Hong Kong Budget Set to Take Aim at Boosting Competitiveness, Lifting Recovery


香港将于周三公布2024-2025年财政预算案，眼下香港经济重拾一些增长势头，但仍远未稳固。分析人士预计，在香港寻求巩固复苏势头之际，预算案将以提高香港的竞争力为目标。


春节期间，香港尖沙咀商业区的路易威登门店内，购物者在排队等候。

香港将于周三公布2024-2025年财政预算案，眼下香港经济重拾一些增长势头，但仍远未稳固。中国经济复苏不稳、地缘政治紧张局势以及高利率环境下全球需求疲软，都给香港经济前景蒙上了阴影，与此同时香港还在努力应对股市低迷和房地产行业不景气的问题。 6park.com
Hong Kong is set to announce its 2024-2025 budget Wednesday as its economy regains some momentum but remains far from solid. China's own shaky recovery, geopolitical tensions and weak global demand in a high interest-rate environment cloud the outlook as the city grapples with an equities market slump and an anemic property sector. 6park.com
     
香港财政司司长陈茂波(Paul Chan)表示，虽然经济增速有所回升，但复苏力度不及预期。他表示，外部环境依然动荡，作为一个高度开放的小型经济体，香港将继续面临挑战。 6park.com
Growth has been picking up, but the recovery hasn't been as strong as expected, Financial Secretary Paul Chan has said. The external environment remains volatile, and "as a small and fully open economy, Hong Kong will continue to face challenges." 6park.com
    
分析人士预计，在香港寻求巩固复苏势头之际，预算案将着眼于提升香港的竞争力。 6park.com
Analysts expect budget measures to be aimed at boosting Hong Kong's competitiveness, as the city looks to solidify its recovery. 6park.com
    
值得关注的内容如下： 6park.com
Here's what to watch: 6park.com
      6park.com
▪ 预算赤字：外界普遍预计截至3月的财政年度香港的财政赤字增加。 6park.com
DEFICIT: Hong Kong is widely expected to report a bigger fiscal deficit for the fiscal year ending in March. 6park.com
     
毕马威预计，主要受土地相关收入和印花税收入减少影响，2023-2024财政年度赤字将达到1,300亿港元。去年公布财政预算案时，预计赤字为544亿港元。 6park.com
KPMG expects a fiscal 2023-2024 deficit of HK$130 billion on lower land-related and stamp-duty revenue. When the budget was announced last year, a HK$54.4 billion deficit had been forecast. 6park.com
    
这将意味着财政赤字第二年超过1,000亿港元大关。尽管面临着财政约束，但振兴经济意味着高支出。大华银行(UOB)经济学家Ho Woei Chen说，需要更多的刺激措施。他预计重点将转向长期竞争问题，并采取有选择性、有针对性的支持措施。 6park.com
This would mark the second year of a deficit above the HK$100 billion mark. Despite the fiscal constraints, rejuvenating the economy means high spending. "More stimulus will be needed," UOB economist Ho Woei Chen says, expecting focus to shift to longer-term competitive issues, with selective and targeted support measures.

▪ 财政储备：毕马威中国的香港区税务服务主管合伙人谭培立(John Timpany)表示，香港政府可以运用财政储备来增强竞争力。 6park.com
RESERVES: The government could deploy its reserves to enhance competitiveness, says John Timpany, head of tax in Hong Kong at KPMG China. 6park.com
    
他说，香港政府的财政状况仍然稳健，建议政府可善用财政储备以提升香港竞争力及把握中长期发展机遇。例如通过税收优惠鼓励更多外国企业在港设立地区总部。这将促进经济发展，帮助本地企业成长，并巩固香港的枢纽地位。 6park.com
The government is still "well-positioned to make good use of its fiscal reserves," he says, for example by encouraging more regional headquarters to be set up in Hong Kong via tax incentives. That would boost the economy, help local businesses grow and bolster the city's hub status. 6park.com
    
毕马威估计，截至2024年3月底，香港的财政储备为7,050亿港元；普华永道(PwC)预计为7,248亿港元，大致相当于11个月的支出。 6park.com
KPMG sees Hong Kong's fiscal reserve standing at HK$705 billion as of end March 2024; PwC projects HK$724.8 billion, or around 11 months of expenditure.

▪ 资本：旨在刺激更多投资的措施也在愿望清单上。 6park.com
CAPITAL: Measures to spur more investment are also on the wish list. 6park.com
    
普华永道中国南部及香港税务主管合伙人李尚义(Charles Lee)表示，政府需要推动鼓励在关键行业投资的举措，并推出更多措施，使更多优质投资落户香港。李尚义说，此外，还应加快扩大香港的税收协定网络，采取措施减轻大型跨国企业在即将实施的全球最低税率规则方面所面临的负担。 6park.com
Initiatives to encourage investments in key sectors need to be promoted, and additional measures to anchor more quality investments in the city rolled out, PwC South China and Hong Kong Tax Leader Charles Lee says. "This should be complemented by an acceleration of Hong Kong's tax treaty network expansion, along with measures to alleviate the burden faced by large multinational enterprises in scope for the upcoming global minimum tax rules." 6park.com
    
澳洲会计师公会(CPA Australia)表示， 另一条途径是培育绿色经济，这将吸引以可持续发展为重点的投资。澳洲会计师公会还希望看到对中小型企业的更多支持，以及对税收制度的全面评估。 6park.com
Cultivating the green economy is another avenue, which would tap sustainability-focused investment, CPA Australia says. It also wants to see more support for small and mid-sized business and a comprehensive review of the tax system.

▪ 展望：预算报告中有关香港经济运行情况和未来展望的评论也将成为关注焦点。同样将于周三公布的第四季度GDP终值很可能与初值一致，显示出旅游业和个人消费增长加快。2023日历年香港GDP实际增长率预计为3.2%，摆脱了2022年的萎缩，但增长率低于平均预期。 6park.com
OUTLOOK: Comments on how the economy is faring and what's ahead will also be in focus. Final fourth-quarter GDP data, also due Wednesday, will likely be in line with advance estimates showing growth accelerated on tourism and personal consumption. For the 2023 calendar year, GDP growth was estimated at 3.2% in real terms, reversing from a contraction in 2022 but undershooting consensus views. 6park.com
    
如果预算报告内容符合预期，将给香港股市带来可喜的提振，尤其是利好房地产和金融服务等板块。基准恒生指数在过去一年里一直呈下跌趋势，12个月的累计跌幅超过15%。但最近扳回了一些颓势，今年至今的跌幅为1.5%。 6park.com
If the budget lives up to expectations, that could give the stock market a welcome boost, particularly for sectors like property and financial services. The benchmark Hang Seng Index has been on downward trend for the past year, with 12-month losses of over 15%. But it has clawed back ground recently, with year-to-date losses at 1.5%.