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Japan Is Back. Is Inflation the Reason?
日本或许已取得抗通缩之战的胜利，但较低水平正通胀率的好处可能并不明确。
日本的通货膨胀率长期处于零或负值左右，但随着疫情造成的供应链中断，通货膨胀率上升到2%以上。 The Nikkei stock index recorded last week its first new high in 34 years, a fitting tribute to Japan’s re-emergence as a genuinely exciting economy. 6park.com
日经指数上周创下34年新高，这是对日本重新崛起为真正令人兴奋的经济体的一种恰当褒奖。 6park.com
越来越多的证据表明，日本终于摆脱了通货紧缩的束缚。1月份通胀率为2.2%，为连续第22个月高于2%。工资增长也有所加快。 6park.comIt also comes amid mounting evidence that Japan has finally broken the hold of deflation. Inflation in January was 2.2%, the 22nd month above 2%. Wage growth has picked up too. 6park.com 6park.com这似乎印证了经济学界的共识，即通货紧缩是日本经济几十年来萎靡不振的主要原因。但这个结论可能言之过早。通货紧缩的危害一直难以证明，而且较低水平正通胀率的好处可能也不明确。 6park.comThis appears to vindicate the economic consensus that deflation was a primary driver of Japan’s decadeslong malaise. But that conclusion might be premature. Proof of deflation’s harm has been elusive, and the benefits of low, positive inflation might be similarly subtle. 6park.com
消费者听说“通货紧缩是坏事”时往往会感到惊讶。美国物价自2021年以来急剧上涨，如果物价小幅下跌，正常人甚至经济学家都不会反对。 6park.comConsumers are often surprised to hear that deflation is supposed to be bad. In the U.S., where prices have risen steeply since 2021, normal people, and even economists, wouldn’t object if they fell a bit. 6park.com
而当物价年复一年地持续下跌时，麻烦就来了，因为工资、收入和物业等资产的价格往往会跟着下跌。债务人难以偿还贷款，可能会削减支出或违约，从而危及金融体系。1929年至1933年期间美国物价下跌了27%，当时就是这种情况。 6park.comThe trouble arises when prices fall persistently, year in and year out, because wages, incomes and the prices of assets such as property tend to follow. Debtors struggle to repay loans and might slash spending or default, endangering the financial system. That is what happened in the U.S. when prices fell 27% from 1929 to 1933. 6park.com
从理论上讲，即使是轻微的通货紧缩也会抑制经济增长。央行通过将名义利率降至低于通胀的水平，使经通胀因素调整后的实际借贷成本为负值，从而刺激消费。当通胀率本身为负值时，这几乎是不可能的。 6park.comEven mild deflation can, in theory, inhibit growth. Central banks stimulate spending by lowering nominal interest rates below inflation to make the real—i.e., inflation-adjusted—cost of borrowing negative. That is almost impossible when inflation is itself negative.
通货紧缩的根源 Japan’s deflation began after its property and stock-market bubbles burst in the early 1990s. Ensuing losses at banks eroded their ability to lend. Inflation turned negative in 1999. 6park.com
日本的通货紧缩始于20世纪90年代初房地产和股市泡沫破灭之后。银行由此蒙受损失，放贷能力减弱。1999年通胀率转为负值。 6park.com
当时，包括后来成为美联储主席的伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在内的一些西方经济学家认为，治愈通货紧缩对于恢复日本的经济健康至关重要。日本央行起初半信半疑，后来完全信服了。 6park.comWestern economists such as future Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke argued that curing deflation was essential to restoring Japan’s economic health. The Bank of Japan agreed, at first half heartedly and then wholeheartedly. 6park.com
日本央行先是把短期利率降至零，然后又进一步实施了负利率。接着是购买短期国债，然后又扩大到购买长期国债。最后，日本央行甚至用新印出的货币购买公司股票，以刺激消费和提高通胀。 6park.comIt used zero, then negative, short-term interest rates. Next came purchases of short-term, then long-term, government securities. Finally, the BOJ even bought shares in companies with newly created money to stimulate spending and raise inflation. 6park.com
日本央行只是勉强将通胀率提高到了零水准左右。最后依靠新冠疫情给全球供应链带来的冲击，才将日本基础通胀率推高至日本央行设定的2%目标。 6park.comThe BOJ only succeeded in bringing inflation up to around zero. It took the global supply chain shocks of the pandemic to finally push underlying inflation to 2%, the bank’s target. 6park.com
在日本经历25年的零通胀或负通胀期间，日本经济增长率一直在全球富裕国家中处于最低行列。对其他国家而言，日本的通货紧缩成为一个警示，最近的例子是中国，目前中国的物价正在下跌。 6park.comJapan’s 25 years of zero to negative inflation was accompanied by one of the rich world’s lowest growth rates. Japanese deflation became a cautionary tale for other countries, most recently China, where prices are currently falling. 6park.com
然而，要证明通货紧缩是导致日本一系列问题的根源却难上加难。可以说，与其说通货紧缩是造成日本沉沦的原因，倒不如说是日本陷入困境后显现出来的症状。 6park.comYet proving that deflation was behind Japan’s problems is maddeningly hard. Arguably, it was more symptom than cause. 6park.com 6park.com在20世纪90年代初，日本劳动适龄人口转为负增长。这恰好发生在日本二战后追赶其他发达国家的阶段结束之时。与此同时，工业开始把生产线向低工资国家迁移。 6park.comIn the early 1990s, working-age population growth turned negative. This happened just as Japan’s post-World War II phase of catching up to other developed nations ended. Meanwhile, industry began moving production to lower-wage countries. 6park.com
所有这一切，再加上日本银行业危机，给物价、工资和经济增长都带来了结构性下行压力。 6park.comAll this, plus the banking crisis, put structural downward pressure on prices, wages and growth.
基本表现 Adjusted for its shrinking population, however, Japan’s performance has been respectable. From 1991 to 2019, its output per hour worked rose 1.3% a year. This was slower than in the U.S. but comparable with Canada, France, Germany and Britain, and faster than Italy or Spain, according to the economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Gustavo Ventura and Wen Yao. 6park.com
不过，如果把人口减少的因素考虑进去，日本经济表现还算是有可取之处的。从1991年到2019年期间，日本每小时劳动产出平均每年增长1.3%。经济学家Jesús Fernández-Villaverde、Gustavo Ventura和Wen Yao指出，这一增速低于美国，但与加拿大、法国、德国和英国相当，快于意大利或西班牙。 6park.com
根据笔者的计算，自2019年以来，美国劳动适龄人口人均产出增长了7%，日本增长5%，欧元区增长2%，而英国增幅为零。(这个数据结构可能夸大了日本的表现，因为日本有许多老人仍在工作）。任何游客都可以证明，日本仍然是一个繁荣、和谐、秩序井然的地方。 6park.comSince 2019, output per working-age person rose 7% in the U.S., 5% in Japan, 2% in the eurozone and zero in Britain, by my calculations. (This might overstate Japan’s performance because many of its elderly still work.) As any visitor can attest, Japan remains a prosperous, harmonious and well-ordered place.
“Had you appointed me governor of the Bank of Japan for 25 years with all the power in the world, I don’t think I would have been able to do better,” said Fernández-Villaverde. 6park.com 6park.com但这并不能证明通缩是良性的。如果没有日本央行在货币政策领域做出的艰苦努力，经济增长以及通缩有可能会更糟。而如果过去通胀率为正值，那么经济增长可能会更强劲。 6park.comThis doesn’t prove deflation was benign. Growth (and deflation) might have been worse without the BOJ’s herculean monetary efforts. And if inflation had been positive, growth might have been stronger. 6park.com
Fernández-Villaverde说：“要是我担任日本央行行长25年，并获得这个世界上所有的权力，我想我不会做得更好。” 6park.com
不过，这还是提出了一个尴尬的问题：如果零通胀或负通胀的破坏性如此之大，那么证据又在哪里呢？ 6park.comStill, it raises an awkward question: If zero to negative inflation is so damaging, where is the evidence?
价格机制 The harm might lie in subtle behavioral changes by investors, companies and the public. For example, in a market economy, changing relative prices and wages are critical signals for reallocating capital and labor from stagnant to growing sectors. 6park.com
危害可能在于投资者、公司和公众行为的微妙变化。例如，在市场经济中，相对价格和工资的变化是将资本和劳动力从停滞部门重新分配到增长部门的关键信号。 6park.com
东京大学(University of Tokyo)经济学家渡边努(Tsutomu Watanabe)认为，相对价格的变化在日本异常罕见。他发现，从1995年到2021年，半数以上产品的价格每年都没有任何变化。这不仅仅是因为平均通胀水平走低，价格变化偏离平均水平的程度也远低于其他国家。 6park.comRelative prices changes are unusually rare in Japan, according to the University of Tokyo economist Tsutomu Watanabe. He has found that from 1995 through 2021, prices of more than half of products didn’t change at all from year to year. This wasn’t just because average inflation was lower; price changes deviated from the average much less than in other countries. 6park.com 6park.com日本央行行长植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)在去年12月的一次讲话中说，多年的低通胀甚至负通胀导致了“工资和价格设定行为的现状”，因此，许多价格和工资都没有变化。他说，提价的诀窍就此丧失了。 6park.comIn a December speech, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said years of low to negative inflation led to a “status quo in wage- and price-setting behavior,” so many prices and wages didn’t change. “The know-how for raising prices was thus lost,” he said.
The absence of this price-discovery function, Ueda contended, sapped productivity and dynamism. 6park.com
植田和男认为，价格发现功能的缺失导致了生产力和经济活力的下降。 6park.com
渡边努的研究表明，自2022年1月以来，价格的粘性降低，离散程度增强。巧合的是，一年之后，日经指数开启了最新一轮涨势。 6park.comWatanabe’s research shows that since January 2022, prices have been less sticky and more dispersed. Coincidentally, the Nikkei’s latest rally began a year later. 6park.com
这很大程度上反映了巴菲特(Warren Buffett)等外国投资者的热情、有利于股东的公司治理变革以及日本作为中国在高端制造和技术领域替代国的重要地位。 6park.comThis in great part reflects the enthusiasm of foreign investors such as Warren Buffett, shareholder-friendly changes in corporate governance, and Japan’s importance as an alternative to China for high-end manufacturing and technology. 6park.com
不过，研究日本经济数十年的标普全球(S&P Global)前副董事长Paul Sheard说，通胀可能也是一个影响因素。他还表示，投资者关心的是名义而非实际的股价、收益、股息和现金流。 6park.comInflation, though, might also be a factor, said Paul Sheard, a former vice chairman at S&P Global who has studied the Japanese economy for decades. He added that investors care about nominal, not real, stock prices, earnings, dividends and cash flow. 6park.com
较高的通胀率会使所有这些指标变得更好看。这种好处可能会被利率上升所抵消，但日本债券收益率的升幅低于预期通胀率的升幅，因此实际收益率已降至-0.6%。 6park.comHigher inflation flatters all those metrics. That benefit might be neutralized by higher interest rates, but Japanese bond yields have risen less than expected inflation, so real yields are down to minus 0.6%. 6park.com 6park.com因此，通胀或许正让企业和投资者重新焕发活力。即便如此，日本去年的经济增长与新冠疫情暴发前差不多，而且在第三和第四季度略微转为负增长，并由此出现技术性衰退。不仅如此，工资增长落后于通胀，首相岸田文雄(Fumio Kishida)的支持率急剧下降。 6park.comSo perhaps inflation is reviving businesses’ and investors’ animal spirits. Even so, growth last year was about the same as before the pandemic and turned slightly negative in the third and fourth quarters, producing a technical recession. What’s more, wages have lagged behind inflation, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s approval ratings have plummeted. 6park.com
日本也许赢得了抗通缩之战。但日本普通民众尚未看到和平红利。 6park.comJapan might have prevailed in its war against deflation. But ordinary Japanese have yet to see a peace dividend.
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