China’s Factory Activity Slows Again, Highlighting Limits of Government Measures


中国制造业连续第五个月呈收缩势头，凸显中国领导层要提振经济所面临的困难，也让人们憧憬高层官员会在下周两会上提出力度更大的政策措施。


江苏省泰州市一家工厂的工人正在焊接收割机部件。

中国制造业2月份连续第五个月呈收缩势头，凸显了中国领导层在寻求支撑步履蹒跚的国内经济之际所面临的困难，也让人们憧憬下周两会召开时高层官员会提出更大力度的政策措施。 6park.com
China’s vast manufacturing sector remained in contraction for a fifth consecutive month in February, underscoring the difficulties facing the country’s leadership as it seeks to support a faltering economy, and raising hopes for bolder policy moves when top officials gather for annual legislative meetings next week. 6park.com
    
中国国家统计局周五公布，衡量中国工厂活动的官方指数从1月份的49.2降至49.1。该读数低于50表明制造业活动萎缩，高于50则表明扩张。 6park.com
An official gauge of China’s factory activities edged down to 49.1 from January’s 49.2, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in activity while a reading above that mark suggests an expansion. 6park.com
    
此外，周五公布的一项主要聚焦民营和出口导向型企业的非官方制造业指数从1月份的50.8微升至50.9。 6park.com
Separately on Friday, a private survey of manufacturing activity focused on private and export-oriented companies showed a marginal gain to 50.9, from 50.8 in January. 6park.com
   
与每年的情况一样，上述读数可能因春节长假期间工厂活动停顿这一季节性干扰因素而失真，今年的春节长假在2月中旬。尽管如此，经济学家们认为，周五的数据凸显出中国政府近期试图提振国内经济的努力成效有限，具体措施包括下调一项关键贷款利率，以及向国内银行系统和陷入困境的房地产行业提供更多流动性。 6park.com
As is the case every year, the readings may be distorted by seasonal disruptions from the Lunar New Year long holiday, which fell in mid-February this year, bringing factory activity to a halt. Even so, economists say Friday’s data highlight the limited effectiveness of Beijing’s recent attempts to prop up the economy, including by slashing a key lending rate and injecting more liquidity into the country’s banking system and its beleaguered property sector.



综合来看，这些疲弱的数据几乎不会让中国高层领导人松口气，他们下周将齐聚北京，制定接下来一年的政策重点，同时他们还要解决久拖不决的结构性问题，比如过度依赖信贷推动的投资和房地产建设。 6park.com
Together, the weak figures offer little relief for top Chinese leaders as they prepare to gather in Beijing next week to outline policy priorities for the year ahead, faced with addressing long-festering structural problems, including an overreliance on credit-fueled investment and real-estate construction. 6park.com
    
中国2023年经济增速为5.2%，是除疫情三年外的数十年来最慢年增速之一。在房地产市场持续低迷的同时，中国还在应对多重挑战，包括居民消费意愿不足、持续的通缩压力、外商投资意愿减弱和政府债务不断增加，所有这些都牵制了政府刺激经济的能力。 6park.com
China’s economy expanded 5.2% in 2023, one of the weakest yearly growth rates in decades, aside from the tumult of the Covid-19 years. Along with the protracted property slump, China is grappling with multiple challenges including consumers’ reluctance to spend, persistent deflationary pressures, waning foreign investment appetite and mounting government debt, all of which have limited authorities’ ability to juice the economy. 6park.com
   
由于全球市场对中国产品的需求低迷，再加上中国与主要贸易伙伴的关系因电动汽车这种大卖商品而日益紧张，出口也因此蒙上一层阴影，而出口是中国近年来最可靠的增长引擎之一。途径红海的货船遇袭事件也给向欧洲销售产品的中国出口商带来更多不确定性。 6park.com
Subdued global appetite for Chinese products and rising tensions with major trade partners over one category of goods that is proving wildly successful—electric vehicles—are also casting a cloud over exports, one of China’s most reliable engines of growth in recent years. Attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea are also adding new uncertainties for Chinese exporters selling to Europe. 6park.com
   
房地产行业对中国总体经济来说十分重要，在顶峰时期约占中国经济总产值的四分之一，这意味着房地产仍将是中国政府面临的一个首要挑战，购房者、开发商、经济学家和官员都在寻找楼市触底反弹的迹象。 6park.com
The property sector’s significance to the wider Chinese economy, accounting for roughly one quarter of activity at its peak, means real estate will remain a top challenge for Beijing, as home buyers, developers, economists and officials look for signs that the market has bottomed out. 6park.com
   
克而瑞(China Real Estate Information)周四发布的数据显示，中国百强房企2月份新建住宅销售再创新低，销售总额约合258亿美元，比上年同期下降60%。该数据提供商称，这一销售数字环比下降了21%，反映了购买力疲弱、潜在购房者对市场走向的悲观情绪，以及春节八天长假的影响。 6park.com
China’s 100 largest developers saw new home sales fall to another fresh record low in February, with the total sales value falling 60% from a year earlier to the equivalent of $25.8 billion, according to data released by China Real Estate Information on Thursday. The limpid sales figure, which represents a 21% drop from January, reflects subdued purchasing power and pessimism among potential home buyers about the market’s direction, in addition to an eight-day-long Lunar New Year holiday, the data provider said. 6park.com
   
房地产行业陷入困境的最新迹象是，债务缠身的住宅开发商碧桂园控股有限公司(Country Garden Holdings)面临解决债务危机的新压力，此前一名债权人周三要求香港法院对该公司进行清算，原因是该公司未能偿还一笔超过2亿美元的贷款。 6park.com
In the latest signs of distress in the sector, debt-laden home builder Country Garden Holdings is facing renewed pressure to settle its debt crisis after a creditor on Wednesday asked a Hong Kong court to liquidate the company over the nonpayment of a more than $200 million loan.


北京的一处建筑工地

今年1月，曾是中国最大开发商的中国恒大集团(China Evergrande Group, 3333.HK, 简称：中国恒大)在上千亿美元债务重组失败后被香港法院下令清盘，成为在这场危机中倒下的最大房企之一。 6park.com
In January, China Evergrande Group, once China’s largest developer, became one of the biggest casualties of the property crisis when it was ordered to liquidate by a Hong Kong court following failed efforts to restructure billions of dollars in debt. 6park.com
   
由于担心房地产行业出现更大幅度调整，中国住房城乡建设部周三敦促地方政府稳定房地产市场，“防止市场大起大落”。 6park.com
Fearing a sharper correction in the property sector, China’s housing ministry on Wednesday urged local authorities to stabilize the housing market and “prevent major ups and downs.” 6park.com
   
投行瑞穗(Mizuho)的资深中国经济学家Serena Zhou在本周的一份报告中告诉客户，政策制定者正越发一致地认为，房地产市场现已达到一个新的均衡状态。她预计政府将出台更多房地产扶持措施。 6park.com
“For the property sector, there is a growing consensus among policymakers that the market has now reached a new equilibrium,” Serena Zhou, senior China economist at investment bank Mizuho, told clients in a note this week, adding that she expects more government efforts to support the sector. 6park.com
   
2月份官方制造业调查的生产分类指数从1月份的51.3降至49.8，重现萎缩。新订单指数仍为49.0，新出口订单指数从1月份的47.2降至46.3。衡量就业的从业人员指数从1月份的47.6降至47.5，表明制造商招聘意愿不强。 6park.com
The production subindex of the official manufacturing survey returned to contraction, falling to 49.8 in February from 51.3 in January. The index for total new orders remained at 49.0, while that for new export orders fell to 46.3 from January’s 47.2. The gauge for employment fell to 47.5 from January’s 47.6, suggesting tepid appetite from manufacturers to hire more workers. 6park.com
   
与此同时，中国国家统计局称，2月份涵盖服务业和建筑业活动的中国非制造业采购经理人指数从1月份的50.7升至51.4。 6park.com
Meanwhile, China’s nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers both services and construction activity, rose to 51.4 in February, compared with 50.7 in January, the statistics bureau said. 6park.com
   
追踪服务业活动的分类指数从1月份的50.1升至51.0，得益于今年春节假期比去年多一天，而建筑业分类指数则从1月份的53.9降至53.5。 6park.com
The subindex tracking services activity rose to 51.0 from January’s 50.1, boosted by a Lunar New Year holiday that was one day longer than last year’s, while the construction subindex dropped to 53.5 from 53.9 in January. 6park.com
    
人们普遍预计，中国政府会在下周召开的两会上正式确定今年GDP增长目标在5%左右，这将与去年的目标持平。经济学家们认为，与去年不同的是，由于2023年比较基数较高，今年实现这一目标将更加困难。 6park.com
Beijing is widely expected to set a formal target for gross domestic product to grow by around 5% this year, the same as last year, when it gathers for annual legislative meetings next week. Unlike last year, economists say hitting that goal will be harder this year, given the higher base of comparison in 2023. 6park.com
   
有经济学家表示，鉴于借贷需求不振和通货紧缩压力增大，可能需要财政政策在推动经济方面发挥比货币政策更大的作用。 6park.com
It will likely require fiscal policy to play a bigger role than monetary policy in powering the economy, economists say, given tepid borrowing demand and mounting deflationary pressures. 6park.com
    
尽管如此，经济学家仍预计中国政府将在今年降低政策利率和银行存款储备金率，不过对人民币汇率的担忧和保护银行利润率的考量将限制下调规模。 6park.com
That said, economists still expect authorities to trim policy rates and the levels of cash banks must hold as reserves this year, though concerns about the strength of China’s currency and protecting banks’ profit margins will constrain the scale of any cuts. 6park.com
   
据官方媒体新华社报道，在周四的一次会议上，由24名成员组成的中共中央政治局承诺今年积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。 6park.com
In a Thursday meeting, the ruling Communist Party’s 24-member Politburo pledged more forceful and effective fiscal policies this year, while adding that monetary policy would remain flexible and targeted, according to a report published by the state-run Xinhua News Agency. 6park.com
   
与会官员还承诺提高决策的稳定性和透明度，并重申中国政府打算通过促进所谓的“新质生产力”来使经济升级。新质生产力是一个含义仍较模糊的政治术语，经济学家认为泛指本土技术创新。 6park.com
Officials at the meeting also promised more stable and transparent policymaking and reiterated Beijing’s intention to upgrade the economy by promoting so-called “new productive forces,” a still-nebulous piece of political jargon that economists believe refers broadly to homegrown technological innovations. 6park.com
   
经济学家表示，中国最高领导层的另一项任务是赢回民营企业家和外国投资者的认可。由于近期中国股市大跌，民营企业家和外国投资者对中国经济的信心已进一步减弱。中国政府此前曾竭力设法阻止这轮股市大跌。 6park.com
Another task for China’s top leaders, economists say, is to win back the hearts and minds of private entrepreneurs and foreign investors, whose confidence in the world’s second-largest economy has been further eroded by a recent massive stock market rout that Beijing scrambled to end. 6park.com
   
中国知名企业家、亿万富翁俞敏洪上个月在一个论坛上发表了异常直率的讲话，呼吁政府减少对经济的干预。 6park.com
Yu Minhong, a prominent Chinese entrepreneur and billionaire, in unusually blunt remarks at a forum last month, called for less government intervention in the economy. 6park.com
   
俞敏洪麾下新东方教育科技集团(New Oriental Education & Technology)是中国最大的民办教育公司之一，中国政府2021年突然整顿营利性教培行业后，该公司裁员数万人。 6park.com
Yu’s New Oriental Education & Technology, one of China’s largest private-education companies, laid off tens of thousands of employees after Beijing launched an abrupt crackdown on the for-profit tutoring industry in 2021. 6park.com
   
俞敏洪向包括地方高级官员在内的听众呼吁，中国政府应尊重市场经济规则。俞敏洪表示，政府支持企业不等于要主导企业。 6park.com
The government should respect market economy rules, Yu pleaded to a group of audience that included senior local officials. “Government’s support for businesses is not equal to officials’ overstepping,” said Yu.