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For World Leaders, 70 Is the New 50
十年前，全球人口排名前十的国家中只有印度的领导人年龄在70岁以上。现如今，其中八个国家的领导人年龄都超过了70岁。
美国总统拜登的年龄在大选前引起了关注。 It’s a golden age for politicians in their golden years—and not just in the U.S. 6park.com
对于一群老年政客来说，现在是他们的黄金时代，不仅仅在美国如此。 6park.com
十年前，全球人口排名前十的国家中只有印度的领导人年龄在70岁以上。现如今，其中八个国家的领导人年龄都超过了70岁，由此，全球至少一半的人口掌控在这些七八十岁老人的手中。这十个国家中其余两个国家——印尼和巴基斯坦，在本月大选后也将迎来由七旬老人掌权。 6park.comA decade ago, just one of the world’s 10 most populous countries, India, had a leader who was 70 or older. Today, eight of them do, putting at least half the global population in the hands of people in their 70s and 80s. The two countries that don’t—Indonesia and Pakistan—are also poised to have septuagenarians at the helm after elections this month. 6park.com
2014年2月时，全球各国领导人的年龄比现在要低许多。彼时，美国由巴拉克．奥巴马(Barack Obama)主政，那一年他52岁，是相对精力旺盛的年龄。中国领导人习近平和俄罗斯领导人普京(Vladimir Putin)当时都是60岁出头。时任墨西哥总统恩里克·培尼亚·涅托(Enrique Pena Nieto)当年47岁，在领导人中算得上年轻。 6park.comThe corridors of power looked significantly less gray in February 2014. Barack Obama, at the relatively spry age of 52, occupied the White House. China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin were in their early 60s. Enrique Peña Nieto in Mexico was a youthful 47. 6park.com 6park.com为何全球出现了出生于战后婴儿潮的老年人执掌国家的热潮？原因有很多。 6park.comWhat’s behind the boom in boomer presidents and prime ministers? A multitude of reasons. 6park.com
独裁者加强了对权力的控制。2022年，时年69岁的习近平打破常规，开启了他作为中共党魁的第三个任期。普京在47岁时就登上了俄罗斯权力的顶峰，将近25年后，他仍大权在握，扫清了其统治面临的阻力。普京的一个有力挑战者阿列克谢．纳瓦尔尼(Alexei Navalny)本月初死于狱中，终年47岁。 6park.comAutocrats have deepened their grip on power. Xi began a norm-breaking third term as Communist Party chief in 2022, when he was 69 years old. Putin, who rose to the pinnacle of authority in Russia when he was 47, remains there nearly 25 years later, sweeping away resistance to his rule. One of his staunchest challengers, Alexei Navalny, died in prison earlier this month at 47.
中国领导人习近平与俄罗斯的普京会面，左图摄于2014年，右图摄于2023年。 Barriers to entry have also grown in democracies, where winning elections requires ever-larger pots of money, giving established politicians with well-oiled donor networks the upper hand. India’s Narendra Modi is widely expected to cruise to a third term this year at 73. Sheikh Hasina, 76, won an unprecedented fifth term as prime minister of Bangladesh in January and, after cracking down on the opposition, is in her 16th consecutive year in office. 6park.com
在民主国家，参选门槛也在提高，赢得选举需要越来越多的资金，这让拥有完善捐助网络的老牌政客占尽上风。外界普遍预计73岁的印度总理莫迪(Narendra Modi)今年将开启他的第三个任期。在打压反对派后，76岁的孟加拉国总理谢赫·哈西娜(Sheikh Hasina)今年1月赢得了选举，史无前例地开启了她的第五个任期，她的连续执政迈入第16个年头。 6park.com
2月中旬，印尼将一位72岁的地位稳固的政治精英推上了最高领导职位，将接替总统佐科(Joko Widodo)。佐科曾做过家具制造，还曾担任小城市的市长。他在2014年53岁时的选举具有里程碑意义，当时为这个全球人口第三大的民主国家注入了新的希望。 6park.comIn mid-February, Indonesia catapulted a 72-year-old member of the entrenched political elite to the top job. He is set to succeed President Joko Widodo, the former furniture maker and small-city mayor whose landmark 2014 election, when he was 53, infused the world’s third-largest democracy with new hope. 6park.com
英国智库英国皇家国际事务研究所(Chatham House)亚太项目主任Ben Bland说：“在世界各地的许多地方，新政党和新政客的准入门槛很高，无论它们是否为民主制。”Bland称：“考虑到我们面临的挑战规模和世界变化的速度，看到各地涌现出的较年轻领导人和新思想如此之少，实在令人沮丧。” 6park.com“Across the world there are many places that have high barriers to entry for new parties and for new politicians, whether they’re democratic or not,” said Ben Bland, director of the Asia-Pacific program at Chatham House, a U.K. think tank. “It’s pretty depressing seeing so few younger leaders and fresh ideas emerge everywhere given the scale of challenges we’re facing and the pace at which our world is changing.” 6park.com
在美国，“多大年纪才算太老”的问题正笼罩着总统大选。根据皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center) 2023年的一项调查，大多数选民表示，他们更希望总统的年龄不到70岁。许多人担心，健康状况不佳可能会成为81岁的美国总统拜登(Joe Biden)或77岁的特朗普(Donald Trump)的绊脚石。 6park.comIn America, the question of “How old is too old?” is looming over the presidential election. Most voters say they would prefer a president below 70 years of age, according to a 2023 survey by the Pew Research Center. Many are concerned that poor health could be a stumbling block for 81-year-old President Biden or 77-year-old Donald Trump.
“If we think of the two major parties, they’ve had several years to make sure that they do not end up in this situation and still they’re not able to come up with leaders that are signaling youth to voters,” said Aksel Sundström, an associate professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden. 6park.com
瑞典哥德堡大学(University of Gothenburg)政治学副教授Aksel Sundström说：“如果我们想想两个主要政党，他们曾有几年时间来确保自己不会陷入这种局面，但他们仍无法推出能让选民感受到新鲜活力的领导人。” 6park.com
美国政坛出现的各种失误表现登上新闻头条。拜登最近把埃及总统塞西(Abdel Fattah Al Sisi)称为墨西哥领导人。特朗普把他的共和党对手妮基·黑利(Nikki Haley)与前众议院议长南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)弄混。共和党参议院少数党领袖麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)去年夏天曾两次在镜头前愣住，麦康奈尔本月已满82岁。他的办公室说他当时感到头晕，麦康奈尔和他的盟友为他的健康做了保证。 6park.comFlubs and fumbles in Washington have made headlines. Biden recently referred to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi as the leader of Mexico. Trump confused his Republican rival Nikki Haley with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who turned 82 this month, froze in front of cameras twice last summer. His office said he felt lightheaded, and McConnell and his allies have vouched for his health. 6park.com
年长的政客们一直抵制要求他们下台的呼声，而执政优势意味着选民们很少会迫使他们下台。 6park.comOlder politicians have resisted calls to step aside, and incumbency advantages mean voters rarely force them to. 6park.com
本届任期开始时，美国众议员的平均年龄为57.9岁，参议员的平均年龄为64岁，与2021年开始的上届任期的平均年龄相比都略有下降。上届是有史以来议员平均年龄最高的一届国会。但再往前推，众议员的平均年龄自2003年以来提高了4岁。参议员的平均年龄比20年前提高了4.5岁。 6park.comThe average age of House members at the beginning of the current term was 57.9 years old and that of senators was 64. Both were down slightly from the averages of the previous term beginning in 2021—the oldest Congress on record—but going back further, the average age of a House representative has increased by four years since 2003. Senators are, on average, 4.5 years older than the members were 20 years ago.
去年7月，美国参议院少数党领袖麦康奈尔在一次新闻发布会的镜头前愣住。 The trend has led to proposals for maximum age limits for federal office. Republican presidential candidate Haley has called for compulsory mental competency tests for politicians over 75. Last year, Republican Rep. John James from Michigan proposed a constitutional amendment to bar anyone who would turn 75 during their term from running for Congress or president, but it wasn’t taken up and the effort appeared largely symbolic. 6park.com
鉴于这一趋势，已有人提议对联邦公职设置最高年龄限制。共和党总统候选人黑利曾呼吁对75岁以上的政客进行强制性心智能力测试。去年，密歇根州共和党众议员詹姆斯(John James)提出了一项宪法修正案，禁止任何在任期内年满75岁的人竞选国会议员或总统，但该修正案未被采纳，而且这一努力似乎基本是象征性的。 6park.com
在美国的两党制下，有抱负的年轻人通常需要从这两个既定阵营之一的底层做起。这使得出现象法国总统马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)这样的突破性领导人变得更加困难。马克龙创立了自己的政党，39岁时成为法国最年轻的总统，今年他又任命了一位更年轻的总理，年仅34岁。 6park.comUnder America’s two-party system, ambitious young people typically need to start from the bottom in one of the two established camps. That makes it more difficult to have breakthrough leaders such as France’s Emmanuel Macron, who started his own political party, became the country’s youngest president at 39 and this year appointed an even younger prime minister, age 34. 6park.com 6park.com更广泛而言，人口年龄比美国高的欧洲正逆势而行，并非由年长者担任领导人。欧洲的议会民主制为较年轻政客提供了更多立足空间，比如意大利右翼总理梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)，她在2022年45岁时成为意大利首位女性领导人。领导乌克兰战争的现任乌总统泽连斯基(Volodymyr Zelensky)今年46岁。 6park.comMore broadly, Europe, whose population is older than the U.S., is bucking the trend of senior leaders. Its parliamentary democracies allow more room for younger politicians to find their feet, like Italy’s right-wing prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, who became her country’s first female leader in 2022 when she was 45. President Volodymyr Zelensky, leading Ukraine’s war effort, is 46. 6park.com
在乌克兰和加沙的两场战争以及中美之间的大国竞争正在改变世界秩序之际，年长的领导人将自己的高龄视为一种优势。他们的支持者认为，要下好世界外交的五维棋需要经验。 6park.comOlder leaders cast their advanced age as an asset at a time when the two wars in Ukraine and Gaza and great-power rivalry between the U.S. and China are changing the world order. The five-dimensional chess of world diplomacy needs experience, their supporters argue.
2022 年，孟加拉国总理谢赫·哈西娜和印度总理莫迪在新德里会面。
印度尼西亚的当选总统苏比安托向支持者致意。 On the flip side, many people question if presidents and prime ministers of an older generation can lead a 21st-century world being rapidly redefined by artificial intelligence and climate change. 6park.com
另一方面，也有许多人质疑老一辈的总统和总理们能否领导一个被AI和气候变化迅速重新定义的21世纪的世界。 6park.com
有政治学家担心，如果年轻人觉得他们只能终日与祖父母那一代的政治人士为伍，他们可能就会脱离政治。政治学教授Sundström说，这会造成“疏离循环”风险，也就是年长的候选人会导致青年选民投票率下降，从而使政客们几乎没有动力关注年轻人的关切。 6park.comPolitical scientists worry young people will disengage from politics if they feel they are stuck with politicians of their grandparents’ generation. Sundström, the political science professor, says the risk is a “cycle of alienation,” with older candidates causing youth voter turnout to decline, in turn giving politicians little incentive to focus on the concerns of the young. 6park.com
日本和德国的研究表明，较年轻的市政领导人倾向于将更多开支用于影响年轻人的问题。例如，耶鲁大学(Yale University)博士后Charles McClean发现，市长年龄在50岁以下的日本市政当局更有可能将资金投入到公立日托中心的冗长等候名单问题上。 6park.comResearch from Japan and Germany shows that younger municipal leaders tend to direct more spending toward issues that affect the young. Charles McClean, a postdoctoral associate at Yale University, found, for instance, that Japanese municipalities with mayors under 50 were more likely to funnel money toward the problem of long wait lists at public daycare centers. 6park.com
“日本年轻的市长很少，”他说。“真的选出年轻领导的话会发生什么？当你让更多年轻人进入政府，我发现他们会去解决这些投资不足领域的问题，尤其是儿童保育。” 6park.com“There are very few young people in office,” he said of Japan. “What happens when you do elect a young person? When you bring more young people into government I find, yes, they are tackling these underinvested areas, especially child care.” 6park.com
但在世界许多地方，七旬老人正在就全球变暖的长期影响或提高婴儿数量等话题引领与年轻人的审慎对话。72岁的新加坡总理李显龙在不久前的农历新年致辞中说：“现在正是年轻夫妇为家庭添一条‘小龙’的大好时机。” 6park.comBut in many parts of the world, septuagenarians are leading delicate conversations with the youth about topics like the long-term impact of global warming or the need for more babies. “Now is as good a time as any for young couples to add a ‘little dragon’ to your family,” said Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, 72, in a recent Lunar New Year address.
梅洛尼在45岁时成为意大利第一位女性领导人。 He noted that many young people today have different priorities, like careers and spending quality time with their partners, but warned that it starts getting harder to conceive a child with each passing year. Lee intends to step down this year and pass the baton to someone two decades younger. If it weren’t for Covid-19 disruptions, he has said, he would have resigned before 70. 6park.com
他指出，如今许多年轻人优先考虑的是不同的事情，比如事业和与伴侣共度美好时光。但他提醒称，随着时间的推移，怀上孩子会变得越来越难。李显龙打算今年卸任，把接力棒传给年轻20岁的人。他曾说过，如果不是因为新冠疫情的干扰，他本会在70岁之前辞任。 6park.com
一些较年长的政客正试图缩小代沟。出生于二战期间的拜登本月开通了TikTok账号，并上传了一段关于超级碗(Super Bowl)的视频，配文“哈哈哈，大家好。”在印尼2月中旬的总统选举中，胜选的72岁前将军苏比安托(Prabowo Subianto)在Instagram上晒他抱着猫的照片，还在竞选活动中跳起了欢快的舞步，在网上迅速爆火。 6park.comSome older politicians are trying to bridge the age divide. Biden, born during World War II, joined TikTok this month with a video about the Super Bowl captioned “lol hey guys.” Prabowo Subianto, the 72-year-old former general who won in Indonesia’s mid-February presidential elections, cuddled his cat on Instagram and broke into jigs on the campaign trail that went viral. 6park.com
82岁的美国参议员伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)和74岁的前英国工党领袖科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)是对进步青年颇具影响力的人物，他们因为长期作为左翼的标杆而受到推崇。 6park.comSen. Bernie Sanders, 82, and former U.K. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, 74, are influential figures among progressive youth, gaining legitimacy for being long-term standard-bearers of the left. 6park.com
宾夕法尼亚州立大学(Pennsylvania State University)政治学助理教授Kevin Munger称，年轻人应该做好准备迎接更多的婴儿潮一代领导人。“等10到15年后他们年龄太大退出政治舞台时，情况会发生变化，”Munger称，“但在那之前真的不会。” 6park.comYoung people should buckle up for more boomer leaders, said Kevin Munger, assistant professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University. “It’s going to change when they age out of politics in 10 to 15 years,” he said, “but really not before then.”
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