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I Read All 59 of Warren Buffett’s Annual Letters. These Are the Best Parts.
从1965年开始，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的致股东信以幽默和个性化的方式记录了这家公司的成长历程。巴菲特的信徒们将这些信视为教导和智慧的源泉。 6park.com6park.com在写最新一封股东信的时候，沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的脑子里有一个目标受众：他的妹妹伯蒂(Bertie)。 6park.comWarren Buffett had an audience in mind for his latest letter to shareholders: his sister Bertie. 6park.com 6park.com除了向已故合作伙伴查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)致敬之外，这位伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的董事长兼首席执行官还在2月24日的股东信中提到了他的妹妹，从而给这封信平添了几分在其他公司的通讯稿中很难见到的亲切感。 6park.comTogether with Buffett’s tribute to his late partner, Charlie Munger, the Berkshire Hathaway chairman and chief executive’s references to his sister gave Saturday’s letter a familiar tone that would be unexpected in many corporate communications. 6park.com
但它是延续了巴菲特半个多世纪以来形成的向伯克希尔哈撒韦股东传递信息的风格。 6park.comBut they were in keeping with a style Buffett developed over more than half a century of messages to owners of Berkshire shares. 6park.com
他在信中写道：“在脑海中将伯克希尔哈撒韦所希望的股东具像化时，我很幸运地拥有一位完美的模型——我的妹妹伯蒂。” 6park.com“In visualizing the owners that Berkshire seeks, I am lucky to have the perfect mental model, my sister, Bertie,” he wrote. 6park.com
巴菲特接着写道，他的妹妹聪明又理智，谁也别想愚弄她——但她还不足以参加注册会计师考试，也不认为自己是一位经济专家。 6park.comBuffett went on to say that his sister is smart, sensible and nobody’s fool—but isn’t ready for a CPA exam and doesn’t consider herself an economic expert. 6park.com
“因此，”这位着名的投资者写道，“伯蒂今年会对什么感兴趣？” 6park.com“So,” the famed investor wrote, “what would interest Bertie this year?” 6park.com
上面这封信是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司向股东发出的一系列年度信件中最新的一封，这些信件最早可以追溯至1965年，当时，巴菲特的投资伙伴获得了该公司的控制权。（早期的信件由伯克希尔哈撒韦的其他人签署，但由巴菲特撰写。） 6park.comSaturday’s letter was the latest in a series of notes to Berkshire shareholders stretching back to 1965, when his investing partnership took control of the company. (Early letters were signed by other Berkshire figures but written by Buffett.) 6park.com
这些信件追踪了伯克希尔哈撒韦从一家陷入困境的新英格兰纺织品制造商发展成为一家巨型企业集团的过程，这个集团拥有庞大的股票投资组合以及包括保险、铁路、能源和糖果在内的商业利益。 6park.comThe letters trace the evolution of Berkshire from a struggling New England textile manufacturer to a conglomerate with a huge stock portfolio and business interests including insurance, rail, energy and candy. 6park.com
一路走来，巴菲特就保险业的运作方式、会计规则的细微差别以及考虑股票估值的方法给股东提供了指导。巴菲特的任务是解释一些股东可能觉得棘手的问题，他写信的语气就像一位友好的老师，有时还很风趣。 6park.comAlong the way, Buffett instructed shareholders in the workings of the insurance industry, the nuances of accounting rules and how to think about valuing a stock. Tasked with explaining subjects that some shareholders might find a slog, Buffett wrote in the voice of a friendly—and sometimes funny—teacher. 6park.com2019年，巴菲特享用伯克希尔哈撒韦旗下Dairy Queen的冰激凌。 6park.com他曾援引约吉·贝拉(Yogi Berra )和梅·韦斯特(Mae West)的名言、乡村歌曲以及《圣经》的内容。在2007年2月的股东信中，他提到追溯型保险交易时的开场白是“警告：你该吃西兰花了”，最后总结道：“我向你们保证过不会有测验，你们难道不开心吗？” 6park.comHe quoted Yogi Berra and Mae West, country songs and the Bible. In a February 2007 letter, he began a section about retroactive insurance transactions with “Warning: It’s time to eat your broccoli” and concluded: “Aren’t you glad that I promised you there would be no quiz?” 6park.com
伯克希尔哈撒韦现在是美国市值第七大的公司，它的信徒将这些信件视为教导和智慧的源泉。 6park.comStudents of Berkshire, now the seventh-largest U.S. company by market value, turn to the letters as a source of education and wisdom. 6park.com
以下是一些比较经典难忘的段落： 6park.comHere are a few of the more memorable passages: 6park.com寻找收购目标 Searching for acquisitions 6park.com“公司一直在纺织领域内外寻找合适的收购目标。尽管到目前为止尚未成功完成收购，但我们仍然对此类收购抱有积极的兴趣。”——1966年12月2日 6park.com“The company has been searching for suitable acquisitions within, and conceivably without, the textile field. Although to date none has been successfully concluded, we continue to have an active interest in such acquisitions.” 6park.com 6park.com（由伯克希尔董事长小马尔科姆·蔡斯(Malcolm Chace Jr.)和总裁肯尼斯·蔡斯(Kenneth Chace)签署） 6park.com (signed by Berkshire Chairman Malcolm Chace Jr. and President Kenneth Chace) 6park.com 6park.com亲吻蟾蜍 Kissing toads 6park.com 6park.com“投资者总是可以按蟾蜍的现行价格买到蟾蜍。但如果投资者不去买蟾蜍，反而提供资金给那些愿意支付双倍价格获得亲吻蟾蜍权利的公主，那么这些亲吻最好能产生轰动性效果。我们观察过很多亲吻，但奇迹却很少发生。尽管如此，许多管理界的公主仍然对自己的亲吻可能在未来产生的效力充满信心——即使他们公司后院齐膝深的草地里已经爬满了反应迟钝的蟾蜍。”——1982年2月26日 6park.com“Investors can always buy toads at the going price for toads. If investors instead bankroll princesses who wish to pay double for the right to kiss the toad, those kisses had better pack some real dynamite. We’ve observed many kisses but very few miracles. Nevertheless, many managerial princesses remain serenely confident about the future potency of their kisses—even after their corporate backyards are knee-deep in unresponsive toads.” 6park.com 6park.com恐惧和贪婪 Fear and greed 6park.com“恐惧和贪婪这两种传染性超强的疾病偶尔爆发的情况将一直出现在投资界。这两种流行病爆发的时间将是不可预测的。它们造成的市场失常在持续时间和程度方面同样不可预测。因此，我们从不试图预测任何一种疾病的来去时间。我们的目标比较温和：我们只是试图在别人贪婪的时候恐惧，而只有在别人恐惧时才贪婪。”——1987年2月27日 6park.com“Occasional outbreaks of those two super-contagious diseases, fear and greed, will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these epidemics will be unpredictable. And the market aberrations produced by them will be equally unpredictable, both as to duration and degree. Therefore, we never try to anticipate the arrival or departure of either disease. Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” 6park.com 6park.com就像在棒球场上 As in baseball 6park.com“当然，从长远来看，投资决策的记分牌是市场价格。但是价格将由未来的收益决定。在投资过程中，就像在棒球场上一样，要想在记分牌上得分，就必须关注赛场，而不是记分牌。”——1992年2月28日 6park.com“It’s true, of course, that, in the long run, the scoreboard for investment decisions is market price. But prices will be determined by future earnings. In investing, just as in baseball, to put runs on the scoreboard one must watch the playing field, not the scoreboard.” 6park.com
谁在裸泳？ Who’s been swimming naked? 6park.com
飓风“安德鲁摧毁了几家小型保险公司。除此之外，它还让一些较大的公司意识到，它们针对灾难的再保险保护还远远不够。（只有当潮水退去，你才知道谁在裸泳。）”——1993年3月1日 6park.comHurricane “Andrew destroyed a few small insurers. Beyond that, it awakened some larger companies to the fact that their reinsurance protection against catastrophes was far from adequate. (It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.)” 6park.com我们的鸭子评级如何？ What’s our duck rating? 6park.com“在牛市中，一定要避免犯这样的错误：暴雨过后用嘴梳理羽毛的鸭子夸夸其谈，以为是自己划水的本事让自己崛起于世。相反，思维正确的鸭子会在倾盆大雨之后将自己的位置与池塘里其他鸭子的位置进行比较。那么我们对自己1997年表现的鸭子评级是什么？对页的这张表格显示，尽管我们去年拼命划水，但仅投资于标普指数的被动鸭子的上涨速度几乎和我们一样快。所以，我们对1997年业绩表现的评价是：夸夸其谈。”——1998年2月27日 6park.com“In a bull market, one must avoid the error of the preening duck that quacks boastfully after a torrential rainstorm, thinking that its paddling skills have caused it to rise in the world. A right-thinking duck would instead compare its position after the downpour to that of the other ducks on the pond. 6park.comSo what’s our duck rating for 1997? The table on the facing page shows that though we paddled furiously last year, passive ducks that simply invested in the S&P Index rose almost as fast as we did. Our appraisal of 1997’s performance, then: Quack.” 6park.com
一份难看的成绩单 A tough report card 6park.com“就连糊涂大侦探都能找到去年的罪魁祸首：你们的董事长。我的表现让我想起了一名四分卫，他的成绩单显示为四个F和一个D，但他有一位善解人意的教练。‘孩子，’这位教练慢吞吞地对他说，‘我想你在这个科目上花费了太多时间。’我的‘这个科目’就是资本配置，1999年我在这个科目上的成绩肯定是D。这一年对我们伤害最大的就是伯克希尔股票投资组合的糟糕表现——除了由政府雇员保险公司(GEICO)的卢·辛普森(Lou Simpson)负责管理的一小部分之外，这个投资组合的责任完全由我承担。”——2000年3月1日 6park.com“Even Inspector Clouseau could find last year’s guilty party: your Chairman. My performance reminds me of the quarterback whose report card showed four Fs and a D but who nonetheless had an understanding coach. ‘Son,’ he drawled, ‘I think you’re spending too much time on that one subject.’ 6park.comMy ‘one subject’ is capital allocation, and my grade for 1999 most assuredly is a D. What most hurt us during the year was the inferior performance of Berkshire’s equity portfolio—and responsibility for that portfolio, leaving aside the small piece of it run by Lou Simpson of GEICO, is entirely mine.” 6park.com 6park.com不要按字面意思去理解小鸟 Don’t literally think birds 6park.com“这个传达神谕的圣人是伊索，他经久不衰的投资灼见（尽管有些不完整）就是‘一鸟在手胜过二鸟在林’。要充实这一原则，你只需要回答三个问题。你有多确定灌木林里真的有鸟？它们什么时候会出现以及会出现多少只？无风险利率有多高（我们假定这个利率就是长期美国国债的收益率）？如果你能回答这三个问题，你就能知道这片灌木林的最大价值以及你现在拥有的应该为这片林子提供的最大数量的小鸟。当然，不要按字面意思去理解这个小鸟。把它想成美元。”——2001年2月28日 6park.com“The oracle was Aesop and his enduring, though somewhat incomplete, investment insight was ‘a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.’ To flesh out this principle, you must answer only three questions. How certain are you that there are indeed birds in the bush? When will they emerge and how many will there be? What is the risk-free interest rate (which we consider to be the yield on long-term U.S. bonds)? If you can answer these three questions, you will know the maximum value of the bush—and the maximum number of the birds you now possess that should be offered for it. And, of course, don’t literally think birds. Think dollars.” 6park.com 6park.com2019年，巴菲特在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的年度股东大会上。 6park.com 6park.com借势 Riding the wave 6park.com 6park.com“多年来，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司和其他美国股票的持有者轻而易举地实现了繁荣。让我们举个真正长期的例子，从1899年12月31日到1999年12月31日，道指从66点上涨到11,497点。这种巨大涨幅背后的原因很简单：一个世纪以来，美国企业表现得异常出色，投资者借着这股繁荣势头乘风破浪。”——2006年2月28日 6park.com“It’s been an easy matter for Berkshire and other owners of American equities to prosper over the years. Between December 31, 1899, and December 31, 1999, to give a really long-term example, the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497…. This huge rise came about for a simple reason: Over the century American businesses did extraordinarily well and investors rode the wave of their prosperity.” 6park.com资本家和小鹰镇 Capitalists and Kitty Hawk 6park.com“最糟糕的企业就是那种增长迅速，需要大量资本来实现这种增长，结果却赚不到什么钱的企业。想想航空公司。自莱特兄弟(Wright Brothers)时代以来，持久的竞争优势在这个行业已被证明是难以捉摸的东西。实际上，如果一位有远见的资本家当时就在小鹰镇(Kitty Hawk)的首飞现场，他会击落奥维尔(Orville)（译者注：莱特兄弟中的弟弟）的飞机，给他的后来者帮个大忙。”——2008年2月 6park.com“The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.” 6park.com价格的重要性 The importance of price 6park.com“资本配置的第一定律（无论这些资金是用于收购还是股票回购）就是，在某一个价格上展开交易你是明智的，但在另一个价格上你可能就是愚蠢的。”——2012年2月25日 6park.com“The first law of capital allocation—whether the money is slated for acquisitions or share repurchases—is that what is smart at one price is dumb at another.” 6park.com泡沫破裂 Bubbles pop 6park.com“在过去15年中，互联网类股和房地产都证明了一点：将最初合理的论点与广为人知的不断上涨的价格结合起来就会导致极度过剩。在这些泡沫中，一大批原本持怀疑态度的投资者屈从于市场提供的‘证据’，而买家群体一度会扩大到足以继续推进这股浪潮的程度。但是，泡沫吹得足够大，就不可避免地会破裂。然后，一句古老的谚语再次得到证实：‘智者始，愚者终。’”——2012年2月25日 6park.com“Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses that can be created by combining an initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices. In these bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the ‘proof’ delivered by the market, and the pool of buyers—for a time—expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling. But bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: ‘What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.’” 6park.com还没有准备好使用Tinder Not ready for Tinder 6park.com“在生产人们想要的东西方面，没有什么能与市场体系相媲美——在提供人们还不知道自己想要的东西方面，市场体系更是所向披靡。我父母年轻的时候想象不到电视机，我在50多岁的时候也不认为自己需要一台个人电脑。一旦人们发现了它们的功能，这两样产品就迅速改变了他们的生活。如今，我每周花十个小时在网上打桥牌。而且，在我写这封信的时候，‘搜索’对我来说是无价之宝。（不过，我还没有准备好使用Tinder。）”——2016年2月27日 6park.com“Nothing rivals the market system in producing what people want—nor, even more so, in delivering what people don’t yet know they want. My parents, when young, could not envision a television set, nor did I, in my 50s, think I needed a personal computer. Both products, once people saw what they could do, quickly revolutionized their lives. I now spend ten hours a week playing bridge online. And, as I write this letter, ‘search’ is invaluable to me. (I’m not ready for Tinder, however.)” 6park.com准备好洗衣盆，而不是茶匙 Washtubs, not teaspoons 6park.com“查理和我没有什么神奇的计划来增加收益，只是有远大的梦想，并且在心理上和财务上做好准备，以便在机会出现时迅速采取行动。每隔十年左右，经济天空就会布满乌云，然后会下一场短暂的黄金雨。当这种倾盆大雨降临时，我们必须带着洗衣盆而不是茶匙冲出门。”——2017年2月25日 6park.com“Charlie and I have no magic plan to add earnings except to dream big and to be prepared mentally and financially to act fast when opportunities present themselves. Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons.”
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