The Boom in Battery Metals for EVs Is Turning to Bust


随着电池金属价格大跌以及电动汽车销售放缓，锂和镍生产商纷纷搁置项目、关闭矿场，以节省现金。


嘉能可上周表示，将暂停新喀里多尼亚一座不盈利的镍矿和加工厂的生产。

全球市值最大锂生产商去年宣布计划在美国南卡罗来纳州投资13亿美元建厂，当时当地官员称赞这对该州具有变革性的意义。 6park.com
When the world’s most valuable lithium company last year announced plans for a $1.3 billion plant in South Carolina, local officials hailed it as transformative for the Palmetto State. 6park.com
    
总部位于北卡罗来纳州夏洛特市的雅保公司(Albemarle)的这一高科技项目旨在处理不同来源的锂，包括回收电池中的锂，并为南卡罗来纳州蓬勃发展的电动汽车产业提供这一重要的矿产资源。 6park.com
The high-tech project from Charlotte, N.C.-based Albemarle was designed to process different sources of lithium, including from recycled batteries, and serve as a supplier of the critical mineral for South Carolina’s burgeoning electric-vehicle industry.  6park.com
    
不到一年后，随着美国和中国电动汽车销售增速放缓，电池金属价格大跌，这些计划受阻。雅保在全公司范围内削减成本，包括裁员和推迟其他投资，对该项目的支出也延后。 6park.com
Less than a year later, those plans have been hobbled by a crash in battery metal prices, undercut by a slowdown in electric-vehicle sales growth in the U.S. and China. Albemarle has deferred spending on the project, amid companywide cost-cutting that includes layoffs and delays to other investments as well.  6park.com
    
在大宗商品价格急转直下后，锂镍生产商纷纷搁置项目、关闭矿场，以节省现金。锂和镍被用于电动汽车的锂离子电池。自去年年初以来，锂价跌幅高达90%，而镍价也大致腰斩。 6park.com
Producers of lithium and nickel, which are used in lithium-ion batteries for EVs, have been stalling projects and closing mines to save cash after a painfully quick fall in commodity prices. Prices of lithium are down as much as 90% since the start of last year, while the price of nickel has roughly halved.  6park.com
    6park.com
瑞士矿业和贸易巨头嘉能可(Glencore)上周表示，将暂停新喀里多尼亚一座不盈利的镍矿和加工厂的生产。新喀里多尼亚位于太平洋，是法国的海外属地之一，在全球镍供应量中占比6%以上。嘉能可将为其在该业务中所持股份寻找买家，称做出这一决定是因为高昂的运营成本和疲软的市场。 6park.com
Swiss mining and trading giant Glencore last week said production would be suspended at an unprofitable nickel mine and processing plant in New Caledonia, a French island group in the Pacific that provides more than 6% of the world’s supply. It will seek a buyer for its stake in the operation, a decision the company attributed to high operating costs and a weak market.


嘉能可镍矿运营鸟瞰图；商品价格下跌迫使一些矿山暂停生产。

几天后，全球市值最大的矿商必和必拓(BHP Group Ltd., BHP)表示，可能需要关闭其澳大利亚镍业务一段时间，并警告说预计市场不会迅速复苏。必和必拓未具体说明需要关闭的时间，该公司与特斯拉(Tesla)和福特汽车(Ford Motor)签有供应协议。 6park.com
Days later, BHP Group, the world’s biggest miner by market value, said it may need to shutter its Australian nickel business for an unspecified period, cautioning that it doesn’t anticipate a quick market recovery. BHP has supply deals with Tesla and Ford Motor. 6park.com
    6park.com
为了满足全球电动汽车行业的需求，生产商纷纷推出新项目，但与此同时电动汽车销售势头一直在减弱，全球相关金属的供应一下子过剩了。 6park.com
The world is suddenly awash with the metals after producers ramped up new projects to feed the global EV industry and sales of the vehicles have been losing momentum.  6park.com
    
包括福特、通用汽车(General Motors)和沃尔沃(Volvo)在内的几家汽车制造商正在推迟投资，并对电动汽车的消费需求前景持更加谨慎的态度。英国电动汽车制造商Arrival的英国业务本月申请破产，称严峻的宏观经济和市场环境导致其产品推迟上市。 6park.com
Several automakers, including Ford, General Motors and Volvo, are delaying investments and striking a more cautious tone about the outlook for EV consumer demand. British electric-vehicle maker Arrival’s U.K. business filed for bankruptcy this month, citing challenging macroeconomic and market conditions that delayed its products getting to market.

“全球镍市场形势严峻”

金属市场的繁荣与萧条周期司空见惯，因为需求难以预测，而新矿的开发通常需要多年时间。 6park.com
​Boom-and-bust cycles are commonplace in metals markets, given demand can be unpredictable and new mines typically take many years to develop.  6park.com
    
一些分析师认为，迄今为止的减产规模尚属温和，这可能表明一些矿商对长期需求仍持乐观态度。 6park.com
Some analysts see the scale of the cutbacks to date as subdued, a possible indication that some miners remain sanguine about longer-term demand.  6park.com
    6park.com
电动汽车的普及正在进行之中，只是没有预期那么快，金属价格大跌可能会帮助车企借助价格更亲民车型以及折扣来吸引买家，从而重新推动销售增长。如果需求迅速升温，再次导致汽车制造商争夺供应，采矿业放缓恐怕会导致这些金属供应短缺。 6park.com
EV adoption is happening, just not as fast as anticipated, and sharply lower metal prices could help automotive companies reignite sales growth by luring buyers with cheaper models and discounts. The mining slowdown risks shortages of the metals if demand quickly heats up, once again leaving carmakers scrambling for supplies.  6park.com
   
在新兴的锂行业，多数大型供应商都倾向于暂停即将启动的项目，而不是关闭现有的业务，底气来自于近年来锂价格飙升时积累的现金储备。 6park.com
Most large suppliers in the fledgling lithium industry have favored pausing coming projects over shutting down existing operations, bolstered by cash piles built up in recent years when prices for the commodity were surging.  6park.com
    
在较为成熟的镍行业，一些矿产商表示，他们别无选择，只能关闭那些难以与印尼低价出口产品竞争的不盈利矿山。Benchmark Mineral Intelligence的数据显示，这种颓势已导致澳大利亚矿物供应减少超过五分之一。该机构表示，未来可能还会有更多损失。 6park.com
In the more-established nickel industry, some miners say they have been left with no choice but to close unprofitable mines that are struggling to compete with cheap Indonesian exports. The downturn has wiped out more than a fifth of Australia’s mine supply, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which says there could be more casualties to come. 


在印尼索罗瓦科的一家镍加工厂的一名穿着防护服的工人。

澳大利亚官员上周五将镍列为关键矿产，此举将使企业有机会申请政府补助。 6park.com
Australian officials on Friday designated nickel as a critical mineral, a move that will give companies the opportunity to apply for government grants.  6park.com
   
一些西方政策制定者担心，目前的形势将破坏最近为将关键矿产供应链从中国分散出去而做出的努力。中国在全球锂提炼市场的占比已超过半壁江山，并通过大额投资带动了印尼镍矿的繁荣。官员们还担心，如果采用更严格标准的生产商因价格被挤出市场，全球市场将充斥着来自低成本但高污染矿山的金属。 6park.com
Some Western policymakers fear the current situation will derail recent efforts to diversify critical-mineral supply chains away from China, which refines more than half the world’s lithium and has spearheaded Indonesia’s nickel boom with big investments. Officials also have concerns that global markets will be full of metal from low-cost but high-polluting mines if producers with stricter standards are priced out. 6park.com
    
“全球镍市场形势严峻，在我看来，它对国家/国际安全以及环境构成了极大的威胁，”美国能源部负责电池和关键材料的副主任Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes在领英(Linkedin)上发文说。 6park.com
“The global nickel situation is dire and it is, in my view, an extreme threat to national/international security as well as the environment,” U.S. Department of Energy deputy director for batteries and critical materials Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes said in a LinkedIn post.


澳大利亚的一家硫酸镍工厂。

没有经济效益

直到最近，美国锂业巨头雅保公司一直高歌猛进，推行激进的扩张计划。现在该股比一年前下跌了57%。 6park.com
Until recently, American lithium giant Albemarle was riding high, pursuing aggressive expansion plans. Now its share price is down 57% from a year ago.  6park.com
   
雅保公司尚未透露对南卡罗来纳州拟建工厂的支出可能会推迟多久，该厂原定于今年开工，每年锂产量可供大约240万辆电动汽车使用。 6park.com
Albemarle hasn’t said how long it might hold back spending on the proposed South Carolina plant, which was supposed to begin construction this year and produce enough lithium for roughly 2.4 million electric vehicles annually.  6park.com
    6park.com
公司首席执行官Kent Masters上周对投资者表示，“按目前的价格水平，这些项目不具备经济效益”，但公司将继续寻求许可。他说，南卡罗来纳州的工厂项目是被推迟、而不是取消了，尽管该公司没有施工，也停止了相关的工程设计工作。 6park.com
Chief Executive Kent Masters told investors last week that “where prices are today, the economics aren’t there for those projects,” but that the company would continue to seek permits. He said the South Carolina plant project is delayed, not canceled, though the company isn’t doing construction and has stopped engineering work on it. 6park.com
   
Masters说，如果价格维持在当前水平，产量就会减少，最终推动价格上涨。 6park.com
If prices stay where they are, production will come off and eventually push prices upward, Masters said. 6park.com
   
一些锂生产商正试图趁着动荡的机会谋取利益。在巴西拥有业务的Sigma Lithium首席执行官Ana Cabral说，由于加工成本较低，该公司正在抢占市场份额。 6park.com
Some lithium producers are trying to take advantage of the tumult. Sigma Lithium, which has operations in Brazil, is capturing market share because of its lower costs of processing, said Chief Executive Ana Cabral.  6park.com
   
Cabral说：“我们正在投资。如果市场进一步下滑，我们将继续生产。我们赚的钱会少一些，但我们会赚钱。” 6park.com
“We’re investing. If the market dips further, we’re going to keep on producing. We’ll make less money, but we’ll make money,” Cabral said.  6park.com
    
一些镍矿商没有这样的选择。澳大利亚电池金属生产商IGO说，找不到任何可行方案维持其在西澳大利亚州的Cosmos镍矿运营。该公司将在5月底关闭该矿。 6park.com
Some nickel miners don’t have that option. IGO, an Australian battery metals producer, says it couldn’t find any way to make its Cosmos nickel operation in Western Australia viable. It will shutter that operation by the end of May. 6park.com
    
矿业高管们表示，停产任何矿山都是一个艰难的选择，矿山如果不生产任何可供销售的产品，公司每月支付的持续维护成本可能数以百万美元计算。 6park.com
Mothballing any mine is a difficult choice, mining executives say, as companies pay ongoing maintenance costs that can run into millions of dollars a month when they aren’t producing anything to sell. 6park.com
    
Peter Craig在澳大利亚的一个镍矿小镇经营一家承包公司，提供垃圾清理和其他服务。他说，此前每个人都很兴奋，因为镍在电动汽车繁荣所需的电池中找到了用武之地。他原本预计镍矿业务会持续繁荣，但现在看来，这并不是板上钉钉的事。 6park.com
“Everyone was so excited because [nickel] had found a home” in batteries needed for the EV boom, said Peter Craig, who runs a contracting business that offers garbage removal and other services from an Australian nickel-mining town. He anticipated a sustained boom that now seems less of a sure bet. 6park.com
     
“我们原本认为，未来25年镍矿前景无虞。但是，你知道，没有人能预测这些事情，”Craig说。 6park.com
“We thought, here’s the future for nickel for the next 25 years. But, you know, nobody can predict these things,” Craig said.