A Stock Bailout Won’t Solve China’s Troubles


在中国政府暗示将加大力度支撑股市后，中国股市在周二创下了数年来最佳单日表现。但重建摇摇欲坠的中国房地产市场才能给股市反弹乃至中国未来奠定更好的基础。


北京一块电子屏上显示着中国股市的数据。

中国政府的慷慨解囊或许有助于为萎靡不振的中国股市提供支撑。但重建摇摇欲坠的中国房地产市场才能给股市反弹乃至中国未来奠定更好的基础。 6park.com
Beijing’s largess might help put a floor beneath China’s ailing stock market. A better foundation for a rally—and China’s future—would be rebuilding the nation’s crumbling housing market. 6park.com
    
在中国政府暗示将加大力度支撑股市后，中国股市在周二创下了数年来最佳单日表现。追踪沪深市场大盘股的沪深300指数在过去两个交易日上涨了4.5%。追踪小盘股的沪深1000指数上涨了12%。 6park.com
Chinese stocks had their best day in years on Tuesday, after Beijing hinted that it will step up efforts to prop up the market. China’s CSI 300 index, which tracks the biggest stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has gained 4.5% in the past two trading days. The CSI 1000 index, which tracks smaller stocks, has surged 12%. 6park.com
    
中国主权财富基金旗下的中央汇金(Central Huijin)周二表示，扩大交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)增持范围。这一消息提振了此前一直大跌的小盘股。彭博(Bloomberg)一篇未经证实的报道进一步令股市沸腾，报道称，中国领导人习近平周二听取了市场监管机构的汇报。中国官方媒体周三报道，易会满被免去中国证券监督管理委员会（简称：中国证监会）党委书记、主席职务。 6park.com
Central Huijin, part of China’s sovereign-wealth fund, said Tuesday that it will expand the scale of its exchange-traded fund holdings—lighting the fire under small-cap stocks, which had been plummeting. Adding to the fervor, an unconfirmed report from Bloomberg claimed that China’s leader Xi Jinping met with market regulators on Tuesday too. On Wednesday, it was announced that the head of China’s securities regulator was stepping down. 6park.com
   
高盛(Goldman Sachs)在周一的一份报告中估计，在过去的一个月里，有国资背景的基金买入约人民币700亿元（大约相当于100亿美元）的中国股票。该行称，至少需要人民币2,000亿元才能稳定股市。 6park.com
In a Monday report, Goldman Sachs estimated that state-backed funds have bought around 70 billion yuan, the equivalent of roughly $10 billion, of Chinese stocks in the past month. At least 200 billion yuan is needed to stabilize the market, according to the bank. 6park.com
   
考虑到“国家队”大举入市，以及公众持股量相对较小和估值已经偏低的情况，中国政府可能至少在一段时间内能稳住股市。中国政府还有很多其他工具可供使用，比如禁止大股东抛售股票等。 6park.com
Given the large state presence in the market, a relatively small public float and already cheap valuations, it’s possible Beijing could steady the ship—at least for a while. The government also has plenty of other tools at its disposal, like banning major shareholders from selling. 6park.com
   
但如果中国政府真的计划部署人民币数千亿元（这一前景尚不确定），股市会是其最佳选择吗？答案几乎肯定是否定的。 6park.com
But if Beijing is really planning to deploy hundreds of billions of yuan—still an uncertain prospect—is the stock market the best place for them? The answer is almost certainly no.



上一次中国政府为阻止市场下跌而使出浑身解数是在2015年，当时中国也面临着房地产严重低迷的局面。但两者之间存在着关键的差异。 6park.com
The last time Beijing pulled out all the stops to stem a market decline in 2015, China was also facing an ugly housing downturn. But there are crucial differences. 6park.com
   
那时，股市本身就是不稳定的一大根源。2015年初，随着散户甚至上市公司本身在官方媒体的加油助威下匆忙入市，对股票的杠杆押注急剧上升。沪深300指数在不到一年的时间里翻了一倍多，在2015年6月达到顶峰。股市融资余额增长四倍多，达到2.3万亿元。当泡沫破灭时，随着投资者抛售股票或其他资产以偿还债务，这引发造成恶性循环的风险。 6park.com
Back then, the stock market itself was a big source of instability: Leveraged bets on stocks had skyrocketed in early 2015 as individual investors, and even listed companies themselves, rushed into the market, cheered along by state media. The CSI 300 more than doubled in less than a year before peaking in June 2015. Outstanding margin loans more than quintupled to 2.3 trillion yuan. When the bubble deflated, that risked creating a vicious cycle as investors sold stocks—or other assets—to repay debts. 6park.com
    
如今，股市融资余额比之前的峰值低了近40%，而且一直在走低。这次的市场崩溃，并不是因为不断收缩的股市融资泡沫威胁到了金融稳定，而是与现实息息相关，它反映了人们对结构性增长放缓、房地产市场缓慢内爆和政策不确定性的担忧。 6park.com
These days, outstanding margin loans are nearly 40% below their previous peak and have been drifting lower. Rather than a deflating margin bubble threatening financial stability, the market collapse this time is firmly anchored in reality. It reflects worries about a structural growth slowdown, the slow-motion implosion of the real-estate market and policy uncertainty.



让市场恢复活力所需的巨额资金更好的去处是投向房地产行业。2023年中国房地产投资同比下降了近10%，而住宅销售额下降了6%。克而瑞(China Real Estate Information)的数据显示，1月中国百强房企销售操盘金额同比下降34%；这是至少自2020年7月以来表现最差的一个月。 6park.com
The gigantic sums of money that would be needed to shock the market back to life would be better put to work in the real-estate sector. Property investment dropped nearly 10% year on year in 2023 while home sales by value fell 6%. Sales from the country’s top 100 largest developers fell 34% in January from a year earlier, making it the worst month since at least July 2020, according to China Real Estate Information. 6park.com
   
保交楼是重振消费者信心的关键。这可能意味着直接对一些规模更大、更健康的房地产开发商进行资本重组，让他们有足够的资金来完成同业的未完工项目，并让银行和家庭有信心把现金交给他们。 6park.com
Ensuring the timely delivery of unbuilt apartments that households have already bought is the key to reviving consumer confidence. That would probably mean directly recapitalizing some larger, healthier property developers—giving them the wherewithal to complete the languishing projects of their peers, and giving banks and households the confidence to trust them with their cash. 6park.com
    
这涉及的金额将是巨大的：研究公司龙洲经讯(GaveKal Dragonomics) 11月发布的一份报告估计，即使在2022年，交付所有这些公寓楼也需要大约人民币1万亿元的资金支持。但在家庭主要资产的价值和安全性仍然如此不确定的情况下，家庭很难会有信心去消费和投资：自2021年年中以来，股市和住宅销售或多或少地在同步下跌。 6park.com
The sums involved would be large: A November note from research firm Gavekal Dragonomics estimated that even in 2022, delivering all those apartments would have required a backstop of around one trillion yuan. But the idea that households will have the confidence to spend and invest while the value and safety of their main asset remains so murky is questionable at best: The stock market and floor-space sales have moved down more or less in tandem since mid-2021. 6park.com
   
向股市投入数以十亿计美元资金可能会让股市止跌，至少暂时如此。但这只是治标不治本。 6park.com
Throwing billions into the stock market may arrest its decline, at least for a while. But that would be treating the symptoms, not the disease.