China’s Population Decline Accelerated Last Year


2023年末中国人口为14.10亿，减少了208万，是2022年减少量的两倍多；与此同时，出生人口继续大幅下降。


过去一年，中国人口减少了208万，是2022年减少量的两倍多。

去年，中国人口加速减少，加剧了对中国政府来说日益紧迫的人口危机。 6park.com
China’s population decline accelerated last year, worsening a demographic gloom that has taken on increasing urgency for Beijing. 6park.com
    
中国国家统计局周三称，2023年末全国人口为14.10亿，低于2022年末的14.12亿。2022年，中国触及了一个历史性的转折点：自20世纪60年代初的大饥荒以来人口首次减少。 6park.com
China ended 2023 with 1.410 billion people, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, down from 1.412 billion in 2022, when it hit a historic turning point: the first year the population shrank since starvation years in the early 1960s.  6park.com
   
过去一年，中国人口减少了208万，是2022年减少量的两倍多。 6park.com
Over the past year, China’s population dropped by 2.08 million, more than twice the drop in 2022. 6park.com
    
出生人口在过去几年直线下降，2023年该指标从2022年的956万人下滑至902万人。最新数字还不到中国取消独生子女政策后2016年出生人口数量的一半。最新数据显示，中国的生育率接近1.0，人口学家认为这是一个“超低”水平。生育率指每个妇女一生平均生育子女数。 6park.com
The number of newborns, which has gone into free fall over the past several years, slid to 9.02 million from 9.56 million in 2022. The latest number represents less than half the babies born in 2016, after China abolished the one-child policy. The latest numbers point to a fertility rate—the number of children a woman has over her lifetime—at close to 1.0—a level considered by demographers as “ultralow.”



经济逆风令情况雪上加霜。另一个潜在因素是，中国在2022年底突然解除了新冠防控措施，可能导致了去年年初死亡人口数量的急剧上升。 6park.com
Economic headwinds didn’t help the situation. Another possible factor was China’s sudden abandonment of Covid-restrictions at the end of 2022, which might have led to a sharp rise in deaths early last year.  6park.com
   
中国国家统计局的数据显示，2023年全国死亡人口增至1,110万人，2022年为1,041万人。该统计局不公布月度死亡人口数据。 6park.com
The statistics bureau, which doesn’t break out deaths by month, said the number of deaths increased to 11.10 million in 2023 from 10.41 million in 2022.  6park.com
   
中国去年被印度超越，失去了数百年来世界上人口最多国家的地位，而且不太可能扭转新生儿数量下降的趋势。受实行了数十年的独生子女政策影响，当前中国年轻人数量比过去几代要少，其中育龄女性每年减少数百万。 6park.com
China last year ceded its centuries-old position as the world’s most populous country to India and is unlikely to be able to reverse the trend of declining births. Because of the decadeslong one-child policy, there are fewer young people than in past generations, including millions fewer women of childbearing age every year. 6park.com
    
广东的独立人口学家何亚福说，最新数据显示，中国的生育率不到2.1的人口替代率的一半。他说，这意味着每一代人的规模都将不到上一代人的一半。 6park.com
The latest data shows that the fertility rate is less than half of the replacement rate of 2.1, said He Yafu, an independent demographer based in Guangdong. That means that each generation will be less than half the size of the previous generation, he said. 6park.com
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此外，许多女性越来越不愿意结婚生子，相较于政府号召和亲属愿望，她们更看重实现自己的人生目标。面对这种情况，急需重振国内老龄化人口活力的中共发起了构建生育友好型社会文化的活动。 6park.com
In addition, many women are increasingly reluctant to marry and have children, putting their own life goals ahead of what Beijing and relatives want, a situation that has prompted the Communist Party, which desperately needs to rejuvenate China’s aging population, to embark on a campaign for a “birth-friendly culture.”  6park.com
   
去年，经济不确定性促使许多中国年轻夫妇推迟了生孩子的计划，这加重了女性不愿生育的情绪。中国与美国的情形有所不同，在美国，新冠疫情对人口的影响持续减弱，而在中国取消新冠防疫限制措施后，原本预计会出现的出生率小幅上升却未能成真。 6park.com
Adding to women’s reluctance to have children was economic uncertainty last year, which pushed many young Chinese couples to postpone plans to start a family. And unlike in the U.S., where population effects from the pandemic continued to fade, what had been expected to be a slight uptick in births after China dropped its Covid-19 restrictions failed to materialize.


中国国家统计局的数据显示，2023年全国死亡人口增至1,110万人。

在2022年末的一系列抗议活动之后，中国政府骤然取消了“动态清零”政策；该政策曾使许多人待在家里不能出门，而且大量经济活动受到阻滞。中国尚未全面说明这项政策逆转带来的影响，包括是否导致死亡人数急剧上升。官方已停止发布能够让人对该问题有一定了解的数据，比如遗体火化数量。 6park.com
After a series of protests in late 2022, Beijing abruptly dropped its Covid policies, which had kept many people homebound and stifled much economic activity. China hasn’t given a full accounting of the impact of the policy reversal, including whether it led to a sharp rise in deaths. Officials have stopped publishing data that can shed light on the issue, such as the number of cremations. 6park.com
   
去年发表在美国医学会(American Medical Association)期刊《JAMA Network Open》上的一项基于讣告和搜索引擎数据的经同行评审研究估计，在中国于2022年12月初取消“动态清零”政策后的头两个月中，30岁及以上成年人的超额死亡人数为187万。 6park.com
A peer-reviewed study based on obituary and search-engine data and published in JAMA Network Open, an American Medical Association journal, last year estimated excess deaths among adults 30 or older at 1.87 million in the first two months following Beijing’s abandonment of the zero-Covid policy in early December 2022. 6park.com
    
经济挑战料将继续存在。中国政府周三公布，去年经济同比增速为5.2%，低于疫情前逾6%的增长水平，反映出房地产行业不景气和消费者支出疲软。青年失业率去年飙升至创纪录的21%，进一步抑制了年轻人生孩子的意愿。 6park.com
Economic challenges are likely to continue. China said Wednesday its economy grew 5.2% last year from a year earlier, slower than prepandemic levels of over 6%, reflecting an ailing property sector and soft consumer spending. Youth unemployment skyrocketed to a record of 21% last year, further damping young people’s willingness to start a family. 6park.com
   
根据中国国务院下属智库发展研究中心去年年底发布的一份研究报告，未来几十年，中国出生人口可能每十年减少100万。 6park.com
For the coming decades, the number of newborns is likely to drop by one million each decade, according to a research report released by the Development and Research Center, a think tank under the State Council, China’s cabinet, late last year.


在一系列抗议活动之后，中国于2022年末取消了曾使许多人待在家里不能出门，而且大量经济活动受到阻滞的“动态清零”政策。

与其他主要经济体相比，中国在经济发展过程中人口老龄化的时间要早得多。根据该报告，在中国人口首次开始减少的2022年，中国人均GDP约为12,000美元，仅略高于日本人口开始减少时人均GDP的三分之一。 6park.com
China’s population is aging much earlier in its economic development than other major economies. China’s per capita gross domestic product in 2022, when its population first started shrinking, was around $12,000, just above one-third of Japan’s when it began seeing population declines, the report said. 6park.com
   
在以人口老龄化着称的日本，更多的老年人留在了劳动力队伍中，帮助日本在人口减少的情况下保持劳动者数量稳定。中国政府多年来一直在讨论提高退休年龄，但迟迟没有行动。中国的退休年龄在主要经济体中属于最低行列。 6park.com
In Japan, known for its aging population, more elderly people have stayed in the workforce, helping to keep the number of workers stable even as the population declines. Beijing has for years talked about raising the retirement age—one of the lowest among major economies—but has repeatedly postponed the move. 6park.com
   
目前，60岁及以上老年人口数量占中国总人口的20%。大多数中国人都会在60岁退休，至少在城市是如此。 6park.com
One out of every five Chinese is now 60 or older, the age when most Chinese, at least in cities, retire. 6park.com
   
美国也面临人口老龄化问题。美国人口普查局的数据显示，美国65岁及以上人口占总人口的17.7%，而中国这一比例约为15%。但中国正快速赶上。联合国基于中国2020年人口普查数据估计，到2050年和2100年，中国65岁及以上老年人口的比例将分别达到30%和41%。联合国对同期美国该年龄段人口的比例预测分别为24%和30%。 6park.com
The U.S. is also facing an aging population. In the U.S., 17.7% of the population was 65 or older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, compared with around 15% in China. But China is quickly catching up. The portions of Chinese 65 or older will be 30% and 41% by 2050 and 2100, respectively, according to United Nations estimates, which are based on China’s 2020 census data. The U.N.’s projections for that age group in the U.S. is 24% and 30%, respectively. 6park.com
   
与中国老年人、尤其是农村地区的老人不同，许多美国老年人的经济状况相对较好。此外，移民有助于补充美国的劳动力，而中国几乎没有移民。去年，外国出生的劳动者在美国劳动力中所占比例有所上升，有助于抵消潜在的劳动力短缺。 6park.com
And unlike Chinese seniors, especially in rural areas, many older Americans are in relatively good financial shape. Also, immigrants help replenish the U.S. workforce, while in China immigration is practically nonexistent. Foreign-born workers’ share of the U.S. labor force rose last year, helping to offset potential labor shortages.


现在，每五个中国人中就有一个是60岁或以上的老人。

中国近3亿农民工是国内劳动力的支柱，他们的平均年龄从2012年的37.3岁上升到2022年的42.3岁（最新官方数据）。 6park.com
The average age of China’s nearly 300 million migrant workers, the pillar of its labor force, increased to 42.3 in 2022, the latest official data available, from 37.3 in 2012. 6park.com
   
中国政府多年来都表示人口老龄化未必会拖累经济，并一直在努力推动官员们所说的“银发经济”产业，即从食品供应到医疗保健等专注于老年人照护的行业。 6park.com
Beijing has for years said that aging isn’t necessarily a drag on the economy and has tried to boost what officials dubbed as the “silver-haired economy,” or industries focused on elderly care, from serving food to medical care. 6park.com
    
根据中国国务院周一发布的指导方针，新建居住区的开发商必须规划设置养老服务设施。国务院表示，中央政府支持利用闲置仓库等存量场所改建养老服务设施。指导方针没有提供详细的政策。 6park.com
Developers of new residential compounds must set aside land for elderly-care purposes, according to guidelines released by the State Council on Monday. The central government will support converting idle land, such as abandoned warehouses, into elderly-care facilities, the cabinet said. The guidelines didn’t offer detailed policies. 6park.com
   
为鼓励生育，地方政府尝试了从安排相亲到现金奖励等各式各样的办法。去年，武汉市的一个区为生育三孩的家庭提供了每年人民币1万元（约合1,395美元）的育儿补贴，最长可享受至6周岁。 6park.com
To encourage more births, local governments have tried everything from matchmaking to cash incentives. A district of the city of Wuhan last year offered couples who have a third child 10,000 yuan ($1,395) a year for the child’s first six years. 6park.com
   
中国央行学术顾问蔡昉去年年底在一篇文章中写道，人口发展的新常态意味着未来需求侧，特别是居民消费成为中国经济增长的常态制约。 6park.com
“The new demographic reality means that the demand side, especially household consumption, has increasingly become a persistent constraint on economic growth,” Cai Fang, an academic adviser to China’s central bank, wrote in an essay late last year. 6park.com
   
蔡昉写道，政府应跳出传统的政策框架，通过促进就业和提高居民收入来鼓励生育。 6park.com
Authorities should think outside the traditional policy box and encourage births by boosting employment and raising household incomes, Cai wrote. 6park.com
    
哈佛大学(Harvard University)名誉社会学教授Martin Whyte去年在独立的中美交流基金会(China-United States Exchange Foundation)主办的中美焦点网站上发文说，与其追求更高的出生率，中国应把重点放在改善人民福利上，比如扩大农村青年受教育的机会和减少性别歧视。 6park.com
Martin Whyte, a sociology professor emeritus at Harvard University, said in an essay in China-US Focus, run by the independent China-United States Exchange Foundation, last year that instead of pursuing higher birthrates, China should focus on improving the welfare of its people, such as expanding education opportunities for rural youths and reducing gender discrimination.