China’s Carbon Emissions Are Set to Decline Years Earlier Than Expected


中国去年新增风力和光伏发电装机容量达300吉瓦，新增的低碳发电能力首次大到足以满足中国每年增加的全部电力需求。


去年，中国在宁夏北部戈壁沙漠安装的太阳能发电量超过了美国太阳能电池板的总装机容量。

中国大规模推广可再生能源的步伐正在加快，对这一领域的投资增幅之大促使国际气候观察机构目前预计，中国的温室气体排放量将比预期提前数年达到峰值，最快可能今年就达峰。 6park.com
China’s massive rollout of renewable energy is accelerating, its investments in the sector growing so large that international climate watchdogs now expect the country’s greenhouse-gas emissions to peak years earlier than anticipated—possibly as soon as this year. 6park.com
   
根据最新的政府数据，仅去年一年，中国就新增光伏发电装机容量217吉瓦，增幅55%。从内蒙古的沙漠到西南部的山区，再到全国各地的房顶，包括天安门广场边人民大会堂的屋顶，到处都能看到太阳能电池板。 6park.com
China installed 217 gigawatts worth of solar power last year alone, a 55% increase, according to new government data. That is more than 500 million solar panels and well above the total installed solar capacity of the U.S. They appeared everywhere from the deserts of Inner Mongolia to the mountains of southwest China to rooftops across the country, including on the Great Hall of the People on the edge of Tiananmen Square. 6park.com
    
去年，中国新增风力发电装机容量76吉瓦，超过世界其他国家的增量总和。中国在国内新安装了2万多台风力涡轮机，其中包括安装在中国东海岸附近海域高塔上的世界上最大的风力涡轮机。 6park.com
Wind-energy installation additions were 76 gigawatts last year, more than the rest of the world combined. That amounted to more than 20,000 new turbines across the country, including the world’s largest, planted on towers in the sea off China’s east coast. 6park.com
   
分析人士说，新增的低碳发电能力（还包括水电和核电）首次大到足以满足中国每年增加的全部电力需求。总部设在巴黎的国际能源署(International Energy Agency)和赫尔辛基能源与清洁空气研究中心(Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air)的首席分析师Lauri Myllyvirta认为，这一动态表明，占世界最大污染排放国总排放量70%的燃煤发电量在未来几年将减少。 6park.com
The low-carbon capacity additions, which also included hydropower and nuclear, were for the first time large enough that their power output could cover the entire annual increase in Chinese electricity demand, analysts say. The dynamic suggests that coal-fired generation—which accounts for 70% of overall emissions for the world’s biggest polluter—is set to decline in the years to come, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency and Lauri Myllyvirta, the Helsinki-based lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.


图为内蒙古一家公司厂区的风力涡轮机叶片。去年，中国在国内新安装了2万多台风力涡轮机。


去年，中国安装了超过5亿块太阳能电池板。图为中国连云港的一家太阳能电池板工厂。

中国不断扩大的可再生能源足迹正在影响全球应对气候变化的行动。从太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机到电动汽车，中国公司是清洁能源技术的领先制造商。这激起了其他工业化国家对未来能源供应依赖中国的担忧。 6park.com
China’s expanding renewables footprint is shaping the global response to climate change. Its companies are the leading manufacturers of clean-energy technology, from solar panels and wind turbines to electric vehicles. That is stoking concerns in the rest of the industrialized world about depending on China for their energy supplies in the future. 6park.com
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与此同时，中国在国内部署可再生能源也为国际气候外交注入了新的活力。长期以来，中国排放量的快速增长为批评者提供了素材，他们认为中国政府并没有致力于应对气候变化或支持巴黎气候协定。巴黎协定是一项具有里程碑意义的气候协议，呼吁各国政府努力将升温幅度限制在比工业化前温度高1.5摄氏度以内。而现在，分析人士和官员表示，中国政府的努力为巴黎协定的进程提供了动力，该进程要求各国政府每五年更新一次排放计划。 6park.com
At the same time, China’s deployment of renewables at home is breathing new life into international climate diplomacy. Its rapid emissions growth long provided fodder for critics who said Beijing wasn’t committed to fighting climate change or supporting the Paris accord, the landmark climate agreement that calls for governments to attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial temperatures. Now, analysts and officials say Beijing’s efforts are lending momentum to the Paris process, which requires governments to draft new emissions plans every five years. 6park.com
   
“提前达峰将具有重大象征意义，会向全世界发出我们已渡过难关的信号，”总部位于奥斯陆的国际气候与环境研究中心(Center for International Climate and Environmental Research)的高级研究员Jan Ivar Korsbakken说。 6park.com
“An early peak would have a lot of symbolic value and send a signal to the world that we’ve turned a corner,” said Jan Ivar Korsbakken, a senior researcher at the Oslo-based Center for International Climate and Environmental Research. 6park.com
    
2020年，中国领导人习近平承诺，中国将提高国家自主贡献力度，采取更加有力的政策和措施，二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值，努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。这是中国根据巴黎协定所制定的部分计划。他还表示，到本10年末，中国的太阳能和风能总发电能力将达到1200千兆瓦。中国比计划提前了六年：2023年底中国的风能和太阳能发电能力已达到1,050千兆瓦，中国电力企业联合会(China Electricity Council)上个月预测，到今年年底将超过1,300千兆瓦。 6park.com
In 2020, Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledged that the country’s emissions would begin falling before 2030 and hit net zero before 2060, part of its plan prepared under the Paris accord. He also said China would have 1,200 gigawatts of total solar- and wind-power capacity by the end of this decade. The country is six years ahead of schedule: China reached 1,050 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity at the end of 2023, and the China Electricity Council forecast last month that capacity would top 1,300 gigawatts by the end of this year. 6park.com
   
“中国的增长速度超级快，”总部设在巴黎的国际能源署执行董事比罗尔(Fatih Birol)说。 6park.com
“China’s acceleration was extraordinary,” said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the Paris-based International Energy Agency. 6park.com
    
中国有关部门定期公布能源消耗和发电数据，但不公布温室气体排放总量。总部设在英国的非营利组织Transition Zero称，官方数据与他们的数据“大体一致”；该组织利用卫星图像监测中国的工业活动和排放情况。 6park.com
Chinese authorities publish regular data on energy consumption and generation but not overall greenhouse-gas emissions. Transition Zero, a U.K.-based nonprofit that uses satellite images to monitor industrial activity and emissions in China, says the official data are “broadly aligned and consistent” with theirs.

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一些分析人士预计，一旦达到峰值，接下来几年将出现排放平台期，而不是快速下降。科学家们表示，这是一个问题，因为全球主要排放国必须在本十年内大幅削减全球排放量——与2019年相比减少43%，才能履行巴黎协定。 6park.com
Once the peak arrives, some analysts expect an emissions plateau to follow rather than a rapid fall in the following years. That is a problem, scientists say, because the world’s major emitters must sharply cut global emissions this decade—by 43% compared with 2019—to fulfill the Paris accord. 6park.com
    
气候行动追踪组织(Climate Action Tracker)是一个评估各国政府排放计划的科学联盟，该组织认为中国目前的政策“远远不足以”实现1.5摄氏度的目标。该组织去年11月发布的最新分析显示，中国的排放量应在2025年达到峰值。该联盟称，如果风能和太阳能发电装机容量能像去年一样平均每年达到300吉瓦，那么中国的排放量将在本十年末大幅下降。排放量一直在下降的美国的行动和政策被评为“不足”。 6park.com
Climate Action Tracker, a scientific consortium that evaluates governments’ emissions plans, rates China’s current policies as “highly insufficient” to meet the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal. Its latest analysis, published in November, says China’s emissions should peak by 2025. If wind and solar installations can average 300 gigawatts a year—as they did last year—China’s emissions should fall significantly by the end of the decade, the consortium says. The actions and policies of the U.S., where emissions have been falling, were graded as “insufficient.”


中国盐城市滩涂湿地的一个风电场。

尽管如此，分析人士称，如果排放量在下一个十年开始下降并将中国达到总体排放峰值的时间提前，可使预计的全球升温幅度降低约0.3至0.4摄氏度。联合国环境规划署(United Nations Environment Program)去年11月的一份报告称，迄今为止，根据巴黎协定提交的排放计划将使本世纪全球升温2.5摄氏度。 6park.com
Still, moving China’s timeline for an overall emissions peak forward could shave off around 0.3 to 0.4 degrees Celsius of projected global warming if emissions started to decline next decade, analysts say. Emissions plans submitted to date under the Paris accord would put the world on track to warm by 2.5 degrees Celsius this century, a United Nations Environment Program report said in November. 6park.com
   
中国仍在建设燃煤发电厂，这引发了西方官员的批评，他们批评中国正在锁定未来数年的二氧化碳排放。中国政府一直告诉西方官员，新电厂的污染程度并不像他们担心的那样严重。这些电厂将取代老旧、排放较高的电厂，而且将在远低于满负荷的情况下运行。在中国更多的电力来自间歇性风能和太阳能之际，这些电厂主要用于维持电网稳定。去年11月，中国推出了煤电容量电价机制，使燃煤电厂即使在作为备用发电来源时也能赚钱。习近平在2021年表示，中国将从2026年开始逐步减少煤炭消耗。 6park.com
China is still building coal-fired power plants, fueling criticism from Western officials that it is locking in carbon-dioxide emissions years into the future. Beijing has been telling Western officials that the new plants won’t be as polluting as they fear. They are replacing older, higher-emitting plants, and will run far below full capacity, used largely to maintain electric-grid stability as China generates more of its power from intermittent wind and solar. In November, China unveiled a system of capacity payments for coal-fired plants that will allow them to earn money even when they are running as backup power sources. Xi said in 2021 that China would begin to phase down its coal consumption starting in 2026. 6park.com
   
分析人士说，中国碳达峰的确切时间取决于未来几年的经济增长和天气等因素。随着中国房地产行业的下滑，预计经济增长将放缓，除非中国政府采取新的重大经济刺激计划，而这样的刺激计划将增加工业碳排放。若今年夏天发生另一场干旱，则将促使中国的煤炭发电厂加速运行，以替代损失的水力发电。 6park.com
The exact timing of China’s peak depends on factors such as economic growth and weather in the next few years, analysts say. Growth is expected to slow following China’s real-estate sector slump—unless Beijing undertakes a major new program of economic stimulus that would boost industrial emissions. Another spell of drought this summer would push the country’s coal plants to run harder to replace lost hydropower generation.


图为中国西南部的一座燃煤电厂。该国仍在建设燃煤发电厂，尽管中国政府表示新电厂的污染程度并不严重。

但几乎可以肯定的一点是，中国将继续快速推广可再生能源，分析人士预计，中国每年将继续新增200到300吉瓦的风力和光伏发电装机容量。可再生能源投资已成为中国经济的主要驱动力。去年，中国的清洁能源支出总额增长40%，达到8,900亿美元。能源与清洁空气研究中心认为，房地产行业低迷带来拖累之际，如果没有上述增长，去年中国的投资原本将与2022年持平。 6park.com
The most certain variable in the equation is the breakneck pace of China’s renewable-energy rollout, which analysts expect will continue to add 200 to 300 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity a year. The investments in renewable energy have become a major driver of the Chinese economy. The country’s clean-energy spending totaled $890 billion last year, up 40%. Without that growth, investment in China would have been flat as the country reels from the slump in its real-estate sector, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. 6park.com
    
这些投资包括清洁能源装置，以及生产太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机、电池和电动汽车的大型工厂的建设，这使中国成为清洁技术的主要生产国。目前，中国在这些领域的工厂有大量闲置产能。电动汽车的普及速度之快促使分析人士预计，中国的汽油需求已于去年达峰。 6park.com
The investments include clean-energy installations and the construction of enormous factories to produce solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles—turning the country into the leading manufacturer of clean tech. Its factories in those sectors now have plenty of unused capacity. The adoption of electric vehicles is happening so rapidly that analysts say peak gasoline demand in China was already reached last year. 6park.com
   
在去年11月于迪拜举行的第28届联合国气候变化大会上，时任中国气候变化事务特使的解振华表示，中国将测算碳达峰的年份和绝对量。他还称，中国政府将根据巴黎协定制定接下来的排放计划。 6park.com
At the United Nations COP28 climate conference in Dubai in November, Xie Zhenhua, then China’s climate envoy, said the government would calculate the year and absolute volume of the country’s emissions peak. He also said Beijing is drawing up its next emissions plan under the Paris accord. 6park.com
    
解振华曾表示，中国说到肯定做到，而且争取做得更好。“我们对此很有信心，” 他说。 6park.com
“Our country will do as it’s said and strive to do even better,” he said. “I have faith.”