Cigarettes Are Losing Their Hold on the Nicotine Fix


渴望尼古丁的美国人将更有可能选择电子烟或尼古丁口含袋，而不是香烟。但似乎没有烟草公司为此做好准备。


2023年，美国香烟销量缩减了约8%，是长期平均值的两倍。

很快，渴望尼古丁的美国人将更有可能选择电子烟或尼古丁口含袋，而不是香烟。但似乎没有烟草公司为此做好准备。 6park.com
Pretty soon, Americans who crave a nicotine hit will be more likely to reach for a vape or an oral nicotine pouch than a cigarette. Few tobacco companies look ready for this milestone. 6park.com
    
根据万宝路(Marlboro)制造商奥驰亚(Altria)的数据，去年香烟在美国尼古丁行业的份额从2018年的80% 下降到60%。吸烟者改用电子烟等无烟产品的人数高于预期。如果这一趋势继续下去，只需再过三年，香烟的份额就会下滑到50%以下。 6park.com
According to data from Marlboro maker Altria, cigarettes’ share of the U.S. nicotine industry fell to 60% last year, down from 80% in 2018. Smokers are switching to smoke-free products such as vapes in higher numbers than expected. If the trend continues, it will only take another three years for cigarettes’ share to slip below 50%. 6park.com
   
另一个看空香烟的迹象是，英美烟草(British American Tobacco)最近宣布对其部分美国烟草品牌进行273亿英镑的非现金减值，按当前汇率计算相当于346亿美元。此举将骆驼(Camel)和纽波特(Newport)等品牌的账面价值降低了三分之一，相当于承认自2017年英美烟草控股这些品牌的制造商Reynolds American以来，这些品牌的长期前景已经恶化。 6park.com
In another bearish sign for cigarettes, British American Tobacco recently announced a £27.3 billion noncash impairment of some of its U.S. tobacco brands, equivalent to $34.6 billion at current exchange rates. The move reduced the book value of brands such as Camel and Newport by a third, in an admission that their long-term prospects have deteriorated since BAT took control of their maker Reynolds American in 2017. 6park.com
    
2023年，美国香烟销量缩减了约8%，是长期平均值的两倍。烟草行业内部对香烟销量如此快速萎缩的原因以及这种趋势是否是短期的存在争议。烟草使用量失常已有数年之久：在疫情期间，烟草使用量异常高，当时人们被困在家中，吸烟量增加，但最近烟草使用量低于正常水平。 6park.com
In 2023, the number of cigarettes sold in the U.S. shrank by around 8%, double the long-term average. There is a debate within the tobacco industry about what is causing volumes to contract so fast and whether the trend is short-term. Tobacco use has been out of kilter for a few years: It was unusually high during the pandemic when people were stuck at home and smoked more, but has been lower than normal recently.



通胀和价格上涨可能迫使一些吸烟者减少吸烟甚至完全戒烟。英美烟草和奥驰亚都宣布了新的提价方案，已于今年1月生效，此前这两家公司在2023年曾分别提价三次和四次。在疫情之前的几年里，每年提价两次是常态。 6park.com
Inflation and price increases may have forced some smokers to cut back on cigarettes, or to quit altogether. Both BAT and Altria announced new price increases that took effect in January, after raising them three and four times respectively in 2023. In the years leading up to the pandemic, two price increases a year were the norm. 6park.com
    
但是，只用香烟价格上涨这个理由并不能完全解释香烟市场的溃败，因为如果吸烟者手头拮据的话，他们可以选择购买更便宜的品牌。根据高盛(Goldman Sachs)对美国6.7万家销售香烟的便利店和加油站进行的一项调查，零售商认为最近的价格上涨正促使吸烟者将目光完全投向香烟之外的替代品。 6park.com
But costlier cigarettes don’t entirely explain the collapse because smokers have the option to trade down to cheaper brands if they are feeling pinched. According to a Goldman Sachs survey representing 67,000 U.S. convenience stores and gas stations that sell cigarettes, retailers think the recent price increases are causing smokers to look outside the cigarette category altogether. 6park.com
   
烟草公司面临的挑战是，消费者拥有比以往更多的尼古丁替代品。与尼古丁口含袋一样，从中国进口的非法一次性电子烟是去年在美国销售增长最快的尼古丁产品。随着香烟销量的下滑，香烟产品获得的零售空间也越来越小，从而加剧了问题的严重性。 6park.com
The challenge for tobacco companies is that consumers have more nicotine alternatives than ever. Along with oral nicotine pouches, illicit disposable vapes imported from China were the fastest-growing nicotine product in the U.S. last year. As cigarette sales slip, they are getting less retail space, compounding the problem. 6park.com
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长期以来，烟草公司用来抵御销量下滑的法宝一直都是强大的提价能力。在2018年至2023年期间，即使美国香烟行业的销量缩减了五分之一以上，奥驰亚集团的营业利润仍增长了27%。 6park.com
Cigarette companies’ defense against falling volumes has long been their amazing ability to raise prices. Between 2018 and 2023, Altria grew its operating profit by 27%, even as cigarette industry volumes in the U.S. shrank by more than a fifth.  6park.com
   
但这种屡试不爽的老办法可能要失效了。2023年，英美烟草在美国的香烟业务收入下降了6%，因为提高售价只能部分抵消销量下降逾11%的影响。奥驰亚香烟业务的营业利润已连续两个财季下滑。奥驰亚正拿出更多钱用于促销活动，以保住烟民对奥驰亚旗下品牌的忠诚度，但奥驰亚的提价能力可能也在下滑。 6park.com
But the old trick may be stalling. BAT’s U.S. cigarette revenue fell 6% in 2023 as price rises only partially offset volume declines of more than 11%. Altria’s operating profit from cigarettes has fallen for two consecutive quarters. The Marlboro maker is spending more on promotions to keep smokers loyal to its brands, but its ability to raise prices may also be slipping. 6park.com
    
即使没有通胀压力，卷烟销量可能也不可避免地骤然下降。根据菲利普莫里斯国际首席执行官Jacek Olczak的说法，一旦非燃烧烟草品牌在一个国家的尼古丁市场总量中占到7%左右的份额，并且在街头变得更加显眼，它们就会开始以更快的速度挤走传统香烟。在日本，加热烟草棒目前约占该国烟草市场总量的40%。加热烟草棒是菲利普莫里斯国际首创的技术，能让用户在没有有害烟雾的情况下享受尼古丁的刺激。 6park.com
The plunge in cigarette volumes might be inevitable, even without inflation pressures. According to Philip Morris International Chief Executive Jacek Olczak, noncombustible brands start to push out cigarettes at a faster rate once they reach around 7% of a country’s total nicotine market and become more visible in the street. In Japan, heated tobacco sticks—a technology pioneered by PMI that gives users a nicotine hit without the harmful smoke—now make up around 40% of the country’s total tobacco market. 6park.com
    
如果大型烟草公司想继续像过去那样盈利，就必须迅速发展无烟品牌。这方面的进展看起来喜忧参半。在英美烟草，去年无烟产品的销售额增长了21%，但在该公司总收入中仍只占不到五分之一。奥驰亚集团的on! 尼古丁口含袋业务正在蓬勃发展，但其无烟产品的业务规模较小。 6park.com
If major tobacco companies want to remain as profitable as they have been in the past, they need to grow their smoke-free brands quickly. Progress looks mixed. At BAT, sales of smokeless products grew 21% last year but they still generate less than a fifth of the company’s total revenue. Altria’s on! nicotine pouches are booming, but its smokeless portfolio is small.  6park.com
    
菲利普莫里斯国际在美国以外地区拥有万宝路品牌。该公司比竞争对手更早开始投资无烟产品，目前无烟产品占其净收入的40%。今年5月，该公司将接手IQOS加热烟草棒在美国的推广工作，届时与奥驰亚集团的分销协议将到期。如果该产品在美国火起来，可能会给传统卷烟销量带来更大压力。不过加热烟草棒在美国尚未得到验证，在美国，电子烟更为流行。 6park.com
PMI, which owns the Marlboro brand outside the U.S., started investing in smokeless products earlier than its rivals and they now account for 40% of its net revenue. The company will take over the U.S. rollout of its IQOS heated tobacco sticks in May, when a distribution agreement with Altria expires. If the product takes off, it could put even more pressure on cigarette volumes. But heated tobacco sticks are unproven in the U.S., where vaping is much more popular.  6park.com
   
随着传统香烟迅速衰落，无烟市场份额的争夺战正进入白热化阶段。 6park.com
With old-school cigarettes in fast decline, the battle for share of the smokeless market is really heating up.