German Companies Bet on AI But Payoff Could Be Years Away


由于人口老龄化趋势可能拖累生产率增长，德国企业开始逐步尝试AI技术，但在对AI的应用和投资上仍落后于中国等国家。


在德国杜塞尔多夫市汉高工厂包装生产线上的Persil Power Gel瓶装洗衣液。

德国企业开始逐步尝试利用AI来提高生产率，但一些企业警告说，AI技术红利可能还需要数年时间才能实现。 6park.com
German businesses are increasingly experimenting with artificial intelligence to become more productive, but some caution the gains the technology promises could be years away. 6park.com
   
从自动化流程到优化供应链，德国企业逐渐开始在工作任务中使用AI工具。AI技术预计将可减少重复性工作，让员工腾出手去干价值更高的新任务，从而提高工作效率。 6park.com
From automating processes to optimizing supply chains, German companies are resorting to AI tools for a growing range of functions. The technology is expected to make work more efficient by cutting repetitive tasks and freeing employees up for new, higher-value jobs. 6park.com
  
与许多其他工业国家一样，德国的生产率增长在近年来已停滞不前，这一趋势让经济学家担心人口老龄化可能造成的长期影响。 6park.com
Productivity growth in Germany, like in many other industrial countries, has stalled in recent years, a trend that has economists worried about possible long-term implications as the population ages. 6park.com
  
OpenAI的聊天机器人ChatGPT自2022年底推出以来大为风靡，随后微软(Microsoft)和谷歌(Google)也相继推出各自的Copilot和Gemini，引发了全球企业对AI技术的投资热潮。 6park.com
The popularity of OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot since its launch in late 2022, followed by Microsoft’s Copilot and Google’s Gemini, sparked a wave of investments from companies globally. 6park.com
   
德国的一些企业乐观地认为AI技术可以提高生产率。 6park.com
Some businesses in Germany are optimistic that the technology could boost productivity. 6park.com
  
消费品公司汉高(Henkel)的首席执行官Carsten Knobel说，“AI可能是近几十年来最具变革性的技术发展。AI将从根本上改变所有行业的工作任务和资质要求。” 6park.com
“AI is probably the most transformative technological development in recent decades. It will fundamentally change tasks and qualification profiles across all industries,” said Carsten Knobel, chief executive at consumer-goods company Henkel. 6park.com
   
制造Dial牌肥皂和Snuggle牌柔顺剂的汉高一直在对员工进行AI培训，使用AI技术来实现粘合剂业务的自动化流程。在汉高的生产设施里，中央云服务器从配备了传感器的机器上收集数以百万计的数据点，并在AI辅助下对这些海量数据进行分析和处理，以最大限度地提高效率并检测出任何有缺陷的产品或包装。 6park.com
The maker of Dial soap and Snuggle fabric softener has been training its workforce in AI, which it uses to automate processes in its adhesives business. In its production facilities, a central cloud server collects millions of data points from its machines equipped with sensors, analyzing and processing them with the help of AI to maximize efficiency and detect any flawed products or packaging. 6park.com
  
汉高正在与思爱普(SAP)、Adobe和微软等技术合作伙伴开展一系列试验项目。但Knobel也表示，鉴于AI技术的发展速度是如此之快，要预测汉高在五年的时间框架内将如何运用AI几乎是不可能的事情。 6park.com
Henkel is running a number of pilot projects with technology partners like SAP, Adobe and Microsoft. However, Knobel says it is almost impossible to predict how the company will use AI in five years’ time given how fast the technology evolves. 6park.com
  
荷兰国际集团(ING)的德国资深经济学家Inga Fechner说，许多德国公司在AI方面还处于试验阶段。Fechner说，数据保护、员工技能和缺乏使用案例等问题都阻碍了公司使用AI，一些公司正在观望，看看别人怎么做，然后再采取行动。 6park.com
Many German companies are at an experimental stage regarding AI, said Inga Fechner, ING’s senior economist for Germany. Data-protection concerns, workforce skills and lack of use cases are holding them back, and some are waiting to see what others do before acting, Fechner said. 6park.com
   
根据最新的IBM全球AI应用指数，在德国，在员工人数超过1,000人的公司中，将AI作为业务运营的一部分而应用AI技术的比例约为32%，另有44%的公司正在探索使用AI。根据IBM的报告，这使得德国在企业应用AI方面落后于其他领先的国家，比如印度、阿联酋、新加坡和中国，在这些国家里，AI的应用率均超过50%，而全球平均水平为42%。 6park.com
In Germany, the proportion of companies with more than 1,000 employees that deploy AI as part of their business operations stands at about 32%, with a further 44% exploring its use, according to the latest IBM Global AI Adoption Index. This puts Germany behind the countries that lead in AI enterprise adoption—India, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore and China, all of which have deployment rates above 50%—and the global average of 42%, according to the IBM report. 6park.com
  
至于对AI初创企业的投资，身为全球第三大经济体的德国也显得力不从心。斯坦福以人为本的人工智能研究所(Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence)发布的AI指数报告引用了市场情报公司Quid的数据，显示出在2013-2023年期间，在私营领域投资AI方面，德国排名第六，位于美国、中国、英国、以色列和加拿大之后。 6park.com
When it comes to investment in AI startups, Germany—the world’s third-largest economy—is punching below its weight too. Over the 2013-23 period, Germany ranked sixth in terms of private investment in AI, behind the U.S., China, the U.K., Israel and Canada, according to data from marketing-intelligence firm Quid cited in the AI Index report by the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. 6park.com
   
外卖送餐公司Delivery Hero从2011年起就开始使用机器学习，但直到去年才开始大规模投资于生成式AI；这是驱动ChatGPT运作的技术，可以生成文本、图像和其他形式的内容。 6park.com
Food-delivery firm Delivery Hero has been using machine learning since 2011, but only last year started investing at scale in generative AI, the technology behind ChatGPT that can generate text, images and other forms of content. 6park.com
  
Delivery Hero的数据科学高级主管Tillmann Neben说，该公司使用生成式AI创建菜单上的食物图片，或通过对话式搜索帮助消费者搜罗小众餐厅。 6park.com
Tillmann Neben, senior director of data science at Delivery Hero, said the company uses generative AI to create food images for menus or help customers find niche restaurants through conversational search. 6park.com
   
“AI不是在取代任何人或任何事物，”Neben说。他还预计，该技术会带来新的功能和能力，最终将帮助提高员工的工作效率。 6park.com
“AI isn’t replacing anyone or anything,” Neben said. Instead, he expects the technology to bring new features and capabilities that will ultimately make the workforce more efficient. 6park.com
   
Neben说：“在我们的快节奏业务中，有些任务颇为耗时，比如内容创建和客户支持，而这项技术会让我们的员工得以实现此类任务的自动化，同时让员工有更多时间去创新，从而提高他们的生产率。 6park.com
“This technology allows our employees to automate time-consuming tasks in the fast paced nature of our business, such as content creation and customer support, while simultaneously increasing our employees’ productivity by giving them more time to innovate,” Neben said. 6park.com
  
虽然AI是一个热门话题，但研究公司Gartner去年11月表示，但AI在欧洲公司IT预算中的地位尚未体现这一热度。Gartner预计，欧洲今年的IT支出将同比增长9.3%，达到1.1万亿美元，但表示，IT并不是优先事项，公司侧重于创收、保持盈利能力或加强安全等其他目标。 6park.com
While AI is a hot topic, research firm Gartner in November said its position in European corporate IT budgets doesn’t reflect that for now. Gartner estimated IT spending in Europe would grow 9.3% this year compared with 2023 to reach $1.1 trillion, but said AI wasn’t a priority, with companies focused on other factors such as generating revenue, maintaining profitability or bolstering security. 6park.com
  
餐包公司HelloFresh投资于机器学习和AI已有六年多时间。首席技术官Valeri Liborski预计，目前仍倚重人工的决策流程将有很大一部分在未来五年里被AI优化。 6park.com
Meal-kit company HelloFresh has been investing in machine learning and AI for more than six years. Chief Technology Officer Valeri Liborski expects that, over the next five years, AI will optimize a large part of what today is still a manual decision-making process. 6park.com
   
他说，HelloFresh正投资于AI以改善需求预测、优化其履约中心并简化客服工作，希望利用该技术在市场推广内容、食谱等各个方面打造个性化的客户体验。 6park.com
HelloFresh is investing in AI to improve demand forecasting, optimize its fulfillment centers and streamline customer care, hoping to use the technology to personalize customer experience, from marketing content to recipes, he said. 6park.com
  
Liborski说：“该技术绝对不会取代创造性思维，但会提高团队的工作效率，并使其能够以更加个性化的方式更成功地响应目标群体的不同需求。” 6park.com
“The technology will by no means replace creative minds, but will make the work of the teams more efficient and enable them to respond even more individually and successfully to the different needs of the target groups,” Liborski said. 6park.com
   
荷兰国际集团的Fechner说，对一些具体的公司而言，投资AI是有道理的，但至少在未来两三年内，恐难看到宏观经济层面的热潮。她说：“如果把积极影响和消极影响都考虑在内，它不会是改变生产率大局的因素。” 6park.com
For individual companies, it makes sense to invest in AI, but it is hard to see a boom at the macroeconomic level, at least in the next two to three years, said ING’s Fechner. “It won’t be this huge game changer in terms of productivity if you consider positive effects and negative effects,” she added. 6park.com
  
为医药产品生产药瓶和包装的Gerresheimer表示，AI将帮助其优化生产、供应链管理和设备维护；该公司计划就如何在工作中利用AI对员工进行培训。 6park.com
Gerresheimer, which makes vials and packaging for pharmaceutical products, said AI would help it optimize production, supply-chain management and equipment maintenance and plans to train employees on how to leverage AI at work. 6park.com
  
Gerresheimer的一位发言人说，该公司虽然寻求推动流程数字化和自动化，但也打算于未来几年在全球范围内雇用大约3,000名员工，这表明AI不会导致员工人数减少。 6park.com
Despite its push to digitize and automate processes, Gerresheimer aims to hire roughly 3,000 employees globally in the next few years, a sign that AI won’t result in a lower headcount, a spokeswoman said. 6park.com
   
虽然一些企业坚称AI不会取代人类劳动力，但汉高的首席执行官Knobel承认，一些职位将至少是在某种程度上被AI取代。不过，他坚信AI不可能完全取代劳动者，因为该技术的发展将依赖于人类的能力。 6park.com
While some businesses insist that AI won’t replace human labor, Henkel’s CEO Knobel conceded that some roles will, at least partially, be replaced by AI. However, he is convinced that AI can’t replace workers altogether since the technology will depend on human capabilities to thrive. 6park.com
   
Knobel说：“对于像我们这样的公司来说，AI带来的机遇是多种多样的。” 6park.com
“The opportunities of AI are diverse for companies like ours,” Knobel said.