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Why pessimism is pointless — and pernicious 悲观主义者可能觉得，悲观和忧虑会有助于促使人们行动起来，但许多研究表明情况正好相反。
It may be fashionable to be a catastrophist but the consequences can be alarming. 6park.com
在励志界，有很多格言警句赞扬积极思维的力量，强调改变消极思维的重要性。“一旦你摒弃消极想法，代之以积极想法，你就会开始获得积极结果。”“积极思维不只是一句口号。”“世事本无好坏，皆因思想使然。”（最后一句出自莎士比亚(Shakespeare)，借由哈姆雷特(Hamlet)之口。） 6park.com 6park.comYet when it comes to the way in which we think and talk about the world outside our own heads, its future in particular, striking anything other than a very gloomy tone is not the done thing. We seem to have collectively decided that we must at all times pursue and project a sense of relentless, spirit-crushing pessimism. Not only will you sound careless and insensitive to all the suffering in the world if you say anything optimistic or upbeat, you will also find yourself lacking gravitas and just sounding deeply uncool. 6park.com然而，每当我们思考和谈论我们头脑以外的世界、尤其是世界的未来时，除了发表极其悲观的看法，说别的似乎都是不地道的。我们似乎集体拿定了主意，我们必须时时刻刻都竭力摆出一副总是高兴不起来、意气消沉的悲观态度。如果你说了什么乐观向上的话，你不仅显得对世界上的种种苦难无动于衷、漠不关心，你还会觉得自己说的话有失庄重，非常跟不上潮流。 6park.com 6park.comOver the years, I have often been struck when, upon asking a friend or acquaintance how they’re doing, they answer me with something along the lines of “Oh you know, not great, the world is just so f***ed right now”. I tend to nod along, not always entirely sure what particular aspect of f***edness in the world I’m nodding along with. The plethora of dreadful things they could be referring to at any given moment (is it Gaza, antisemitism, climate change or AI this time?) proves that it is not hard to find stuff to be pessimistic about. 6park.com这些年来，在问起某个朋友或熟人的近况时，他们经常回答类似这样的话：“噢，你知道，不太好，如今世道真是操蛋。”听到这样的话我总是很感慨。我一般都会点头附和，尽管我并不总是十分确定我在点头附和这个世界上具体哪个操蛋的方面。在任何特定时刻，他们可能指的可怕事情都太多了（现今就有加沙局势、反犹主义、气候变化或人工智能），找到让人悲观的事情并不难。 6park.com 6park.comBut there is plenty to be positive about too. I don’t intend to list it all here, but just last year infant mortality hit a new record low, a breakthrough came in the treatment of Alzheimer’s, a cheap and effective malaria vaccine was approved and golden eagles reached record numbers in Scotland following a conservation project. 6park.com但是也有很多事情值得积极看待。我无意在这里悉数罗列，但仅就去年而言，就有婴儿死亡率创历史新低、阿尔茨海默症治疗方法有了突破、一种廉价有效的疟疾疫苗获批、一个环境保护项目导致苏格兰金雕数量创历史最高纪录等等好消息。 6park.com 6park.comWe might think we are being clever when we are being pessimistic, but research would suggest otherwise: a 2017 study of 28 countries by Ipsos Mori found that respondents who were least informed about various measures of human progress were also the most pessimistic about the future. 6park.com我们可能以为，当我们抱着悲观看法时，我们才是聪明人，但研究发现并非如此。2017年益普索-莫里(Ipsos Mori)在28个国家开展的一项调查发现，对各项人类进步衡量指标了解最少的受访者也是对未来最悲观的。 6park.com 6park.comWhile 52 per cent of respondents overall wrongly believed extreme poverty was getting worse (about 100,000 people escape extreme poverty every day), those in poorer countries were both more knowledgeable about this and more optimistic about the future. While some 41 per cent of Chinese respondents said they agreed that “the world is getting better”, only 4 per cent of Britons and 6 per cent of Americans agreed (the French were the most misérable, at just 3 per cent). 6park.com虽然总体而言有52%受访者错误地认为极端贫困现象越来越严重（实际上每天约有10万人脱离极端贫困），但较贫困国家的受访者更了解这一点，也对未来更乐观。约41%的中国受访者表示认同“世界在变得越来越好”，只有4%的英国人和6%的美国人认同这一点（法国人最悲观，只有3%的人认同）。 6park.com 6park.comPessimism, in other words, is often misplaced. But, more than that, it can be harmful, too. Pessimists might think that their doom and gloom is helpful in motivating people to act, but many studies have shown the opposite is true. 6park.com换句话说，悲观经常是不适当的。但是，不光如此，它还可能是有害的。悲观主义者可能觉得，悲观和忧虑会有助于促使人们行动起来，但许多研究表明情况正相反。 6park.com 6park.comIn a 2015 study published in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, researchers tested the hypothesis that exposing people to information about how geoengineering can help reduce carbon emissions could make them complacent about climate change. This was not borne out: instead, they found that if you show people possible practical solutions, they become more concerned about climate change. 6park.com2015年发表在《美国政治和社会科学院年鉴》(The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science)上的一篇报告中，研究人员检验了一种假设：使人们了解关于地球工程学如何帮助减少碳排放的信息，可能使人们对气候变化抱着满不在乎的态度。这种假设没有得到证实：相反，研究人员发现，如果你向人们展示潜在的切合实际的解决方案，他们会变得更关心气候变化。 6park.com 6park.com“People think pessimism is a call to action, a way to shake people out of their complacency — that if you tell them the world is ending then people are going to be spurred into action, they’re going to protest on the streets and they’re going to vote for the right party,” Ghent University philosopher Maarten Boudry tells me. “But the more catastrophist you are, the more you give people the idea that the window of opportunity has closed and there’s nothing to be done.” 6park.com“人们以为悲观主义能号召人们行动，促使人们摆脱满在不乎的态度——如果你告诉他们，世界快完了，人们立刻就会行动起来，他们会走上街头抗议，他们会把选票投给合适的政党，”根特大学(Ghent University)哲学家马尔滕•布德里(Maarten Boudry)对我说道。“但是，你越是抱着灾难就要降临的观点，你越给人一种印象：机会窗口已经关闭，什么都做不了了。” 6park.com 6park.comA 2023 paper in the journal Philosophy & Public Affairs came to a similar conclusion, finding that “pessimism is a hindrance rather than a support to the case for existential risk mitigation”. 6park.com2023年《哲学与公共事务》(Philosophy & Public Affairs)期刊上的一篇论文得出了类似结论，“就减少生存风险的情况来说，悲观主义是一种阻碍而不是帮助”。 6park.com 6park.comExaggerated pessimism also risks creating a crying-wolf problem, deepening distrust in supposedly trustworthy sources when catastrophic warnings are proved to have been overblown. US congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in 2019 that “the world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change”. Presumably we are now seven years away from extinction? 6park.com过分悲观还可能造成“狼来了”的问题，当灾难警告被证明是夸大其词时，原本值得信赖的人就会招人怀疑。美国众议院女议员亚历山大•奥卡西奥-科尔特斯(Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)在2019年曾说，“如果我们不解决气候变化问题，世界将在12年后终结”。算起来，在这个灭绝的时间点过后，我们已经又过了7年了。 6park.com 6park.comIt is often said that “it’s the hope that kills you”, but it’s actually the lack of it that is genuinely fatal. Studies have shown all-cause mortality is higher among pessimists. And into the void that pessimism leaves in its wake come all sorts of nasty and dangerous phenomena: chaos, nihilism and, perhaps just as frightening, the kind of reckless and deluded nothing-could-possibly-go-wrong optimism put forward by Marc Andreessen in his “techno-optimistic manifesto”. 6park.com人们常说，“希望会害死你”，实际上，缺少希望才真正有害。研究表明，全因死亡率在悲观主义者中是最高的。而且，在悲观情绪之下，各种糟糕危险的现象就会趁虚而入：混乱、虚无主义——还有或许同样可怕，马克•安德里森(Marc Andreessen)在“技术乐观主义宣言”中提倡的那种鲁莽虚妄的认为什么都不会出错的乐观主义。 6park.com 6park.comWe need to find a way to ensure that we don’t make pessimism a self-fulfilling prophecy. We need to Make Pessimism Uncool Again. 6park.com我们必须设法确保我们不会让悲观主义成为自我实现的预言。我们必须让悲观主义再度变得不流行。
The world of self-help teems with motivational quotes about the power of positive thinking, and the importance of reframing the negative. “Once you replace negative thoughts with positive ones, you’ll start having positive results.” “Positive thinking is more than just a tagline.” “There is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.” (That last one is from Shakespeare himself, via Hamlet.) 6park.com
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