐的一些股票。在AI投资热潮的带动下，芯片制造商Super Micro Computer累计涨幅达到301%，使该股脱离罗素2000指数，转入标普500指数。比特币买家MicroStrategy股价累计上涨126%，模因股Carvana上涨61%。 6park.com
Among small-caps, the biggest gainers are companies riding waves of investor fervor. Fueled by bets on artificial intelligence, chip maker Super Micro Computer has posted a 301% gain that lifted it out of the Russell 2000 and into the S&P 500. Bitcoin buyer MicroStrategy is up 126%, and meme stock Carvana has climbed 61%.  6park.com
    
更多板块加入上涨行情通常会让华尔街感到欢欣鼓舞，因为这意味着股市有更大的上涨空间。但一些投机性股票的大幅上涨会引起人们的警惕。 6park.com
Wall Street typically rejoices when a rally expands to include more parts of the market, considering it a sign that stocks have more room to run. But huge run-ups in speculative corners give some cause for caution. 6park.com
   
标普500指数成分股公司基于未来12月预期利润的市盈率为21倍，超过了约18倍的长期平均市盈率，接近新冠疫情后股市大涨时的24倍。 6park.com
Companies in the S&P 500 are currently trading at roughly 21 times their expected earnings over the next 12 months. That is ahead of the long-term average price/earnings ratio around 18, and approaching the 24 hit during stocks’ postpandemic rally. 6park.com
    
宏观经济咨询公司Stray Reflections的创始人Jawad Mian说，分析师的盈利预期也可能难以实现。根据FactSet慧甚的数据，华尔街预计标普500指数成分股公司今年盈利将增长11%，2025年将再增长14%左右。相比之下，当美国经济去年增长超过6%的时候，标普500指数成分股公司盈利仅增长了2%左右，而今年美国经济增速料将放慢。 6park.com
Analysts’ earnings forecasts could be difficult to meet as well, said Jawad Mian, founder of Stray Reflections, a macroeconomic advisory firm. Wall Street expects S&P 500 companies’ earnings to grow 11% this year and a further 14% or so in 2025, according to FactSet. When the economy grew more than 6% last year, S&P 500 companies’ earnings rose about 2%—and U.S. growth is expected to weaken this year.



“本轮牛市已是强弩之末，”Mian说。他预计，随着大型科技股带动的上涨势头减弱，小型股将跑赢大盘。 6park.com
“We are reaching the constraints of this bull market,” Mian said. He expects smaller companies to outperform the broader market as the Big-Tech-driven rally loses steam.  6park.com
   
通胀回升的可能性也让投资者担忧，特别是最近的CPI数据打破了几个月来令人鼓舞的价格压力缓解的数据趋势。如果通胀率不能向美联储的目标回落，而且经济增长保持强劲，那么利率可能在更长的时间内保持高位。 6park.com
The potential for a revival in inflation is also concerning investors, particularly after the most-recent CPI reading interrupted months of encouraging data showing price pressure fading. If inflation fails to fall toward the Fed’s target and growth stays strong, rates might remain higher for longer. 6park.com
    6park.com
迫在眉睫的再融资需求束缚了小型股的手脚。罗素2000指数成份股公司的杠杆率往往更高，也就是公司的债务与其手头现金或利润之比更高。如果剔除金融公司，罗素2000指数将近一半的成分股公司都有像银行贷款这样的浮动利率债务。相比之下，标普500指数的这个比例约为十分之一。 6park.com
One thing that has hamstrung smaller stocks is their impending need to refinance. Companies in the Russell 2000 tend to have higher leverage, their debt relative to cash on hand or earnings. And when excluding financial companies, nearly half of the index has floating-rate debt such as bank loans on its balance sheet. That compares to about one-tenth of the benchmark S&P 500. 6park.com
    
“每个人都以为通胀这头猛兽被制服了，”Neuberger Berman的Amato说。“除了资产负债表固若金汤的大盘股，大家都会受到利率上升的影响。” 6park.com
“Everyone thought we slayed the beast of inflation,” said Neuberger Berman’s Amato. “Outside of large-cap stocks with fortress balance sheets, higher rates will have an effect.” 6park.com
   
这也是Baron Capital的基金经理Randy Gwirtzman回避高杠杆公司的原因之一。他持仓最多的股票之一是DraftKings，他在去年第四季度增持了这只股票。 6park.com
That’s one reason why Randy Gwirtzman, portfolio manager at Baron Capital, avoids companies with lots of leverage. Among his largest holdings are shares of DraftKings, a stock he bought more of during the fourth quarter. 6park.com
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“投资者被大型科技股迷住了，把小盘股抛在了一边，”他说。“当经济好转时，真正振奋人心的是小公司。” 6park.com
“Investors have become enamored with Big Tech stocks—they’ve left small-caps by the wayside,” he said. “Economic upturns are particularly exciting for smaller companies.”


芯片制造商Super Micro Computer是小型股中颇受投资者青睐的股票。图为该公司首席执行官Charles Liang。