Paramount’s Big Game Is Still a Sideshow


收视创纪录的超级碗确实给Paramount广告业务带来提振，但过去几个月，有关收购者上门的消息似乎源源不断，令该公司面临很大不确定性。


詹妮弗·洛佩兹和Fat Joe出现在2024年超级碗期间播出的Dunkin’广告中。

太可惜了，不是每个季度都有泰勒·斯威夫特(Taylor Swift)现身看台观战的超级碗。 6park.com
Too bad a Super Bowl with Taylor Swift in the stands doesn’t happen every quarter.  6park.com
    
伴随全球最火流行歌星的亮相，收视创纪录的超级碗将为Paramount Global陷入困境的电视广告业务带来不错的提振。在周三讨论公司第四季度财报的电话会议上，首席财务官Naveen Chopra表示，Paramount预计今年第一财季的广告营收增幅将在百分之十几的中低段，其中包括超级碗带来的影响。 6park.com
The record-breaking Super Bowl featuring the world’s biggest pop star will be giving a nice lift to Paramount Global’s beleaguered TV advertising business. On a conference call Wednesday to discuss the company’s fourth-quarter report, Chief Financial Officer Naveen Chopra said Paramount expects low to midteen percentage advertising revenue growth in the first quarter of this year, including the impact from the Super Bowl.  6park.com
    
鉴于Paramount的广告业务在过去连续八个季度同比下降，其中去年第四季度创下最大降幅11%，因此业绩转好无疑是个好消息。周三的电话会议后，Paramount的股价在盘后交易中小幅上涨。 6park.com
Given that Paramount’s ad business has fallen year over year in the past eight consecutive quarters, with an 11% drop in the fourth quarter being the worst, a turn is undoubtedly good news. Paramount’s share price rose slightly in after-hours trading following Wednesday’s call. 



但考虑到有线电视用户正在加速转向流媒体，这很可能充其量只是短期提振。Paramount很早就进入了流媒体广告领域，早于迪士尼(Disney)和Netflix等知名度更高的竞争对手。但天平依然没有平衡。2023年Paramount的流媒体广告业务增长了约2.6亿美元，但同期电视广告业务却缩水了近12亿美元。 6park.com
But it will likely be a short-term boost at best given the accelerating pace at which cable subscribers are cutting the cord and moving to streaming. Paramount entered the streaming ad game early, before higher-profile rivals like Disney and Netflix. But the scales still don’t balance evenly. Paramount expanded its streaming ad business by around $260 million in 2023, but its TV ad business shrank by nearly $1.2 billion during the same period.  6park.com
     
在向流媒体经济匆忙转型中苦苦挣扎的传统媒体巨头并非Paramount一家。但该公司却是业内挂着最大“待售”牌子的公司。过去几个月，有关收购者上门的消息似乎源源不断。但目前还没有任何交易，其中一个潜在收购者Warner Bros. Discovery据称已于本周退出。这笔交易本来就很勉强：Warner背负的债务是Paramount的三倍，而且不再受投资者欢迎，其股价在过去六个月里下跌了三分之一。 6park.com
Paramount is hardly the only traditional media giant struggling with the brutal shift to streaming economics. It is, however, the one bearing the largest “For Sale” sign in the industry. The past couple of months have brought a seemingly endless stream of headlines about suitors knocking on the door. But no deals have yet emerged, and one potential acquirer—Warner Bros. Discovery—reportedly dropped out this week. That deal would have been a stretch: Warner carries three times as much debt as Paramount and isn’t any more popular with investors, with its stock having lost a third of its value over the past six months.  6park.com
     
可能性最大的收购者似乎是独立电影制片商Skydance Media，该公司由甲骨文(Oracle)亿万富翁联合创始人拉里·埃里森(Larry Ellison)的儿子David Ellison经营。但这个选项也不那么好操作。据报道，Skydance正在考虑通过Paramount的控股股东National Amusements来控制Paramount。Paramount高管在周三的电话会议上不愿讨论交易传闻，而投资者似乎也不认为会有好事发生。自第一批交易谈判的报道开始浮出水面以来，该公司股价在过去三个月里累计下跌了约20%，接受FactSet调查的华尔街分析师中有39%维持对该公司股票的卖出评级，是迄今为止媒体公司中看跌比例最高的。 6park.com
The strongest possibility seems to be the independent film producer Skydance Media, run by David Ellison, the son of the billionaire co-founder of Oracle, Larry Ellison. But that would be a complicated option as well. Skydance is reportedly looking at taking control through Paramount’s controlling shareholder, National Amusements. Paramount executives wouldn’t discuss the deal rumors on Wednesday’s call, and investors don’t seem convinced something good is on the horizon. The stock has slid around 20% over the past three months since reports of the first deal talks started to surface, and 39% of Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet maintain sell ratings on the shares—by far the highest portion of bearish calls among media peers. 6park.com
    
尽管有超级碗的推动，但最新的业绩也不会改变这一态势。该公司第四财季的整体流媒体收入略好于预期，Paramount+服务净增410万用户。这使得该公司预计明年流媒体将实现盈利。但由于广告业务疲软和影视业务受好莱坞罢工影响，整体收入仍同比下降6%，至76亿美元。罢工的解决意味着今明两年将有更多的剧目上映。 6park.com
The latest results won’t change that dynamic, the Super Bowl boost notwithstanding. The company’s overall streaming revenue came in a little better than expected for the fourth quarter, with 4.1 million net new subscribers added to the Paramount+ service. That led the company to project that streaming will become profitable next year. But overall revenue still fell by 6% year over year to $7.6 billion, driven by the ad weakness and a theatrical business hurt by the Hollywood strikes. The settlement of those strikes means more shows are coming this year and next.  6park.com
    
但这与Paramount自身的曲折故事相比影响力孰轻孰重还不得而知，关于Paramount的命运似乎还有很多情节要展开。 6park.com
They will have to compete with Paramount’s corporate drama, which seems to have plenty of episodes remaining.